ABSTRACT The geopolitical vortex initiated by potential Iranian regime collapse in early 2026 cascades through hybrid proxy architectures, exposing Iraq’s systemic fragilities while opening narrow windows for sovereignty reclamation. Bayesian priors anchored in live-verified Tier-1 forensics project 65-85% probability of abrupt IRGC exodus across the 1,458-kilometer porous frontier, overwhelming Iraqi Border Forces capacities absent preemptive … Leggi tutto Iraq’s Post-Iranian Regime Shift: Proxy Militia Autonomy, Border Vulnerabilities and Sovereignty Reclamation in 2026