Scope. United States; Treasury-market conditions through 11 September 2026; assessment of the rise in long-duration sovereign yields against competing explanations involving the Iran conflict, inflation, the $40 trillion gross-debt milestone, structural fiscal dynamics, Treasury buybacks and the announced $5,000-per-adult “Trump Dividend.” The analytical horizon for later scenario work is five years. Executive Summary / BLUF … Leggi tutto U.S. Treasury Stress Near 5%: Iran, Inflation, Fiscal Supply and the Limits of the “$40 Trillion / Trump Dividend” Narrative