ABSTRACT Negotiation dynamics in the Russia–Ukraine war have increasingly been shaped less by short-run battlefield narratives than by interacting structural constraints on state capacity, fiscal endurance, energy revenues, governance, and external financing. The most reliable, publicly verifiable record of these constraints, as of December 2025, is found in joint damage-and-needs accounting by multilateral institutions, macro-financial … Leggi tutto War Termination Under Dual Strain: Negotiation Incentives and Structural Constraints in the Russia–Ukraine Conflict