Executive Summary Between April and June 2026, Hizballah ran a calibrated escalation campaign — rockets paired with cheap, jam-resistant fiber-optic drones — that kept the Israel-Lebanon front just short of full war. The strategy worked as coercive signaling, not attrition: strikes tracked Israeli behavior almost attack-for-attack, surging after Israel’s Litani River crossing and easing whenever … Leggi tutto Hizballah’s Risk Strategy and the Trap of Linkage: How Lebanon Became Load-Bearing in the U.S.-Iran Deal