The defense system Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) US is a real threat to the Russian low-altitude spacecraft in the near future

The US global missile defense system will threaten virtually all low Earth orbit spacecraft within the next 10-12 years, Russian experts Alexey Fenenko and Konstantin Sivkov told RIA Novosti.

The experts suggested that one of the solutions to counter the threat is the development of similar systems by Russia.

The US anti-ballistic missile defense (ABM) system is likely to pose a real threat to the Russian low-altitude spacecraft in the near future, experts told RIA Novosti.

They believe it may prompt Russia to begin developing similar systems.

Speaking at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, the Russian General Staff’s Deputy Chief Lt. Gen. Viktor Poznikhir warned that virtually all low Earth orbit space will soon fall within the US global missile defense system’s killing zone.

That means that the space activities of any country, including Russia and China, will be under threat, Gen. Poznikhir highlighted.

Speaking to RIA Novosti, Alexey Fenenko, Associate Professor at Moscow State University’s World Politics Department, emphasized that the US missile defense system will really threaten the Russian orbital grouping of satellites in the next 10-12 years.

“This could become a threat in just 10-12 years, but Russia, unfortunately, has yet to take action; meanwhile China is developing its own anti-satellite weapons, and we will have to do the same,” Fenenko said.

According to Fenenko, the US continues to conduct tests of anti-satellite weapons within the framework of the country’s ABM program.

“The first time they tested it was in 1985; the second test was conducted in 2008. In addition, the US national space strategy of 2006 stressed the necessity of creating weapons able to destroy an adversary’s satellites as part of US missile defense [capabilities],” the Russian academic explained.

He also recalled that within the framework of its Prompt Global Strike project, the US carried out several unsuccessful attempts to test the so-called “space weapon” — low Earth orbit vehicles. However, following a series of unsuccessful tests, Washington has shifted its focus to anti-satellite systems (ASAT).

Russian military expert and First Vice President of the Academy of Geopolitical Studies Konstantin Sivkov echoes Fenenko, suggesting that the threat posed by the US missile defense may prompt Moscow to develop a system which would be able to hit US low Earth orbit spacecraft at a distance of thousands of kilometers.

“The Americans have carried out tests of their SM-3 missile, and they have managed to shoot down a satellite. We need to create our own missile systems,” Sivkov told RIA Novosti.

He specified that Russia needs to design systems which would be able to shoot down satellites at a distance of hundreds or thousands of kilometers.

“The S-500 [Prometey anti-ballistic missile system] was designed as a missile defense system for the theater of war; we need a system that would hit satellites in quasi-stationary orbit drifting a few thousand kilometers above the Earth,” Sivkov suggested.

The S-500 is a new generation surface-to-air missile system and not an upgraded S-400 or S-300 system.

It is designed for intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles and for air defense against Airborne Early Warning and Control and jamming aircraft.

With a planned range of 600 km (370 mi) for Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) and 400 km (250 mi) for the air defense, the S-500 would be able to detect and simultaneously engage up to 10 ballistic supersonic targets flying at a speed of 5 kilometres per second (3.1 mi/s; 18,000 km/h; 11,000 mph) to a limit of 7 km/s (4.3 mi/s; 25,000 km/h; 16,000 mph). Almaz Antey has already spent six years on the project and they are reporting that the missiles now have an instrumental height of 185 km (115 mi) and a range of 3,500 km (2,200 mi) or more, and is able to intercept ballistic missiles at a height of up to 200 km (120 mi).

The system will have a response time of about three to four seconds, which is considerably shorter than the S-400 which is rated at nine to ten seconds. It also has an extended radar range compared to S-400.
The first development of the S-500 was started in 2009 with first prototype completed in 2012.

In 2011, Almaz-Antey has announced that the first production system of the S-500 will be completed in 2014. In December 2015, the newspaper website Spunik has released that the Russian Armed Forces could receive the first preproduction prototypes of the next-generation S-500 air defense system in 2016.
The S-500 Prometheus is expected to use the following radars: the 91N6A(M) acquisition and battle management radar, the revised 96L6-TsP acquisition radar, and the new 76T6 multimode engagement and 77T6 ABM engagement radars.

The 96L6-TsP Acquisition Radar is a direct derivative of the 96L6-1 series used an a battery acquisition radar in the S-400. Battle management and ABM acquisition will be performed by the 91N6A(M) Big Bird Acquisition and Battle Management Radar, an evolution of the 64N6E series, typically used to support multiple S-300P/S-400 batteries.

Two battery command post types are listed, the 55K6MA which is clearly an evolution of the S-400 55K6E battery command post, and the 85Zh6-2, which may refer to a command post for an extended battery.
The 77P6 Self Propelled Transporter Erector Launcher of S-500 Prometheus appears to be based on the proposed 9A82MK TELAR for the S-300VMK 9M82M Giant missile.

According to the first drawing releases on the Almaz-Antey 2015 Calendar, the S-500 TEL is equipped with two Missile Launch Tube / Transport Container mounted at the rear of the truck chassis.

In firing position, two hydraulic jacks are lowered to the ground on each side of the truck chassis and the missiles containers are placed at the vertical to the rear side.
The S-500 Prometheus uses two new types of missile the 77N6-N and 77N6-N1, the first Russian missiles with inert warheads, which can destroy nuclear warheads by force of impact, i.e., by hitting them with precision at great speed. No explosives are needed: Russian engineers’ estimates show that a collision at a speed of 7km/s would be sure to destroy just about any flying object.
All battery components of the S-500 Prometheus are carried on hardened BZKT BAZ-6909 family vehicles, in 6 x 6, 8 x 8, 10 x 10 configurations.

The BAZ-6909 is a family of all-terrain truck chassis produced and manufactured by the Russian Company Bryansk Motor Vehicle Plant.

This family includes 6×6, 8×8, 10×10 heavy high mobility trucks, prime movers, artillery tractors, with a payload capacity of 13-21 t.

The mobile launcher unit TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) is based on the chassis of BAZ-69096 trucks in 10×10 configuration. The BAZ-6909 can run at a maximum speed of 70 km/h with a maximum cruising range of 500 km.

Some sources report, that the S-500 system can detect ballistic missile at a range of 2 000 km and warheads of ballistic missiles at a range of 1 300 km.

It can defeat ballistic missiles before their warheads re-enter atmosphere.
It has been reported that there is also an S-1000 system being developed in Russia. Possibly it is a modification of the S-500.

Sivkov emphasized that Russia is currently not involved in developing these systems; however, according to the military analyst, the US efforts to bolster its missile defense may force Russia to kick off such a project.

Previously, in his January interview with RIA Novosti, Sivkov drew attention to US Air Force Gen. John E. Hyten’s calls for “deterrence in space.”

Gen. Hyten claimed that “in the not-so-distant future” Moscow and Beijing will be able to threaten US spacecraft.

“We have to prevent that and the best way to prevent war is to be prepared for war. So the United States is going to do that, and we’re going to make sure that everybody knows we’re prepared for war,” Hyten said in his speech at Stanford University’s Center for Security and Cooperation.

Stressing that Hyten’s claims bear no relation to reality, Sivkov warned that the Pentagon is about to start a new arms race.

“In fact this is the way to justify the beginning of the large-scale militarization of space by the United States, under the pretext of a Russian or Chinese threat,” the Russian expert stressed.

Ballistic Missile Basics

Ballistic missiles are powered by rockets initially but then follow an unpowered, parabolic trajectory toward their target. They are classified by the maximum distance that they can travel, which is a function of how powerful the missile’s engines (rockets) are and the weight of the missile’s warhead. To add more distance to a missile’s range, rockets are stacked on top of each other in a configuration referred to as staging.

Four classifications of ballistic missiles:

• Short-range ballistic missiles, traveling less than 1,000 kilometers (approximately 620 miles)
• Medium-range ballistic missiles, traveling between 1,000–3,000 kilometers (approximately 620-1,860 miles)
• Intermediate-range ballistic missiles, traveling between 3,000–5,500 kilometers (approximately 1,860-3,410 miles)
• Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), traveling more than 5,500 kilometers (approximately 3,410 miles)

Short- and medium-range ballistic missiles are referred to as “theater” ballistic missiles, whereas ICBMs or long-range ballistic missiles are described as “strategic” ballistic missiles. The ABM Treaty had prohibited the development of large-scale, nationwide strategic defenses, but permitted development of theater missile defenses, as well as single-site strategic defenses.

Three stages of flight:

Boost Phase:

• Begins at launch and lasts until the rocket engines stop firing and pushing the missile away from Earth.
• Depending on the missile, lasts between three and five minutes.
• Generally the missile is traveling relatively slowly, although toward the end of this stage an ICBM can reach speeds of more than 24,000 kilometers per hour. Most of this phase takes place in the atmosphere (endoatmospheric).

Midcourse Phase:

• Begins after the rockets finish firing and the missile is on a ballistic course toward its target.
• Longest stage of a missile’s flight, lasting up to 20 minutes for ICBMs.
• During the early part of the midcourse stage, the missile is still ascending toward its apogee, while during the latter part it is descending toward Earth.
• During this stage the missile’s warhead(s), as well as any decoys, separate from the delivery platform, or “bus.” This phase takes place in space (exoatmospheric).

Terminal phase:

• Begins when the missile’s warhead re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere (endoatmospheric), and it continues until impact or detonation.
• This stage takes less than a minute for a strategic warhead, which can be traveling at speeds greater than 3,200 kilometers per hour.

Elements of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System

The following charts provides a brief look at some of the major missile defense programs maintained by the United States. It contains information on what type of ballistic missile each defense would be intended to counter and at which stage of the enemy missile’s flight an attempted intercept would take place. Also included are Pentagon estimates on when each defense may have an initial, rudimentary capability as well as when it could be fully operational.