In a dramatic escalation of its ongoing conflict with Houthi rebels, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a series of airstrikes on key infrastructure in Yemen, following a deadly drone attack on Tel Aviv. The operation, named “Operation Outstretched Arm,” targeted vital fuel storage and infrastructure at the port of Hudaydah on the Red Sea, a crucial hub for Houthi logistics and supplies.
Background and Context
The Houthi Threat
The Houthi rebels, a Shia militant group based in Yemen, have been engaged in a prolonged conflict with the internationally recognized Yemeni government and a coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia. Over the years, the Houthis have received substantial support from Iran, including advanced weaponry and training, which has enabled them to mount sophisticated attacks against their adversaries. This support has included ballistic missiles, drones, and other advanced military technologies.
Comprehensive Technical Data Summary: Iranian Missile Systems Potentially Provided to Yemen for Attacks on Israel
| Missile Model | Type | Range (km) | Warhead (kg) | Speed (Mach) | Guidance System | Launch Platform | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qiam-1 | SRBM (Short-Range) | 800 | 750 | 2.5 | Inertial Navigation System (INS), Terminal Guidance | Mobile Launcher | Improved accuracy over the Shahab-2; detachable warhead for maneuverability. |
| Shahab-3 | MRBM (Medium-Range) | 1,300 | 1,200 | 7-8 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Based on North Korean No Dong missile, capable of reaching Israel from western Yemen. |
| Zelzal-2 | SRBM | 200 | 600 | 4 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | High-explosive warhead; suitable for targeting military bases and large installations. |
| Zolfaghar | SRBM | 700 | 500 | 3.5 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Highly accurate with a potential cluster munition warhead. |
| Fateh-110 | SRBM | 300 | 500 | 3.5 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Solid-fueled, making it quick to deploy and difficult to intercept. |
| Fateh-313 | SRBM | 500 | 500 | 4 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Upgraded version of Fateh-110 with greater range and accuracy. |
| Sejjil-2 | MRBM | 2,000 | 500 | 14-15 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Solid-fueled with quick launch capability; capable of reaching all of Israel. |
| Soumar | Cruise Missile | 2,500 | 400 | Subsonic | TERCOM, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Based on the Russian Kh-55; long-range precision strike capability. |
| Ghadr-110 | MRBM | 1,800 | 700 | 7-8 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Enhanced version of Shahab-3 with better accuracy and payload. |
| Emad | MRBM | 1,700 | 750 | 7-8 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Improved version of Ghadr with terminal guidance system for high accuracy. |
| Khaybar Shekan | MRBM | 1,450 | 700 | 4-5 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Newly developed with a focus on mobility and precision. |
| Raad-500 | SRBM | 500 | 200 | 4 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Light-weight missile, improved range and accuracy over Fateh-110. |
| Hoveyzeh | Cruise Missile | 1,350 | 500 | Subsonic | TERCOM, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Ground-launched variant of the Soumar; designed for long-range precision attacks. |
| Qadr-F | MRBM | 2,000 | 650 | 14-15 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads; long-range. |
| Hormoz-2 | Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) | 300 | 400 | 3 | Active Radar Homing | Mobile Launcher | Designed to target naval vessels; could be used against coastal targets. |
| Badr-1P | SRBM | 150 | 300 | 3.5 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Improved version of Badr-1 with better accuracy; used in precision strikes. |
| Arash | Artillery Rocket | 200 | 250 | 3.5 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Long-range artillery rocket with precision strike capability. |
| Nasr-1 | Anti-Ship Cruise Missile | 35 | 150 | Subsonic | Active Radar Homing | Naval, Coastal Batteries | Coastal defense missile; could be used for short-range precision strikes. |
| Ya Ali | Cruise Missile | 700 | 200 | Subsonic | TERCOM, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Medium-range cruise missile with precision strike capability. |
| Toufan | Anti-Ship Missile | 25 | 200 | Subsonic | Active Radar Homing | Naval, Coastal Batteries | Short-range coastal defense missile; can target maritime and land-based targets. |
| Haj Qassem | SRBM | 1,400 | 500 | 3.5 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Newly unveiled, named after Qassem Soleimani, designed for strategic precision strikes. |
| Naze’at | SRBM | 100-130 | 200-300 | 3.5 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Used for targeting military bases and large installations; solid-fuel rocket. |
| Tondar | SRBM | 150 | 200 | 3 | INS, GPS | Mobile Launcher | Based on Chinese M-11; used for short-range precision strikes. |
Range and Payload Capabilities: The provided missiles offer a broad range of capabilities, from short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) like the Badr-1P and Zelzal-2, to medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) such as the Shahab-3 and Sejjil-2, and even long-range cruise missiles like the Soumar and Hoveyzeh. These missiles can strike targets from 25 km (Toufan) to 2,500 km (Soumar), enabling the Houthis to target various strategic locations in Israel.
Guidance Systems: Most of these missiles are equipped with inertial navigation systems (INS) and GPS guidance, enhancing their accuracy. Some advanced systems like the Emad and Qiam-1 also include terminal guidance systems, further improving precision.
Launch Platforms: These missiles are predominantly launched from mobile platforms, making them harder to detect and intercept. This mobility allows for quick redeployment and launch from various locations, complicating defensive efforts.
Potential Targets and Impact: The strategic targets for these missiles could include Israeli military bases, critical infrastructure such as power plants, and major population centers. The use of anti-ship missiles like the Hormoz-2 and Nasr-1 can also target Israeli naval vessels and coastal facilities.
Since October 2023, the Houthis have launched over 220 long-range weapons at Israel, significantly escalating their offensive capabilities. The drone strike on Tel Aviv, which triggered the latest Israeli response, highlighted the growing threat posed by the Houthis and their ability to strike targets far beyond their traditional sphere of influence. The drone, a modified Samad-3, flew an indirect route of approximately 1,600 miles over Eastern Africa, including Egypt, before approaching Tel Aviv from the west. This complex flight path demonstrated the Houthis’ increasing sophistication in evading detection and interception.
Israel’s Strategic Response
In response to the escalating threat, Israel has bolstered its defensive measures, including increasing its radar operator force and enhancing its integrated air defense systems. Israel’s air defense network is renowned for its density and effectiveness, incorporating advanced technologies such as the Arrow 3 system, which successfully intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile following the initial strikes on Hudaydah.
The decision to target Hudaydah was driven by the port’s strategic importance to the Houthi war effort. The port serves as a critical entry point for weapons and supplies from Iran, which are then distributed to Houthi forces across Yemen. By crippling the port’s infrastructure, Israel aimed to disrupt these supply lines and send a clear message to the Houthis and their Iranian backers.
The Operation: Execution and Impact
Target Selection and Strategy
Operation Outstretched Arm focused on several key objectives within Hudaydah, with the primary goal of crippling the port’s fuel storage facilities and dockside infrastructure. The targets included:
- Fuel Storage Facilities: These facilities are crucial for maintaining the Houthi’s operational capabilities, providing the necessary fuel for their military vehicles and equipment. Destroying these reserves would significantly hinder their ability to conduct sustained operations.
- Dockside Cranes: The port’s two large overhead cranes are essential for unloading cargo from ships. Damaging these cranes would slow down the port’s operations, affecting the delivery of humanitarian aid and other imports.
Execution of the Airstrikes
The IDF deployed a combination of F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighters, along with KC-707 tanker aircraft, to carry out the strikes. The operation showcased Israel’s ability to conduct complex, long-range missions with precision and effectiveness.
Use of Precision-Guided Munitions
The strikes employed precision-guided munitions such as the Delilah air-launched cruise missile and the SPICE 2000 guided bomb. These weapons are equipped with man-in-the-loop (MITL) control systems, allowing for precise targeting even at standoff distances. This capability was crucial in minimizing collateral damage and ensuring that the strikes effectively neutralized the intended targets.
High-Resolution Satellite Imagery
Post-strike satellite imagery provided by Maxar Technologies and Planet Labs revealed the extent of the damage inflicted on the target area. The majority of the fuel storage facilities were completely destroyed, and the dockside cranes were severely damaged. This imagery underscored the effectiveness of the Israeli airstrikes and their impact on the Houthi’s logistical capabilities.
SATELLITE IMAGE ©2024 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES
A handout picture obtained from Yemen’s Houthi Ansarullah Media Center show a huge column of fire erupting following strikes in the Yemeni rebel-held port city of Hodeida on July 20, 2024. (ANSARULLAH MEDIA CENTRE / AFP)
Broader Implications and Reactions
Humanitarian Impact
The destruction of Hudaydah’s infrastructure has significant humanitarian implications. The port handles approximately 80 percent of all humanitarian aid and the majority of foreign imports into Yemen. The damage to the fuel storage facilities and dockside cranes will likely disrupt these vital supply lines, exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation in Yemen.
Houthi Retaliation
In response to the Israeli airstrikes, the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel, which was intercepted by the IDF’s Arrow 3 system. This swift retaliation highlights the ongoing volatility of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.
International Reactions
The international community has expressed mixed reactions to the Israeli operation. Some countries have condemned the strikes, citing concerns over the humanitarian impact and the potential for further destabilizing the region. Others have supported Israel’s right to defend itself against Houthi aggression and have called for increased efforts to address the root causes of the conflict.
Strategic Ramifications
Operation Outstretched Arm serves as a stark reminder of Israel’s ability to conduct long-range, precision airstrikes far from its borders. The operation also underscores the broader strategic implications of the Houthi-Iran alliance and the potential for regional conflicts to escalate and spill over into neighboring areas.
In conclusion, Operation Outstretched Arm represents a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Houthi rebels. By targeting the critical infrastructure at Hudaydah, Israel has dealt a substantial blow to the Houthi’s logistical capabilities and sent a clear message to its adversaries. However, the operation also raises important questions about the humanitarian impact and the potential for further escalation in an already volatile region.
As the situation continues to develop, it is crucial for the international community to engage in efforts to de-escalate the conflict and address the underlying issues driving the violence. Only through comprehensive and sustained diplomatic efforts can lasting peace and stability be achieved in Yemen and the broader Middle East.
APPENDIX 1 – Strategic Document: Yemen’s Drone and Missile Strategy Against Israel
This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of Yemen’s capabilities to use drones and missiles to saturate Israel’s defenses and target urban areas.
Given the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, it’s essential to understand the strategic capabilities that Yemen could employ against Israel. This document examines Yemen’s drone and missile technology, evaluates Israel’s defense systems, and proposes a detailed saturation strategy.
Yemen’s Long-Range Drone Capabilities
Types of Long-Range Drones:
| Drone Model | Type | Wingspan (m) | Range (km) | Payload (kg) | Speed (km/h) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samad-3 | Strike | 4.5 | 1,500-1,800 | 50 | 250 | Used in Tel Aviv attack, possible upgrades. |
| Samad-4 | Advanced Strike | 5 | 2,000+ | 50 | – | Enhanced range and payload capacity. |
| Wa’aed | Loitering Munition | 2.5 | 1,600+ | 50 | 185 | Similar to Iran’s Shahed-136. |
Missiles in Yemen’s Arsenal
Types of Long-Range Missiles:
| Missile Model | Range (km) | Payload (kg) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soumar | 2,500 | 410 | Long-range cruise missile, based on Russian Kh-55. |
Strategy to Saturate Israel’s Defenses
Overwhelming Iron Dome:
- Deploy simultaneous waves of drones, such as the Samad-3, to deplete the Iron Dome interceptors.
- Use loitering munitions like Wa’aed in significant numbers to create multiple simultaneous threats.
Penetrating David’s Sling and Arrow Systems:
- Launch Soumar missiles in conjunction with Samad-4 drones to target critical infrastructure and military installations.
- Use loitering munitions to maintain pressure and confusion.
Targeting Major Cities:
- Coordinate strikes on Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem using a combination of Soumar missiles and Samad-3 drones.
- Use long-range drones for real-time intelligence and adjustment of strike plans.
Tactical Execution
Phase 1: Initial Drone Wave:
- Deploy a wave of 50-100 Samad-3 and Samad-4 drones targeting radar installations, air defense systems, and military bases.
- Use loitering munitions to maintain continuous pressure on defenses.
Phase 2: Coordinated Missile Launch:
- Launch Soumar missiles (20-30 units) in a staggered manner to coincide with drone strikes, targeting urban centers and critical infrastructure.
Phase 3: Sustained Pressure:
- Follow up with additional waves of drones (Samad-3, Samad-4) to maintain saturation.
- Adapt to the effectiveness of initial strikes, redirecting subsequent waves as needed to exploit vulnerabilities.
Saturating Israel’s defenses from Yemen requires a strategic deployment of both drones and missiles. By leveraging a mix of long-range drones and missiles, it is possible to challenge and potentially overwhelm Israel’s multi-layered defense systems. Continuous adaptation and intelligence gathering are essential to maintaining pressure and exploiting vulnerabilities in Israel’s defenses.
APPENDIX 2 – Strategic Analysis of Yemen’s Potential Reactions to Israeli Airstrikes
The recent Israeli airstrikes on Houthi-controlled infrastructure in Hudaydah, Yemen, mark a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the Houthis and Israel. This report provides a detailed analysis of potential Houthi reactions, considering the strategic implications, military capabilities, and geopolitical dynamics. It aims to offer comprehensive insights for strategic decision-makers.
Context and Background
The Houthi-Iranian Alliance
The Houthis have long been supported by Iran, which has provided them with advanced weaponry, training, and strategic guidance. This support has enabled the Houthis to enhance their military capabilities significantly, posing a substantial threat to regional stability and international security.
Recent Developments
- Drone Attack on Tel Aviv: The Houthis successfully launched a modified Samad-3 drone, striking Tel Aviv from a distance of approximately 1,600 miles. This demonstrated their advanced capabilities and willingness to engage in direct conflict with Israel.
- Israeli Airstrikes on Hudaydah: In response, Israel conducted a series of precision airstrikes targeting critical infrastructure in Hudaydah, aiming to cripple Houthi logistical capabilities and send a deterrent message.
Potential Houthi Reactions
Scenario 1: Escalation of Hostilities
Increased Drone and Missile Attacks
- Drone Models: The Houthis are likely to deploy a range of drones in future attacks, including the Samad-3, Samad-4, Wa’aed, and Qasef-1/2K. The Samad-3, with an estimated range of 1,500-1,800 km, has already demonstrated its effectiveness. The Samad-4, with enhanced range and payload capacity, could pose an even greater threat.
- Missile Models: The Houthis possess various ballistic missiles, including the Burkan-2H, Zelzal-3, and Badr-1. The Burkan-2H, with a range of up to 1,400 km, could be used to target strategic sites within Israel. Additionally, the Qiam-1 missile, with its improved guidance systems, might also be employed.
- Potential Targets: Likely targets include Israeli military bases, critical infrastructure such as power plants and desalination facilities, and civilian population centers to maximize psychological impact.
Technical Data Summary:
| Drone Model | Type | Wingspan (m) | Range (km) | Payload (kg) | Speed (km/h) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samad-1 | Surveillance | 3.5 | 500 | – | – | Primarily for reconnaissance. |
| Samad-3 | Strike | 4.5 | 1,500-1,800 | 50 | 250 | Used in Tel Aviv attack, possible upgrades. |
| Samad-4 | Advanced Strike | 5 | 2,000+ | 50 | – | Enhanced range and payload capacity. |
| Qasef-1/2K | Kamikaze | – | 150-200 | 30 | – | Low-cost, extensively used against ships. |
| Wa’aed | Loitering Munition | 2.5 | 1,600+ | 50 | 185 | Similar to Iran’s Shahed-136. |
| Khatif-1/2 | Tele-Guided Strike | – | Dozens | 10 | – | Features x-shaped tail in Khatif-2. |
| Mersad-1/2 | Surveillance | 4.9 | 93 | – | 170 | Based on RQ-21 Blackjack, reverse-engineered. |
| Raqeep | Miniature Surveillance | 1.37 | 15 | – | 30 | Reverse-engineered RQ-11 Raven, small UAV. |
Maritime Attacks
- Methods: The Houthis could use explosive-laden boats, anti-ship missiles such as the Noor (an Iranian variant of the Chinese C-802), and naval mines to target Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
- Impact: Successful maritime attacks could disrupt international shipping routes, causing significant economic repercussions and increasing insurance costs for maritime traffic.
Proxy Warfare
- Hezbollah Coordination: Enhanced coordination with Hezbollah could lead to simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts, stretching Israeli defenses and complicating response efforts.
- Support to Other Militants: Increased support to Palestinian militant groups in Gaza and Syria could open additional fronts, creating a multi-front conflict scenario for Israel.
Scenario 2: Strategic Realignment and Diplomacy
Calls for International Intervention
- United Nations: Yemen and the Houthis could push for an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to condemn Israel’s actions, framing the strikes as violations of international law and human rights.
- Arab League: Rallying the Arab League to issue a unified condemnation of Israel, potentially leading to increased diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions.
- Humanitarian Appeals: Leveraging the humanitarian impact of the strikes to gain support from international NGOs and humanitarian agencies, highlighting the plight of Yemeni civilians.
Negotiations and Ceasefire Proposals
- Backchannel Negotiations: Engaging in secret negotiations through neutral intermediaries to negotiate a ceasefire, possibly offering to halt drone and missile attacks in exchange for Israel ceasing airstrikes.
- Formal Ceasefire Agreement: Proposing a formal ceasefire agreement that includes terms for international monitoring and verification, potentially involving third-party peacekeepers.
Scenario 3: Strengthening Defensive Capabilities
Enhancing Air Defense Systems
- Acquisition of Advanced Systems: The Houthis could seek to acquire more sophisticated air defense systems from Iran, such as the Bavar-373 or the Khordad-15, to protect critical infrastructure.
- Improving Radar and Detection Capabilities: Enhancing radar and early warning systems, possibly through Iranian assistance, to better detect and respond to Israeli airstrikes.
Fortifying Key Installations
- Hardened Shelters and Bunkers: Constructing reinforced shelters and bunkers to protect key assets from airstrikes, using lessons learned from Iranian and Hezbollah fortification strategies.
- Dispersal of Assets: Dispersing critical assets across multiple locations to reduce their vulnerability to concentrated airstrikes, complicating Israeli targeting efforts.
Scenario 4: Civilian Mobilization and Propaganda
Rallying Domestic Support
- Propaganda Campaigns: Launching extensive propaganda campaigns to portray the airstrikes as attacks on Yemeni sovereignty and resilience, using media and social networks to boost nationalistic fervor.
- Civilian Militias: Encouraging the formation of civilian militias to support the Houthi military effort, potentially increasing the pool of combatants and complicating Israeli targeting.
Quantitative Analysis and Military Capabilities
Houthi Drone Capabilities
- Samad-1: Wingspan: 3.5 m; Range: 500 km; Payload: –; Speed: –; Primarily for reconnaissance.
- Samad-3: Wingspan: 4.5 m; Range: 1,500-1,800 km; Payload: 50 kg; Speed: 250 km/h; Used in Tel Aviv attack, possible upgrades.
- Samad-4: Wingspan: 5 m; Range: 2,000+ km; Payload: 50 kg; Speed: –; Enhanced range and payload capacity.
- Qasef-1/2K: Range: 150-200 km; Payload: 30 kg; Speed: –; Low-cost, extensively used against ships.
- Wa’aed: Wingspan: 2.5 m; Range: 1,600+ km; Payload: 50 kg; Speed: 185 km/h; Similar to Iran’s Shahed-136.
- Khatif-1/2: Range: Dozens of km; Payload: 10 kg; Speed: –; Features x-shaped tail in Khatif-2.
- Mersad-1/2: Wingspan: 4.9 m; Range: 93 km; Payload: –; Speed: 170 km/h; Based on RQ-21 Blackjack, reverse-engineered.
- Raqeep: Wingspan: 1.37 m; Range: 15 km; Payload: –; Speed: 30 km/h; Reverse-engineered RQ-11 Raven, small UAV.
Houthi Missile Capabilities
- Burkan-2H: Range: 1,400 km; Warhead: 500 kg
- Zelzal-3: Range: 200 km; Warhead: 600 kg
- Badr-1: Range: 150 km; Warhead: 300 kg
- Qiam-1: Range: 800 km; Warhead: 750 kg
Air Defense Systems
- Bavar-373: Range: 200 km; Altitude: 27 km
- Khordad-15: Range: 120 km; Altitude: 27 km
Strategic Recommendations
- Enhanced Intelligence and Surveillance: Increased intelligence and surveillance efforts to monitor Houthi activities and preemptively identify potential threats.
- Strengthening Defensive Alliances: Bolstering defensive alliances with regional partners and international allies to ensure coordinated responses to Houthi threats.
- Diplomatic Engagement: Engaging in proactive diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict and seek a negotiated resolution, leveraging international support to pressure the Houthis and Iran.
- Humanitarian Assistance: Providing humanitarian assistance to mitigate the impact of the conflict on Yemeni civilians and counteract Houthi propaganda efforts.
The situation in Yemen and the broader Middle East remains highly complex and fluid. The Houthis’ reaction to the recent Israeli airstrikes will be shaped by a combination of military capabilities, strategic objectives, and geopolitical dynamics. By considering the scenarios outlined in this report, strategic decision-makers can better anticipate potential developments and formulate effective responses to maintain regional stability and security.
