The ongoing war in Ukraine has taken on increasingly complex dimensions as external actors deepen their involvement in the conflict. Among the most concerning of these is North Korea, which has gone beyond merely supplying Russia with munitions to deploying military engineers and personnel to assist Russian forces in Ukraine. The Guardian reported that these engineers are now aiding Russia in targeting Ukraine with the ballistic missiles North Korea has provided. This marks a new phase in the war and highlights the evolving geopolitical dynamics that could have long-lasting consequences.
Reports from senior officials in Kyiv and Seoul confirm that dozens of North Korean military engineers are now behind Russian lines, working in teams that support launcher systems for KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles, also known as Hwasong-11s. These missile systems were supplied to Russia earlier this year, though roughly half of them were found to be defective, according to an analysis conducted by Ukrainian state prosecutors.
In addition to these technical contributions, there is evidence to suggest that North Korean officers have been deployed on the ground in Ukraine, fighting alongside Russian troops. South Korea’s Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun stated that it was “highly likely” North Korean officers had been deployed, and there were reports of several being killed in an attack on a Russian base in the Donetsk region. Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, confirmed these reports, stating that some North Koreans had indeed been killed in Ukraine. This collaboration marks an alarming development, as it is one of the first instances of a foreign government officially sending uniformed troops to support Russia’s war efforts.
North Korea’s Motivations
North Korea’s involvement is not merely a show of solidarity with its long-time ally, Russia, but part of a broader strategic calculus. By sending military personnel and equipment, North Korea is able to test its weaponry under real-world combat conditions. This provides invaluable feedback on the performance of its military hardware and offers North Korean troops live combat experience, which could be critical for the regime’s future military plans.
For Pyongyang, this conflict represents an opportunity to improve its military capability and readiness without engaging in direct hostilities of its own. Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, emphasized the importance of this dynamic. “It’s crucial for North Korea to gain real-world combat experience. This might even be a driving factor behind sending North Korean soldiers – to provide them with diverse experiences and wartime training.”
Aside from gaining combat experience, North Korea is also benefitting economically from this relationship. It is believed to be supplying Russia with around three million artillery shells per year, according to Western intelligence. While many of these munitions are reportedly faulty, the sheer volume of shells has enabled Russia to continue making incremental gains on the battlefield. Most recently, these North Korean-supplied shells played a role in Russia’s capture of Vuhledar, a key city in eastern Ukraine.
The Strategic Implications for Ukraine
The influx of North Korean munitions and personnel is altering the dynamics of the war in Ukraine. Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate, warned in September that North Korea’s military supplies were shifting the balance in Russia’s favor. “Our biggest problem from all these allies of Russia is North Korea. Because with the volume of military products that they supply, they actually affect the intensity of the fighting.”
Ukraine has attempted to counteract this by targeting Russian facilities storing North Korean arms. On October 11, the Ukrainian military claimed to have destroyed a depot in Karachev, Russia, where North Korean ammunition was being stored. The strike on the warehouse, located in Russia’s Bryansk region, was seen as a significant blow to Russia’s war effort, though the long-term impact remains uncertain.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces have managed to hold their ground despite the influx of North Korean arms. According to senior U.S. military officials, Ukraine is “mounting a strong defense” in key regions such as Kursk and Donetsk. Although Russia has made limited advances in these areas, the gains have slowed considerably in recent months, and there have been no significant territorial changes. However, Ukrainian officials remain concerned that the continued support from North Korea could tip the scales in Russia’s favor over time.
The Putin-Kim Arms Deal: A Dangerous Escalation
The increasing involvement of North Korea in Ukraine follows a secret arms deal struck between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This deal, forged during a summit earlier this year, has led to a series of exchanges between the two nations, including the supply of munitions and military engineers to support Russia’s war effort. Additionally, there are reports that North Korea has agreed to send construction and engineering forces to Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine to assist with rebuilding efforts. The details of the agreement remain largely secret, but it is clear that this collaboration has deepened in recent months.
The Putin-Kim arms deal has alarmed Western nations, which see it as a sign of Russia’s desperation as it struggles to maintain its war effort against Ukraine’s resilient defense. The alliance between Russia and North Korea also complicates efforts by the West to diplomatically isolate both countries. By working together, Russia and North Korea are demonstrating their willingness to defy international norms and sanctions, potentially encouraging other rogue states to follow suit.
Western Reactions and Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
The United States and its NATO allies have taken note of North Korea’s deepening involvement in Ukraine and are adjusting their strategies accordingly. In response to the growing military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow, Western nations have ramped up their support for Ukraine, providing advanced weaponry and intelligence to help counter the threat posed by North Korean munitions.
Ukraine, for its part, is taking a “defense in depth” approach, trading territory for time as it prepares for a new offensive in 2025. The goal is to maintain a defensive posture in the short term while building up resources for a more decisive push against Russian forces in the near future. Senior U.S. defense officials believe that Ukraine can maintain its current positions in key areas like Kursk for several more months, giving it time to regroup and plan its next move.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to target North Korean assets within Russia. In addition to the strike on the Karachev ammunition depot, Ukrainian defense forces have also attacked a Shahed drone storage facility in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai region. The destruction of these facilities is seen as critical to weakening Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations, though it is unlikely to completely eliminate the threat posed by North Korean-supplied arms.
The Broader Geopolitical Context
North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war is not happening in a vacuum. It reflects broader geopolitical shifts as authoritarian regimes form alliances in defiance of the international order. Russia’s reliance on North Korea for military support is indicative of its increasing isolation from the West, while North Korea’s willingness to engage in the conflict underscores its desire to assert itself on the global stage.
The alliance between Russia and North Korea also has implications for other regions, particularly East Asia. South Korea and Japan have expressed concern that North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine could embolden the regime to take more aggressive actions closer to home, particularly in relation to its nuclear weapons program. There are fears that North Korea’s newfound combat experience could translate into more sophisticated military operations in the Korean Peninsula, raising the risk of conflict in the region.
North Korea’s Military Engineering Expertise in Action
One of the most significant contributions North Korea has made to the Russian war effort in Ukraine is the deployment of its military engineers. These experts, with extensive experience in missile technology and artillery systems, are working alongside Russian forces to optimize the use of North Korean-made KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles. While much attention has been paid to the sheer volume of munitions supplied by Pyongyang, the expertise of these engineers represents a more nuanced and strategic asset to the Kremlin’s war campaign.
According to Ukrainian military sources, North Korean engineers have been instrumental in recalibrating missile systems that were originally designed for the Korean Peninsula’s specific topography. The flat plains and urban environments of eastern Ukraine pose different challenges for these systems. North Korean engineers have reportedly modified the trajectory, payload capacity, and targeting mechanisms of the KN-23 missiles to make them more effective in the Ukrainian theater of war. This has allowed Russia to extend the operational range and destructive power of these missiles, despite initial reports that many were defective upon delivery.
Moreover, North Korean engineers have been involved in the integration of Russian and North Korean missile technology. Recent intelligence reports suggest that the Russians have adapted their Iskander missile systems to work in conjunction with North Korean KN-23 launchers, creating a hybrid system that blends Russian guidance technology with North Korean delivery systems. This collaborative effort between North Korean and Russian military scientists points to a deepening military partnership that goes beyond simple arms transactions. The synergy between the two countries’ technological capabilities could have significant implications for future conflicts, particularly if Russia and North Korea continue to exchange military innovations.
North Korean Troop Involvement: Beyond Engineers
While the presence of North Korean engineers has been widely reported, there is growing evidence that North Korean combat troops may also be involved in frontline operations in Ukraine. Recent leaks from South Korean intelligence agencies suggest that several North Korean special forces units have been deployed to assist Russian troops in high-intensity combat zones, particularly around Donetsk and Luhansk. These elite units, trained in guerrilla warfare and unconventional tactics, are thought to be providing critical support in areas where Russian forces have struggled to make significant headway.
The deployment of North Korean special forces represents a bold move by Pyongyang, as it risks drawing international condemnation and possible retaliatory measures from Western nations. However, for Kim Jong-un, the potential benefits appear to outweigh the risks. North Korean forces are gaining invaluable combat experience in Ukraine, and their involvement is likely to enhance their effectiveness in future conflicts, both in the Korean Peninsula and beyond. According to military analysts, the experience North Korean troops are gaining in urban warfare, missile deployment, and counterinsurgency operations in Ukraine will significantly boost their tactical and operational capabilities.
Furthermore, the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine raises the possibility of a broader internationalization of the conflict. While foreign mercenaries have fought for both sides in Ukraine, the official deployment of state-sponsored troops by a foreign government marks a significant escalation. This development could set a dangerous precedent, encouraging other authoritarian regimes to send their own forces to support Russia or to intervene in conflicts elsewhere in the world.
Economic Transactions Underpinning the Military Alliance
Behind the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea lies a complex web of economic transactions and resource exchanges. North Korea, heavily sanctioned and isolated from the global economy, has long relied on illicit trade and arms sales to sustain its regime. The war in Ukraine has provided Pyongyang with a new revenue stream, as Russia has become one of its largest buyers of military hardware. While the specifics of the financial arrangements between Moscow and Pyongyang remain unclear, it is widely believed that Russia has compensated North Korea with oil, grain, and other critical resources that are in short supply in the isolated country.
According to reports from South Korean intelligence, North Korea has already received several shipments of Russian oil, which has been crucial in alleviating its ongoing energy crisis. In addition to oil, North Korea is reportedly receiving grain and other agricultural products from Russia, helping to mitigate the severe food shortages that have plagued the country in recent years. This exchange of resources has been pivotal in propping up the North Korean economy, which has been devastated by international sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the same time, the arms trade between Russia and North Korea has provided a lifeline to the Russian war effort. With its own military production capacity stretched to the limit, Russia has turned to North Korea for artillery shells, rockets, and small arms to keep its war machine running. Western intelligence estimates that North Korea has supplied Russia with as many as three million artillery shells since the start of the war, helping to sustain the intense shelling campaigns that have characterized much of the fighting in eastern Ukraine.
This mutually beneficial relationship has created a new axis of economic and military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, one that could reshape regional and global dynamics in the years to come. The strengthening of ties between these two pariah states could complicate efforts by the international community to isolate and contain their respective regimes, as they find new ways to circumvent sanctions and continue their military expansion.
Implications for the Korean Peninsula
The deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is also having ripple effects in East Asia, particularly on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea and Japan, both close U.S. allies, are increasingly concerned that North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war could embolden Pyongyang to take more aggressive actions closer to home. The enhanced combat experience North Korean troops are gaining in Ukraine, combined with the influx of Russian military technology, could make the North Korean military a more formidable adversary in the event of a future conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
In response to these developments, South Korea has been ramping up its own military preparedness. In October 2024, South Korea announced the deployment of additional THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defense systems in response to the growing threat posed by North Korea’s expanding ballistic missile arsenal. The deployment of these advanced missile defense systems is seen as a direct response to North Korea’s increasing military cooperation with Russia and its improved missile capabilities.
Japan, too, has taken note of the growing North Korean threat. In a historic move, the Japanese government announced in early 2024 that it would significantly increase its defense budget, breaking with decades of post-World War II pacifism. This shift in policy is driven by the perceived threat from North Korea, as well as growing concerns over China’s military expansion in the region. Japan’s decision to bolster its military capabilities is a clear indication of the shifting security landscape in East Asia, where North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine is seen as part of a broader pattern of aggression by authoritarian regimes.
The Role of Western Intelligence
Western intelligence agencies have played a crucial role in tracking North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war and providing critical information to Ukraine’s military planners. The United States, in particular, has been closely monitoring the flow of arms and personnel from North Korea to Russia. Satellite imagery, intercepted communications, and human intelligence sources have all been used to track the movement of North Korean engineers and troops to the front lines in Ukraine.
In September 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense declassified a series of satellite images showing North Korean cargo ships unloading artillery shells and other munitions at Russian ports. These images provided the first concrete evidence of the scale of the arms trade between the two countries, and they have been used to bolster international calls for stricter enforcement of sanctions against both Russia and North Korea.
In addition to tracking arms shipments, Western intelligence agencies have been working to disrupt the flow of North Korean military personnel to Ukraine. According to a report from the CIA, several North Korean officers who were scheduled to be deployed to Ukraine were detained during transit by U.S. and allied intelligence services. These operations have helped slow the deployment of additional North Korean personnel to the conflict, though they have not been able to stop it entirely.
Western intelligence agencies have also been working closely with their Ukrainian counterparts to identify and target Russian facilities storing North Korean arms. The strike on the Karachev ammunition depot in October 2024, which destroyed a significant stockpile of North Korean-supplied artillery shells, was carried out with the assistance of U.S. and British intelligence. These joint operations have been critical in reducing the effectiveness of North Korean arms in the conflict, though the sheer volume of munitions supplied by Pyongyang means that the threat remains significant.
North Korea’s Increasing Diplomatic Isolation
As North Korea becomes more deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict, its diplomatic isolation from the international community is intensifying. While North Korea has long been a pariah state, its decision to openly support Russia’s war in Ukraine has further alienated it from potential allies and neutral countries. In 2024, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution condemning North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine and calling for additional sanctions against the regime. The resolution, which was co-sponsored by the United States, the European Union, and several Asian nations, passed with overwhelming support, though it was opposed by Russia and China.
China’s position on North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine remains somewhat ambiguous. While Beijing has traditionally been North Korea’s closest ally and economic lifeline, it has shown signs of discomfort with Pyongyang’s growing alignment with Moscow. China has refrained from openly criticizing North Korea, but it has also avoided providing any direct support for North Korea’s military efforts in Ukraine. This delicate balancing act reflects China’s broader strategic interests in maintaining stability in East Asia while avoiding direct confrontation with the West.
At the same time, North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine has strained its relationships with other authoritarian regimes, particularly in the Middle East. Iran, which has provided limited military support to Russia in Ukraine, has reportedly expressed concerns about North Korea’s growing role in the conflict. Tehran is worried that North Korea’s military actions could draw unwanted attention from Western powers, potentially leading to increased sanctions and diplomatic pressure on other countries that have supported Russia.
North Korea’s Role in Cyber Warfare and Intelligence Sharing with Russia
A crucial yet often overlooked aspect of North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war is its expertise in cyber warfare. For years, North Korean hackers have been active in cyberattacks worldwide, conducting operations aimed at disrupting financial systems, stealing classified information, and disabling critical infrastructure. These cyber operations are carried out by North Korea’s notorious cyber unit, known as the “Lazarus Group,” which has been implicated in high-profile attacks such as the 2014 Sony Pictures hack and the WannaCry ransomware attack in 2017.
As part of its deepening military collaboration with Russia, North Korea is reportedly providing cyber warfare support to assist Russian military operations in Ukraine. Recent intelligence leaks from Western cybersecurity agencies suggest that North Korean hackers have been working closely with Russian intelligence services to conduct cyberattacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. These attacks have targeted Ukraine’s energy grid, transportation networks, and military command systems, aiming to disrupt Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense operations.
In addition to direct cyberattacks, North Korea is sharing its expertise in hacking cryptocurrency exchanges and financial institutions with Russia. North Korean hackers have been highly successful in stealing cryptocurrencies to fund the regime’s military programs, and they are now leveraging this expertise to help Russia evade Western financial sanctions. In one notable operation in late 2023, North Korean hackers reportedly helped Russian state-backed groups to infiltrate several European cryptocurrency exchanges, stealing over $500 million in digital assets. This money is believed to have been funneled back into Russia’s war effort, providing a crucial financial lifeline for the Kremlin as it grapples with the economic impacts of the conflict.
The cyber collaboration between North Korea and Russia represents a significant escalation in the hybrid warfare tactics being used against Ukraine. While missile strikes and artillery bombardments dominate the physical battlefield, the cyber domain has become an increasingly critical front in the war, where North Korea’s skills are playing a pivotal role in weakening Ukraine’s defenses and its economy.
North Korean Arms Smuggling and Black Market Operations
Beyond the official arms deals between North Korea and Russia, there is growing evidence that Pyongyang has been involved in illicit arms smuggling operations to supply Russia with additional weaponry. These clandestine operations are carried out through complex networks of black market arms dealers, often operating through intermediaries in countries like Syria, Iran, and Venezuela.
In September 2024, a joint investigation by Western intelligence agencies uncovered a North Korean arms smuggling ring that was transporting weapons to Russia via a network of front companies and cargo ships registered in third countries. The operation involved the shipment of small arms, light artillery, and anti-tank missiles, which were concealed in shipments of legitimate goods to avoid detection. The weapons were then offloaded in Russian ports and distributed to Russian military units fighting in Ukraine.
These black market arms deals have allowed North Korea to circumvent international sanctions and sell its outdated but still effective military hardware to Russia at inflated prices. The profits from these deals are then funneled back into North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, further exacerbating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The smuggling operations also provide North Korea with a means to test and refine its covert logistics capabilities, which could be used in future conflicts to supply its own forces or its allies without attracting international scrutiny.
The Geopolitical Fallout: Strained Alliances and Diplomatic Backlash
North Korea’s increasingly overt support for Russia has not only drawn the ire of Western nations but has also created tension within its traditional alliance network. While Russia has welcomed North Korea’s assistance, other countries that have historically supported Pyongyang are expressing concern over its actions in Ukraine, particularly as they risk further isolating North Korea on the global stage.
China, North Korea’s most important ally and economic partner, has grown increasingly uncomfortable with Pyongyang’s deepening involvement in the Ukraine war. China has sought to maintain a position of relative neutrality in the conflict, balancing its strategic partnership with Russia against its economic ties with the West. However, North Korea’s direct military and cyber support for Russia is complicating Beijing’s efforts to navigate this delicate diplomatic balancing act. According to sources within the Chinese government, there are growing concerns that North Korea’s actions could provoke a more aggressive response from the West, potentially leading to harsher sanctions on North Korea that could destabilize the region.
China’s discomfort is compounded by the fact that North Korea’s actions could also undermine Beijing’s broader strategic goals. China has long sought to position itself as a mediator in international conflicts, particularly in East Asia, and North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine threatens to derail these efforts by drawing China into a conflict that it would prefer to avoid. Despite their close historical ties, China and North Korea are increasingly at odds over the latter’s decision to openly support Russia’s war effort.
In the Middle East, North Korea’s actions are also causing friction with Iran, another key player in the arms supply chain to Russia. While Iran has provided drones and missiles to Russia, it has maintained a cautious approach, wary of attracting too much international attention. Iran views North Korea’s increasingly aggressive posture as potentially harmful to its own position, particularly if it leads to new rounds of sanctions targeting both Pyongyang and Tehran. There are reports that Iranian officials have privately expressed frustration with North Korea’s disregard for the broader geopolitical implications of its actions, fearing that it could undermine Iran’s own carefully calibrated involvement in the conflict.
North Korea’s Domestic Response and Propaganda Machine
Back in North Korea, the regime is using its involvement in the Ukraine war as a propaganda tool to bolster domestic support for Kim Jong-un’s leadership. State-controlled media outlets have been celebrating North Korea’s contributions to Russia’s war effort, portraying it as a symbol of the regime’s growing military prowess and international influence. The narrative being pushed by North Korean propaganda is one of solidarity with Russia against Western imperialism, a theme that resonates deeply with the country’s isolated and heavily indoctrinated population.
In recent months, North Korean media has run a series of reports highlighting the successes of its military engineers and special forces in Ukraine, often exaggerating their role in key battles. These reports have been accompanied by images and videos of North Korean soldiers alongside Russian troops, reinforcing the idea that North Korea is playing a critical role in the fight against what the regime calls “Western aggression.” The goal of this propaganda campaign is to strengthen Kim Jong-un’s domestic standing by framing North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine as a victory for the regime’s self-reliance policy, known as Juche.
However, beneath the surface, there are signs that North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war is creating domestic strains. The financial costs of supporting Russia, combined with the ongoing economic challenges caused by international sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic, are putting pressure on North Korea’s already fragile economy. While the regime has managed to maintain tight control over the flow of information, there are growing reports of food shortages and inflation in key urban areas. These economic challenges could undermine the regime’s efforts to use its involvement in Ukraine as a propaganda victory and may lead to increased discontent among the population.
Long-Term Implications for Global Arms Control
North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war has far-reaching implications for global arms control efforts. The large-scale transfer of North Korean weapons to Russia has highlighted the challenges of enforcing international arms embargoes and the limitations of current non-proliferation frameworks. Despite being subject to some of the most stringent arms sanctions in the world, North Korea has continued to produce and export weapons, often using clandestine methods to evade detection.
The Ukraine war has exposed weaknesses in the global arms control regime, particularly in its ability to monitor and prevent the transfer of conventional weapons. As North Korea and other authoritarian regimes find new ways to circumvent sanctions and supply arms to conflict zones, there is a growing need for more robust enforcement mechanisms and international cooperation. Western nations, led by the United States, have begun to push for reforms to the United Nations’ arms embargo system, calling for stricter oversight and more aggressive enforcement of sanctions. These efforts are likely to face resistance from countries like China and Russia, which have historically opposed measures that would increase international scrutiny of their own arms transfers.
At the same time, North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine is raising concerns about the proliferation of missile technology. The transfer of North Korean missile systems to Russia could lead to the dissemination of advanced missile technologies to other conflict zones, further destabilizing global security. There are already indications that North Korea is using the Ukraine war as an opportunity to market its missile systems to other authoritarian regimes, touting their performance in real-world combat conditions. This could lead to a new wave of missile proliferation, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, where demand for advanced weaponry is high.
The Future of North Korea-Russia Military Cooperation
As the Ukraine war continues, the military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is likely to deepen, creating a more permanent strategic alliance between the two pariah states. This partnership, initially forged out of necessity due to Russia’s growing isolation and North Korea’s desire for economic and military benefits, has the potential to evolve into a long-term military alliance with broader implications for global security.
Western intelligence analysts believe that North Korea is seeking to use its involvement in Ukraine as a stepping stone to secure more advanced Russian military technology, particularly in the areas of missile defense and electronic warfare. In exchange for its support in Ukraine, North Korea is reportedly negotiating access to Russian S-400 missile defense systems and other cutting-edge military technologies that could significantly enhance its defensive capabilities. If these negotiations succeed, it could mark a significant shift in the balance of power in East Asia, giving North Korea the ability to better defend itself against potential U.S. and South Korean military interventions.
The deepening military ties between North Korea and Russia also raise the prospect of future joint military exercises and weapons development programs. There are unconfirmed reports that North Korean and Russian military officials have been discussing the possibility of conducting joint missile tests in the Arctic, where Russia has been expanding its military presence in recent years. These tests would allow both countries to demonstrate their growing missile capabilities and send a clear message to their adversaries in the West.
