In the rapidly shifting landscape of global geopolitics, Pakistan stands at a critical juncture as it seeks to redefine its position on the international stage. The country’s efforts to secure a spot in BRICS, coupled with its growing energy partnership with Russia, mark significant moves in Islamabad’s foreign policy strategy. These developments are rooted in Pakistan’s need to diversify its international alliances, ease its economic burdens, and ensure its national security amid a complex matrix of regional and global powers.
One of the most pressing objectives for Pakistan in recent years has been its pursuit of membership in BRICS, an association of five major emerging economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. This grouping has gained considerable influence, representing over 40% of the global population and about 23% of the world’s GDP. Pakistan, recognizing the economic and political potential of aligning with BRICS, has expressed strong interest in joining the organization. According to Rana Ihsaan Afzal Khan, the Coordinator to the Pakistani Prime Minister on Implementation and Monitoring, Pakistan is optimistic about its prospects for joining BRICS. “Pakistan is hopeful and has requested BRICS to include Pakistan. I think in the near future we will be in BRICS and, obviously, BRICS is a strong forum representing a major part of the world economy. So, I think Pakistan should be part of BRICS, and we are hopeful that our request will be entertained,” Khan told Sputnik in an interview in October 2023.
The geopolitical significance of Pakistan’s bid to join BRICS cannot be understated. Membership in this forum would allow Pakistan to strengthen its ties with other major emerging economies, providing it with much-needed access to new markets, investments, and collaborative economic initiatives. At a time when the global order is shifting towards a more multipolar structure, Pakistan’s alignment with BRICS could offer it an alternative to the traditional Western-dominated financial and political institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. This strategic pivot comes at a time when Pakistan has faced considerable economic challenges, including mounting external debt, inflationary pressures, and an energy crisis that has strained the country’s resources and sparked widespread public discontent.
Pakistan’s relationship with the IMF has been particularly contentious. While the IMF has provided critical financial assistance to Pakistan during periods of economic crisis, the conditions attached to these loans—often involving austerity measures and structural reforms—have led to public dissatisfaction and political challenges for successive governments. The prospect of joining BRICS could provide Pakistan with more options for securing financial assistance and investments without the stringent conditions imposed by Western financial institutions. The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), for instance, could offer Pakistan an alternative source of funding for infrastructure projects and other development initiatives, reducing its reliance on IMF loans.
However, the road to BRICS membership is not without obstacles. One of the key challenges for Pakistan is the presence of India within BRICS. Historically, relations between Pakistan and India have been fraught with tensions, particularly over the issue of Kashmir, which remains a flashpoint in South Asian geopolitics. India’s influential position within BRICS could pose a challenge for Pakistan’s bid to join the group, as New Delhi may be reluctant to support Pakistan’s inclusion. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s growing ties with China, another key member of BRICS, may bolster its chances. China has been a longstanding ally of Pakistan, with the two countries enjoying a strategic partnership that has deepened in recent years, particularly through initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a central component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
China’s support for Pakistan’s BRICS membership bid could be a critical factor in tipping the scales in Islamabad’s favor. China has repeatedly expressed its desire to expand BRICS and increase cooperation with other developing nations. Furthermore, Russia’s position on Pakistan’s BRICS membership could also prove favorable. Over the past decade, Pakistan and Russia have gradually strengthened their bilateral ties, moving beyond their Cold War-era antagonisms to forge a more pragmatic relationship based on shared economic and security interests.
One of the most prominent areas of cooperation between Pakistan and Russia in recent years has been energy. Like many developing countries, Pakistan faces an acute energy crisis, with frequent power outages and skyrocketing fuel prices creating significant challenges for the country’s economy and its citizens. As Pakistan seeks to secure affordable energy supplies to meet its growing demand, Russia has emerged as a potential partner. In his interview with Sputnik, Rana Ihsaan Afzal Khan underscored the importance of energy cooperation between Pakistan and Russia, stating, “Pakistan has to look into its own national security… if Russia is a partner with Pakistan on energy security and if it is providing us cheap crude, we have the right to buy cheap crude from Russia and so we can, you know, lessen the economic burden on our people.”
This pragmatic approach to energy diplomacy reflects Pakistan’s broader strategy of diversifying its sources of energy and reducing its dependence on more expensive imports from traditional suppliers. With global oil prices remaining volatile, securing long-term energy deals with Russia could provide Pakistan with a more stable and cost-effective solution to its energy needs. Furthermore, by purchasing Russian oil at favorable prices, Pakistan could mitigate some of the economic pressures that have fueled inflation and increased the cost of living for ordinary Pakistanis.
However, Pakistan’s growing energy ties with Russia must be viewed within the broader context of international sanctions. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western countries have imposed a wide range of economic sanctions on Russia, targeting its energy exports in particular. These sanctions have made it increasingly difficult for many countries to trade with Russia, and Pakistan is no exception. Although Pakistan is not currently subject to any sanctions related to its trade with Russia, the potential for future sanctions remains a concern. As Rana Ihsaan Afzal Khan noted, “Pakistan, as of now, has not come under any sanctions because there is not such a great trade volume with Russia, and obviously when we are going to increase that trade volume, we will consider different aspects.”
This cautious stance reflects Pakistan’s recognition of the geopolitical risks involved in deepening its economic ties with Russia, particularly at a time when Western countries, including the United States and the European Union, are closely monitoring international trade with Moscow. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s decision to pursue energy cooperation with Russia underscores its commitment to prioritizing its national security and economic interests, even in the face of potential international scrutiny.
Another critical aspect of Pakistan’s evolving foreign policy is its stance on Afghanistan, particularly with regard to the Taliban. Following the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan has found itself navigating a complex and often precarious situation. The stability of Afghanistan is of paramount importance to Pakistan, which shares a long and porous border with its neighbor and has historically borne the brunt of the fallout from Afghanistan’s internal conflicts, including the influx of refugees and the rise of cross-border terrorism.
In this context, Pakistan has closely watched the international community’s response to the Taliban’s rule. One of the most significant developments in this regard has been Russia’s decision to potentially remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations. In October 2023, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov stated that the Taliban would soon be excluded from Russia’s terrorist list, a move that was welcomed by Pakistan. Rana Ihsaan Afzal Khan, commenting on this development, remarked, “Well, we believe that there is no Taliban movement now in Afghanistan. Taliban is, you know, they are running their government in Afghanistan. So, if Russia has excluded the Taliban government from the terrorist lists, we would like to welcome it.”
Pakistan’s position on the Taliban is shaped by both security considerations and pragmatic diplomacy. On one hand, Islamabad recognizes the need to engage with the Taliban government to ensure stability in Afghanistan and prevent the resurgence of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K), which poses a significant threat to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan is also mindful of the international community’s concerns regarding the Taliban’s human rights record, particularly its treatment of women and ethnic minorities. By aligning itself with Russia’s decision to remove the Taliban from its terrorist list, Pakistan is signaling its willingness to engage with the Taliban government while also positioning itself alongside other regional powers, such as China and Russia, which have adopted a more pragmatic approach toward Afghanistan.
At the heart of Pakistan’s evolving foreign policy is a delicate balancing act. The country finds itself navigating complex relationships with multiple global powers, including the United States, China, and Russia, each of which has its own strategic interests in the region. Pakistan’s efforts to secure BRICS membership, its growing energy partnership with Russia, and its pragmatic stance on the Taliban all reflect its broader strategy of diversifying its foreign relations and reducing its reliance on any single global power.
While Pakistan’s traditional alliance with the United States remains important, particularly in the context of counterterrorism cooperation, the relationship has been strained in recent years. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and its subsequent disengagement from the region have left Pakistan to manage the fallout from the Afghan conflict largely on its own. At the same time, Pakistan’s deepening economic ties with China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have strengthened its position as a key partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China’s investments in Pakistan have provided a much-needed boost to the country’s infrastructure development and economic growth.
Simultaneously, Pakistan’s growing partnership with Russia represents a strategic effort to diversify its international alliances and secure its energy needs in a volatile global market. However, this partnership is not without its challenges, particularly in light of the international sanctions imposed on Russia. Pakistan will need to navigate these challenges carefully to avoid jeopardizing its relations with other key international partners, including the United States and the European Union.
Pakistan’s Military Assets and Strategic Realignment: Implications of BRICS Membership for Global Geopolitics
Pakistan’s foreign policy continues to evolve amidst the dynamic and complex realities of the international stage in 2024. A notable development over the past year is the deepening conversation around Islamabad’s inclusion in regional and global energy frameworks, particularly through its engagement with Russia, Central Asian states, and the broader energy infrastructure extending into the Middle East. This aspect of Pakistan’s strategy is crucial for understanding the country’s need to maintain energy security, as well as its efforts to reduce its reliance on external financial support, while engaging in complex international diplomacy.
One significant factor driving Pakistan’s proactive foreign policy, especially in terms of energy procurement, is the global surge in energy prices, exacerbated by persistent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. With the Russia-Ukraine conflict dragging on into 2024, energy markets have remained volatile, creating pressure for energy-importing countries like Pakistan. Islamabad’s search for reliable and affordable energy supplies led it to deepen ties with Russia, despite the latter’s strained relations with the West. This energy cooperation has not only provided Pakistan with essential resources but also opened doors for broader collaboration with other states in the region.
In this context, Pakistan’s dialogue with Russia extends beyond oil imports and now encompasses discussions on gas pipeline projects. One such initiative is the long-proposed Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline (formerly the North-South Gas Pipeline), which has faced delays due to technical, financial, and geopolitical hurdles but is being revisited as a key component of Pakistan’s energy strategy. This 1,100-kilometer pipeline, expected to transport Russian-sourced liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Karachi to Lahore, holds the potential to diversify Pakistan’s energy mix, reduce its dependence on costly imports of refined fuels, and alleviate its chronic gas shortages. The project’s successful implementation would also position Pakistan as an important transit country for energy supplies in South Asia, further strengthening its strategic relevance in regional energy markets.
On the broader energy front, Pakistan’s engagement with energy-exporting nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, continues to be a cornerstone of its foreign policy. In 2024, Pakistan finalized a new long-term LNG supply agreement with Qatar, extending until 2035. This deal, which builds on the earlier agreements signed in 2016 and 2021, secures a stable and affordable energy supply for Pakistan’s growing economy. Moreover, Pakistan’s longstanding military and political ties with Saudi Arabia have been further bolstered by recent agreements to invest in Pakistan’s energy infrastructure, particularly in refining and petrochemicals. Saudi Arabia’s planned multibillion-dollar investment in a new oil refinery in Gwadar, a key node of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), underscores the strategic importance of Pakistan in the evolving energy landscape of the Middle East and South Asia.
Another emerging facet of Pakistan’s energy diplomacy involves Central Asia, particularly in the context of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project. As of 2024, Pakistan has reaffirmed its commitment to this multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline, which aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and into South Asia. The project, long delayed due to security concerns in Afghanistan and regional political complications, is once again gaining momentum following renewed international interest in diversifying energy sources. Pakistan’s participation in TAPI not only addresses its domestic energy needs but also aligns with its broader objective of establishing itself as a regional hub for energy transit. The realization of this project would have far-reaching implications for regional cooperation, reducing Pakistan’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies and fostering economic integration across South Asia and Central Asia.
Moreover, Islamabad’s expanding energy diplomacy reflects a broader shift in its approach to international relations, where economic pragmatism and national security imperatives are intricately intertwined. As the country navigates the complex international environment of 2024, it faces the challenge of balancing its deepening relationships with Russia and China against its ties with the West. This balancing act is particularly delicate given the mounting pressure on Pakistan from the United States and European Union to comply with sanctions regimes related to Russia and Iran. Despite these pressures, Pakistan continues to prioritize its energy security, as illustrated by its import of Russian crude and discussions with Iran on energy cooperation, including electricity imports and the construction of a pipeline to transport Iranian natural gas to Pakistan.
On the economic front, Pakistan’s engagement with BRICS in 2024 continues to develop beyond mere aspirations for membership. While the formal inclusion process remains ongoing, Pakistan has actively participated in BRICS-related economic dialogues and initiatives aimed at enhancing cooperation among developing economies. For instance, Pakistan has engaged in financial discussions with the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) for potential funding of its infrastructure projects, including energy and transportation. These projects align with Pakistan’s broader economic goals, as outlined in its Vision 2025 strategy, which emphasizes the need to enhance connectivity, improve energy infrastructure, and modernize its industrial base. BRICS membership, once formalized, is expected to accelerate Pakistan’s access to financing for these ambitious projects, further strengthening its position within the global economic system.
In addition to economic and energy diplomacy, Pakistan’s evolving stance on Afghanistan remains a critical aspect of its foreign policy. As of 2024, Pakistan has played an increasingly active role in regional diplomacy aimed at stabilizing Afghanistan and integrating the country into regional economic and security frameworks. Pakistan’s leadership in organizing trilateral meetings with China and Afghanistan has been pivotal in facilitating economic cooperation, including discussions on extending CPEC into Afghanistan. Such initiatives are designed to stabilize the region by fostering economic development and reducing the likelihood of terrorism or conflict spilling over into neighboring countries.
Pakistan’s pragmatic approach to Afghanistan also extends to its participation in multilateral security dialogues. In early 2024, Pakistan hosted a high-level meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS), focusing on counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan and the broader region. This meeting highlighted Pakistan’s growing role as a key player in regional security, particularly in combating the threat posed by extremist groups operating along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The success of these efforts will be crucial for ensuring regional stability, particularly as Afghanistan’s political and security situation remains fragile under Taliban rule.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s evolving foreign policy also encompasses its role within the United Nations and its peacekeeping operations, where the country remains one of the largest contributors. In 2024, Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to multilateralism by increasing its involvement in UN peacekeeping missions, particularly in conflict zones in Africa. This continued engagement not only enhances Pakistan’s standing within the international community but also allows Islamabad to project soft power and strengthen diplomatic ties with countries where its peacekeepers are deployed.
On the domestic front, Pakistan’s evolving energy policy has also been shaped by the imperative to modernize its power sector and reduce its carbon footprint. As part of its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, Pakistan has set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable energy in its energy mix to 30% by 2030. In 2024, Pakistan made significant progress in this area, with the commissioning of new wind and solar power projects across Sindh and Balochistan. These developments are aligned with the government’s broader energy transition strategy, which aims to reduce the country’s dependence on imported fossil fuels and address the challenges posed by climate change.
Pakistan’s domestic efforts to boost renewable energy capacity have been complemented by international partnerships, including collaborations with China and Germany. China’s continued investment in renewable energy projects in Pakistan, particularly through CPEC, has played a crucial role in expanding the country’s renewable energy infrastructure. At the same time, Germany’s technical assistance and investment in green energy initiatives have provided Pakistan with the expertise and resources needed to accelerate its energy transition. As a result, Pakistan’s renewable energy capacity is expected to increase significantly over the next decade, contributing to both energy security and environmental sustainability.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s foreign policy in 2024 is characterized by a dynamic and multifaceted approach to international relations. The country’s efforts to secure energy supplies, deepen economic partnerships, and assert its role in regional diplomacy reflect a pragmatic strategy aimed at navigating the complexities of the global order. As Pakistan continues to pursue its national interests on the international stage, its ability to balance competing priorities and forge strategic alliances will be crucial for its long-term stability and prosperity. The interplay between energy diplomacy, regional security, and global economic engagement will shape Pakistan’s foreign policy trajectory in the years to come, as the country seeks to secure its place in an increasingly interconnected and multipolar world.
Pakistan’s Military and Strategic Assets: An Overview
As of 2024, Pakistan’s military remains one of the most powerful in the region, supported by significant investments in conventional and non-conventional capabilities. Pakistan’s military doctrine is shaped by its historical rivalry with India, but its strategic focus has broadened in recent years to include a wider range of regional security concerns, particularly regarding Afghanistan, terrorism, and growing tensions in the broader Middle East.
Conventional Military Strength
Pakistan’s conventional military assets are among the largest in the world, with the Pakistan Armed Forces ranking as the sixth-largest military globally in terms of active personnel. The following are key components of its conventional forces:
- Army: The Pakistan Army has approximately 600,000 active-duty personnel and maintains a robust reserve force. The army is equipped with a diverse array of modern artillery systems, tanks (including the locally produced Al-Khalid and Chinese-supplied VT-4 tanks), and armored vehicles. Pakistan has developed an indigenous defense industry, enabling it to manufacture and upgrade various weapons systems domestically, reducing reliance on foreign imports.
- Air Force (PAF): The Pakistan Air Force plays a critical role in ensuring Pakistan’s aerial defense. As of 2024, PAF’s combat fleet includes modern fourth-generation fighter jets, such as the JF-17 Thunder (co-developed with China), F-16 Fighting Falcons (acquired from the United States), and newly inducted J-10C multirole fighters from China. PAF has made strides in modernizing its air defense systems and is enhancing its capabilities in airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) to ensure strategic air superiority.
- Navy: The Pakistan Navy is primarily tasked with defending Pakistan’s maritime interests in the Indian Ocean. It operates submarines (including Agosta 90B-class and the forthcoming Chinese Yuan-class submarines with air-independent propulsion systems), surface combatants, and aircraft to protect its long coastline and maintain regional maritime security. The development of the Gwadar port, which has strategic significance for both Pakistan and China, further enhances Pakistan’s naval capabilities in the region. With ongoing tensions in the Arabian Sea, the navy is expected to receive increased investment for modernizing its fleet and expanding its presence.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Capability: The Foundation of Its Strategic Deterrence
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, which began in response to India’s nuclear tests in the 1970s, is the cornerstone of its national defense strategy. Pakistan maintains a nuclear doctrine that emphasizes deterrence, ensuring the capability to respond to any nuclear aggression. Pakistan has the world’s fifth-largest nuclear arsenal, with estimates in 2024 suggesting it possesses approximately 165-175 nuclear warheads, potentially increasing to over 200 in the coming decade.
Key elements of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence posture include:
- Ballistic Missiles: Pakistan has developed a wide array of short, medium, and long-range ballistic missile systems capable of delivering nuclear payloads. These include the Shaheen series (with ranges of up to 2,750 kilometers), the Ghaznavi, and the Nasr short-range ballistic missiles, the latter of which is designed for tactical nuclear warfare. The development of these systems aims to counter Indian advancements in missile defense systems, ensuring the survivability of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
- Cruise Missiles: Pakistan has also developed nuclear-capable cruise missiles such as the Babur and Ra’ad series. These missiles provide Pakistan with the ability to deliver precision strikes at varying ranges, including sea-based deterrents launched from submarines, enhancing the survivability of its nuclear forces in the event of a first strike by an adversary.
- Second-Strike Capability: Pakistan is actively working towards achieving a credible second-strike capability through its submarine-based nuclear deterrent. This would significantly enhance Pakistan’s nuclear posture by ensuring its ability to retaliate even if its land-based nuclear assets are compromised. The integration of nuclear-capable submarines into the navy remains a high priority for Pakistan’s strategic planners, as this will provide Pakistan with a more diversified nuclear deterrence framework.
- Command and Control: Pakistan maintains a robust command and control system for its nuclear forces under the authority of the National Command Authority (NCA). This system ensures tight oversight of the deployment, storage, and potential use of nuclear weapons, with mechanisms in place to prevent unauthorized use while maintaining rapid response capabilities in the event of an imminent threat.
Geopolitical Ramifications of Pakistan’s Potential BRICS Membership
Should Pakistan gain membership in BRICS, the geopolitical landscape would witness significant shifts. Pakistan’s entry into BRICS would have far-reaching implications for regional alliances, economic partnerships, and the global balance of power. The implications for NATO, Europe, the United States, and broader strategic blocs are considerable, as BRICS is increasingly seen as an alternative to the Western-dominated international order.
Economic Realignment and the Multipolar World
Pakistan’s inclusion in BRICS would signal a deeper integration into the emerging multipolar world, where the traditional Western-led economic order, dominated by institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, is increasingly being challenged by alternatives such as the BRICS New Development Bank. For Pakistan, BRICS membership would provide access to alternative sources of development finance, allowing Islamabad to reduce its dependence on Western financial institutions, which have often imposed strict austerity measures in exchange for loans.
From a global economic perspective, Pakistan’s membership in BRICS could accelerate the shift toward a more multipolar financial system. With countries like China, Russia, and India playing leading roles in BRICS, the forum has been exploring ways to create an alternative currency system that could reduce global reliance on the U.S. dollar. Pakistan, with its growing trade ties with China and Russia, could become a key player in this effort to challenge the dollar’s dominance. This could weaken the leverage that Western institutions, particularly the United States, have traditionally wielded over countries like Pakistan through dollar-based financial instruments and sanctions.
Strategic Shifts in South Asia and Beyond
Pakistan’s membership in BRICS would strengthen its position in South Asia, potentially shifting the region’s balance of power. BRICS would provide Pakistan with new opportunities for economic collaboration and security partnerships that could counterbalance India’s influence. While India remains a member of BRICS, Pakistan’s inclusion could lead to a more competitive environment within the organization, as both countries vie for influence over key economic and political initiatives.
For Pakistan, BRICS membership could also enhance its leverage in disputes with India, particularly over Kashmir. While BRICS as a group is unlikely to intervene directly in bilateral conflicts, the presence of China and Russia, both of whom maintain close relations with Pakistan, could provide Islamabad with greater diplomatic support in international forums such as the United Nations.
Impacts on NATO and Western Alliances
For NATO, Pakistan’s BRICS membership could complicate the alliance’s strategic calculus, particularly as Pakistan deepens its military and economic ties with Russia and China. Pakistan has traditionally maintained close security ties with the United States, particularly through its cooperation in the War on Terror. However, recent developments suggest that Pakistan is increasingly looking eastward for strategic partnerships, with its relationship with Washington showing signs of strain, particularly over issues related to Afghanistan and counterterrorism.
NATO’s strategic priorities in South Asia could be affected by Pakistan’s shift toward BRICS, as it would likely deepen Islamabad’s cooperation with Russia and China on defense and security issues. For instance, Pakistan’s military modernization programs, which have increasingly relied on Chinese and Russian military hardware, could expand further, providing Pakistan with advanced technologies and capabilities that challenge the conventional military balance in the region.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s alignment with BRICS could weaken Western influence in Afghanistan, as Islamabad plays a key role in shaping the future of Afghan security. With China and Russia playing leading roles in BRICS, their influence over Afghanistan’s reconstruction and stabilization efforts could increase, potentially sidelining NATO and the United States.
The United States and Pakistan’s Realignment
For the United States, Pakistan’s membership in BRICS would represent a significant realignment of its traditional South Asian ally. While Pakistan has been a major non-NATO ally of the United States for decades, particularly during the Cold War and the War on Terror, recent years have seen a drift in relations, as Pakistan has sought to diversify its international partnerships. Washington’s growing strategic partnership with India has also strained its ties with Pakistan, as New Delhi has become a key U.S. ally in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Pakistan’s inclusion in BRICS could accelerate its pivot away from the United States, as it deepens its economic and security ties with Russia and China. For the United States, this would complicate its efforts to maintain influence in South Asia, particularly in the context of its broader strategic competition with China. Washington may respond by increasing its military and economic support to India, further solidifying its role as the primary counterbalance to China’s influence in the region.
At the same time, the United States could seek to re-engage with Pakistan by offering incentives, such as trade agreements or military aid, in an attempt to prevent a full-blown realignment. However, given the growing economic and strategic benefits that BRICS membership would offer Pakistan, it is unlikely that Islamabad would reverse course, even in the face of renewed U.S. engagement.
Europe’s Strategic Concerns
For Europe, Pakistan’s membership in BRICS could signal a broader realignment of emerging economies away from Western-led institutions. European countries, which have historically viewed Pakistan through the lens of its strategic partnership with the United States and NATO, would need to reassess their relationships with Islamabad. As Pakistan becomes more integrated into the BRICS framework, European countries may find it increasingly difficult to leverage their economic and political influence over Pakistan, particularly in areas such as human rights and democratic governance.
Europe’s strategic interests in South Asia, particularly in terms of trade routes and energy security, could also be affected by Pakistan’s realignment. As BRICS countries push for greater economic cooperation, Europe may find itself excluded from key trade and investment opportunities in the region, particularly as Pakistan strengthens its ties with China and Russia.
