ABSTRACT
Coffee, one of the most globally cherished beverages, is now facing an imminent crisis that threatens its availability and economic accessibility. By 2025, experts project a significant 25% surge in coffee prices, largely due to climate change and currency volatility, which are impacting two of the world’s largest coffee producers: Brazil and Vietnam. This crisis poses not only an economic burden for consumers but also profound challenges for millions of individuals whose livelihoods depend on coffee cultivation and trade. The ramifications of this crisis are multifaceted, spanning environmental, economic, and social domains, and require urgent attention to mitigate long-term impacts.
Anton Trenin, an expert at the Russian Analytical Credit Rating Agency, provides an insightful analysis of this unfolding crisis. According to Trenin, the complexities of the coffee market are closely interwoven with climate change and macroeconomic instabilities. Russia, entirely dependent on coffee imports, is particularly susceptible to these disruptions. The climatic and economic perturbations affecting Brazil and Vietnam, despite their geographical remoteness, directly influence coffee prices and availability in markets like Russia. Brazil, which produces a substantial portion of the world’s Arabica coffee, is experiencing persistent droughts, while Vietnam, a key producer of the more bitter Robusta variety, is grappling with frequent typhoons and erratic rainfall. These climatic adversities have exacerbated production challenges, with far-reaching consequences for global supply.
Coffee cultivation is highly sensitive to environmental conditions. In Brazil, recurrent droughts, punctuated by sudden heavy rains, have disrupted production cycles, thereby reducing both yield and quality. The coffee cherries are often stunted, and diseases such as leaf rust proliferate under these stressed conditions. The uneven availability of water also affects the flowering and fruiting stages of coffee plants, leading to irregular maturation and inconsistent bean quality. In Vietnam, the increasing frequency of typhoons and inconsistent rainfall patterns has caused severe disruptions to farming practices, damaging coffee trees and depleting essential soil nutrients. These climatic irregularities pose significant obstacles for coffee farmers, complicating their efforts to sustain yields and maintain quality. The unpredictability of weather patterns further complicates long-term planning for farmers, making it challenging to determine optimal planting and harvesting schedules.
Beyond climatic factors, currency fluctuations play a pivotal role in driving up coffee prices. Since coffee is traded on global markets in U.S. dollars, any variation in the dollar’s value directly impacts prices. Countries like Russia, where the national currency has depreciated against the dollar, have seen a marked increase in the cost of coffee imports. Consequently, the combined effect of rising international coffee prices and unfavorable currency exchange rates has made coffee increasingly unaffordable for many consumers, particularly in economies already contending with inflationary pressures. The ripple effects of these currency fluctuations are not limited to consumers; they also affect importers, retailers, and the broader supply chain, further exacerbating the economic strain.
Historically, the coffee market has always been subject to volatility, characterized by cyclical periods of boom and bust driven by supply shocks, shifts in demand, and geopolitical factors. The frost in Brazil during the 1970s, which led to a significant reduction in coffee output and a subsequent surge in prices, is a notable example of such volatility. However, the current crisis differs fundamentally due to the enduring and systemic nature of climate change. Unlike past episodes, which were often followed by recovery, the current scenario necessitates long-term adaptations to sustain production amidst increasingly unpredictable climatic conditions. The chronic nature of climate change implies that coffee producers must now focus on resilience-building strategies rather than merely recovering from isolated incidents.
For coffee farmers in Brazil and Vietnam, these challenges constitute existential threats. Many are smallholders who manage only a few hectares of land. Climatic unpredictability—whether in the form of prolonged droughts or excessive rainfall—often leads to crop failures and financial ruin. Some farmers have already abandoned coffee cultivation in favor of more resilient crops that can better withstand climatic volatility. This shift, however, represents not only an economic loss but also the erosion of cultural traditions and community identity, which have been intimately linked to coffee cultivation for generations. The abandonment of coffee farming also has cascading effects on local economies, as coffee-related activities such as processing and trading decline, further exacerbating rural poverty.
The repercussions extend beyond individual farmers. Coffee cultivation underpins local economies, providing employment across various sectors including processing, transportation, and exportation. Declining production results in job losses, exacerbating poverty and economic instability in rural areas. In Vietnam, for instance, the destruction of coffee plantations by typhoons leads to prolonged productivity losses, costly replanting efforts, and increased rural poverty. This economic strain often compels rural populations to migrate to urban centers, placing additional pressure on already overextended urban infrastructures. The migration of displaced farmers contributes to the growth of informal settlements in cities, straining public services and leading to increased socioeconomic disparities.
Market speculation further complicates the situation. Speculators, who trade coffee futures based on anticipated price movements, can exacerbate price volatility, particularly during periods of supply uncertainty. While speculation can enhance market liquidity, it also amplifies price swings, adding another layer of unpredictability. For farmers already struggling with adverse conditions, such speculative-driven price increases offer little solace, as they are disconnected from the realities of production and instead reflect market dynamics far removed from the farm. The involvement of financial actors who are detached from the physical coffee market underscores the disconnect between the commodity’s real value and its trading price, creating an environment where farmers bear the brunt of market fluctuations without benefiting from higher prices.
To mitigate these challenges, a multifaceted approach is required. One potential solution lies in developing climate-resilient coffee varieties—strains that are more resistant to drought, pests, and other environmental stressors. While researchers are making progress in this area, developing and distributing these varieties takes considerable time and resources. Small-scale farmers, already operating under financial constraints, may find it difficult to access these new seeds without substantial support from governments or international organizations. Moreover, investments in infrastructure, such as irrigation systems in Brazil and improved drainage in Vietnam, are essential to help farmers adapt to the changing climate, but such investments are often beyond the reach of individual farmers without external assistance. International cooperation, involving both public and private stakeholders, is crucial to mobilize the resources needed for such investments.
Technological advancements could also play a crucial role in enhancing resilience. Precision agriculture, which involves the use of satellite data and soil sensors to optimize farming practices, holds promise for improving efficiency and productivity. However, the implementation of such technologies remains largely inaccessible to many smallholder farmers due to high costs and a lack of technical expertise. Bridging this gap will require targeted interventions aimed at making these technologies more affordable and widely available. Governments, NGOs, and private sector players must work together to provide training programs and subsidies that can facilitate the adoption of these technologies, thereby empowering farmers to make data-driven decisions that enhance productivity and resilience.
In the interim, rising coffee prices will necessitate difficult choices for consumers. The question remains whether consumers will be willing to pay a premium for sustainably produced coffee that supports fair wages for farmers and promotes environmental stewardship. Initiatives like fair trade, which guarantee minimum prices and provide premiums for community development, offer a pathway to support vulnerable coffee producers, but their impact depends on widespread consumer commitment to these principles. Ultimately, these choices reflect broader societal values—how much do we, as consumers, value the livelihoods of those who produce the commodities we cherish? The willingness to pay more for sustainably sourced coffee can directly influence the future of the coffee industry, potentially ensuring that farmers receive fair compensation and that environmental practices are upheld.
The current state of the coffee industry is a testament to both resilience and fragility. The future of coffee depends on collective action—ranging from supporting sustainable agricultural practices to investing in research and infrastructure that can mitigate the impacts of climate change. While the challenges are substantial, the potential rewards of finding effective solutions are equally significant. Coffee is more than just a commodity; it is an integral part of cultural heritage and a source of livelihood for millions worldwide. Moving forward, the hope is that through innovation, cooperation, and a renewed commitment to sustainability, the coffee industry can navigate these turbulent times and continue to bring comfort and vitality to people’s lives.
The path ahead for coffee producers, consumers, and stakeholders is fraught with complexity, but it also presents opportunities for positive transformation. Addressing the coffee crisis requires a holistic understanding of the interdependencies within the global supply chain. Governments must implement policies that incentivize sustainable farming practices, provide financial support to smallholders, and facilitate market access for coffee producers. International organizations can play a pivotal role by fostering cooperation among producing and consuming countries, thereby ensuring that knowledge, resources, and best practices are shared effectively.
For producers, diversification is emerging as a potential strategy to mitigate risk. By cultivating other crops alongside coffee, farmers can create additional revenue streams that help buffer against the financial impact of poor coffee harvests. Agroforestry, where coffee is grown under the shade of native trees, not only diversifies income but also enhances biodiversity and improves soil health, creating a more sustainable agricultural ecosystem. These approaches require a shift in mindset, from viewing coffee as a monoculture to integrating it into a broader, diversified farming system that offers greater resilience against climate shocks.
On the consumer side, education and awareness are key. Understanding the challenges faced by coffee producers can foster empathy and a willingness to support sustainable practices. Consumers can make informed choices by opting for certified coffee brands that adhere to fair trade, organic, or other sustainability standards. Moreover, the role of the private sector, particularly large coffee companies, cannot be overlooked. These companies have the power to drive significant change by committing to ethical sourcing practices, investing in farmer support programs, and reducing the carbon footprint of their supply chains.
In conclusion, the coffee crisis is a multifaceted issue that encompasses environmental, economic, and social dimensions. It requires an integrated approach that addresses both the immediate needs of farmers and the long-term sustainability of the coffee industry. By leveraging technological innovations, fostering international cooperation, and encouraging consumer engagement, stakeholders can work towards building a more resilient coffee sector. The journey ahead is challenging, but with collective effort, it is possible to ensure that coffee continues to be a source of livelihood for millions and a cherished part of daily life for consumers around the world.
Coffee, as one of the most widely consumed beverages globally, is currently facing a crisis that could significantly alter its market dynamics in the coming years. By 2025, coffee prices are projected to surge by approximately 25%, largely due to adverse climatic conditions impacting the two major coffee-producing nations, Brazil and Vietnam. This anticipated price escalation carries profound implications not only for coffee consumers but also for economies heavily reliant on coffee production and export. The emerging challenges underscore a deepening crisis in the coffee industry that warrants rigorous examination.
This cautionary outlook has been articulated by Anton Trenin, an expert from the Russian Analytical Credit Rating Agency’s (ACRA) corporate ratings group. Trenin’s analysis of the dynamics influencing coffee production reveals a complex interplay of factors, with climate change and currency volatility emerging as principal drivers. He emphasizes that Russia, a nation entirely dependent on coffee imports, is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in the global market. This dependency exemplifies the broader, cascading consequences of disruptions in regional coffee production on a global scale.
Brazil and Vietnam: The Cornerstones of Global Coffee Supply
Globally, coffee production is predominantly bifurcated into Arabica and Robusta varieties, with Arabica comprising 70% and Robusta accounting for the remaining 30%. Brazil, the largest producer of Arabica coffee, plays a crucial role in meeting roughly one-third of global demand for this variety. However, persistent drought conditions have placed immense strain on Brazilian coffee production. Prolonged periods of inadequate rainfall have raised concerns not only for local producers but also for international traders who depend on a consistent supply of high-quality Arabica beans.
Vietnam, conversely, is the leading global producer of Robusta coffee, a variety known for its robust, bitter flavor, commonly used in instant coffee and espresso blends. Recent climatic disturbances, including typhoons and atypically scarce rainfall, have severely affected Vietnam’s coffee yield. The combined effect of these adverse conditions in the two largest coffee-producing countries has significantly tightened the global coffee supply chain.
The economic repercussions of these disruptions are extensive. Coffee prices on international exchanges have surged to levels not seen in decades. Specifically, the price of January futures for Robusta coffee recently surpassed $5,500 per tonne, a level not observed since at least 2008. Similarly, the price of Arabica rose above $7,300 per tonne, marking a record high since 1977. This dramatic escalation in prices directly reflects the constrained supply and heightened uncertainties regarding future harvests.
The Impact of Climatic Variability on Coffee Yields
The challenges faced by Brazil and Vietnam underscore the vulnerability of coffee cultivation to climatic variability. Coffee is a crop that requires precise climatic conditions—temperatures between 15°C and 24°C, adequate but not excessive rainfall, and stable weather patterns. However, climate change has introduced considerable unpredictability, disrupting these delicate requirements.
In Brazil, recurrent droughts are primarily attributed to shifting weather patterns influenced by global climate change. The country’s primary coffee-growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, which accounts for the majority of Brazil’s Arabica production, have experienced extended dry spells interspersed with sporadic heavy rainfall. This erratic weather pattern has not only reduced yields but also compromised bean quality. Coffee cherries, which require consistent moisture for proper development, are often stunted or suffer from defects due to prolonged drought followed by sudden downpours.
The effects of these droughts extend beyond the immediate impact on yields. The stress placed on coffee plants during periods of insufficient water not only affects the quantity of cherries produced but also leads to an increased susceptibility to pests and diseases. Pests such as the coffee berry borer and leaf rust have become more prevalent under these stressed conditions, further exacerbating the challenges for coffee producers. This dynamic interplay between climatic stressors and pest proliferation poses an existential threat to coffee cultivation in Brazil.
Vietnam, too, is confronting its own set of climatic challenges. The country is particularly susceptible to typhoons, which have increased in both frequency and intensity in recent years. These storms can inflict severe damage on coffee plantations, uprooting trees, eroding topsoil, and causing flooding that devastates entire harvests. Furthermore, unpredictable rainfall complicates irrigation practices, making it challenging for farmers to maintain optimal growing conditions for their coffee crops.
The unpredictable nature of rainfall patterns in Vietnam also complicates long-term agricultural planning. Farmers often struggle to determine the best times for planting and harvesting, leading to inefficiencies that can further reduce yields. Moreover, flooding caused by typhoons can wash away not only crops but also the essential nutrients in the soil, degrading its fertility and requiring significant efforts to restore productivity. The cumulative impact of these climatic adversities is a significant reduction in both the quantity and quality of coffee produced.
For consumers, this translates into higher prices and potentially lower-quality products, as producers struggle to satisfy global demand. For farmers—especially smallholders, who constitute the majority of coffee producers in both Brazil and Vietnam—the challenges are existential. Many face the prospect of abandoning coffee cultivation altogether if conditions do not improve, further exacerbating the supply crisis.
Currency Fluctuations and the Cost of Coffee Imports
Beyond climatic influences, the cost of coffee is also heavily affected by currency fluctuations, particularly the valuation of the US dollar. Since coffee is traded on international markets in US dollars, any significant shifts in the dollar’s value can have a direct effect on coffee prices. For countries like Russia, which rely entirely on coffee imports, the exchange rate plays a critical role in determining the final cost of coffee for consumers.
The recent appreciation of the US dollar against many emerging market currencies has added an additional layer of complexity to the coffee market. For Russian consumers, the depreciation of the ruble has led to a substantial increase in the cost of importing coffee. This has been compounded by rising global coffee prices, resulting in a scenario where retail coffee prices in Russia have surged beyond what might be expected from supply constraints alone.
Trenin asserts that this confluence of factors—climatic disruptions in producing countries and unfavorable currency movements—creates a perfect storm for coffee prices. Russian consumers, already contending with rising inflation and economic uncertainty, are likely to experience further increases in coffee prices, making this once-affordable commodity increasingly inaccessible for many.
Historical Context: Coffee Price Volatility
To fully comprehend the current situation, it is essential to situate it within the broader historical context of coffee price volatility. The coffee market has always been characterized by fluctuations driven by a combination of supply-side shocks, shifts in demand, and speculative activity. However, the present crisis stands out for its severity and the multiplicity of contributing factors.
Historically, coffee prices have been highly sensitive to changes in weather conditions in key producing regions. For instance, the frost of 1975 in Brazil led to a substantial reduction in coffee output, which in turn caused prices to skyrocket. Similarly, droughts in the early 2000s led to significant price hikes, although these were relatively short-lived as production rebounded in subsequent years.
The coffee price crisis of the 1970s also provides valuable insights into the current situation. During that period, geopolitical tensions, coupled with climatic disruptions, led to unprecedented volatility in coffee prices. The frost in Brazil in 1975 was not an isolated event; it coincided with political instability in coffee-producing countries in Africa, further straining global supply. The lessons from this period highlight the interconnected nature of geopolitical, climatic, and market factors in shaping coffee prices.
What makes the current crisis particularly concerning is the persistent and long-term nature of the challenges facing coffee producers. Climate change is not a transient phenomenon; its effects are expected to intensify in the coming years. Unlike previous episodes of price spikes, which were often followed by periods of stability, the current crisis appears to be part of a longer-term trend of escalating volatility and rising prices.
In addition to climatic factors, changes in consumer preferences have also played a role in shaping the dynamics of the coffee market. The growing demand for specialty coffees, which require specific conditions for cultivation, has placed additional pressure on producers. Specialty coffee, often grown in high-altitude regions with unique microclimates, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. As these regions face increasing climatic instability, the supply of specialty coffee is likely to become even more constrained, further driving up prices.
The Socioeconomic Implications for Coffee-Producing Communities
The ramifications of rising coffee prices extend beyond the global market; they have profound implications for the millions of individuals whose livelihoods depend on coffee cultivation. In Brazil and Vietnam, coffee serves as a major source of income for rural communities, providing employment and underpinning local economies. However, the mounting challenges associated with coffee production are exerting significant pressure on these communities.
In Brazil, many coffee farmers are smallholders cultivating less than 10 hectares of land. These farmers are particularly vulnerable to climatic shocks, as they often lack the financial resources needed to invest in irrigation systems or other technologies that could mitigate the effects of drought. Consequently, many face declining yields and rising costs, jeopardizing their ability to sustain their farms. Economic pressures are leading some farmers to abandon coffee cultivation altogether, opting instead for crops that are less susceptible to climatic variability.
The abandonment of coffee farming has significant socioeconomic repercussions. Coffee cultivation is not just a source of income; it is also a cultural practice that has shaped rural communities for generations. The loss of coffee farms means the loss of traditional knowledge and practices, as well as the disintegration of community structures that have formed around coffee production. This cultural erosion, coupled with economic hardship, contributes to the broader marginalization of rural communities.
In Vietnam, the situation is similarly dire. The coffee industry is dominated by small-scale farmers, many of whom depend on coffee as their primary source of income. The increasing frequency of typhoons and erratic rainfall has made coffee cultivation an increasingly precarious endeavor. For many farmers, the costs associated with replanting trees, repairing storm damage, and managing water resources have become unsustainable. This has led to a growing exodus from coffee farming, with potentially devastating consequences for rural communities that rely on the crop.
The socioeconomic implications of this crisis extend beyond the immediate challenges faced by farmers. In both Brazil and Vietnam, the coffee industry is a major employer, providing jobs not only for farmers but also for workers involved in processing, transportation, and exportation. As production declines, so too does the demand for labor, leading to rising unemployment and economic hardship in coffee-producing regions. The loss of income from coffee exports also has broader ramifications for national economies, particularly in Vietnam, where coffee is a significant export commodity.
The economic instability in coffee-producing regions also has broader implications for social cohesion. As farmers abandon coffee cultivation and unemployment rises, rural communities face increased risks of poverty, migration, and social unrest. The migration of displaced farmers to urban areas in search of work places additional pressure on already strained urban infrastructure and services, exacerbating socioeconomic inequalities.
The Role of Speculation and Market Dynamics
In addition to climatic factors and currency fluctuations, speculative activity in the coffee market has also contributed to rising prices. The coffee market, like many other commodity markets, is subject to speculative trading, where investors buy and sell coffee futures contracts in anticipation of future price movements. While speculation can provide liquidity to the market, it can also exacerbate price volatility, especially during periods of supply uncertainty.
The recent surge in coffee prices has attracted considerable interest from speculators, who are betting on further price increases as the supply situation continues to worsen. This speculative activity has exerted additional upward pressure on coffee prices, contributing to the record levels observed in recent months. Although speculators are not the primary cause of the current crisis, their actions have amplified the effects of supply constraints, making it even more challenging for consumers to afford coffee.
Speculation in the coffee market is often driven by broader trends in the commodities sector. The interconnections between different commodity markets mean that fluctuations in the price of oil, for example, can influence investor behavior in the coffee market. When oil prices rise, the cost of production and transportation for coffee also increases, prompting speculators to anticipate higher coffee prices and drive up futures contracts accordingly. This interconnectedness adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile market.
Potential Solutions and Adaptation Strategies
Addressing the challenges confronting the global coffee market will require a multifaceted approach that considers both short-term and long-term factors driving the crisis. One potential solution is to invest in climate-resilient coffee varieties capable of withstanding the changing conditions in key producing regions. Researchers are actively working on developing new coffee cultivars that exhibit greater resistance to drought, pests, and diseases, which could help mitigate some of the impacts of climate change on coffee production.
However, the development and adoption of climate-resilient coffee varieties are not without challenges. The process of breeding new varieties is time-consuming and requires significant financial investment. Moreover, new cultivars must be tested across different environments to ensure their adaptability, which further extends the timeline for their deployment. Small-scale farmers, who are already struggling with limited resources, may find it difficult to access these new varieties without targeted support from governments and international organizations.
In addition to developing new coffee varieties, there is an urgent need for increased investment in infrastructure and technology to help farmers adapt to changing climatic conditions. In Brazil, for example, the construction of irrigation systems could alleviate the effects of drought, while in Vietnam, improved drainage systems could help protect coffee plantations from the destructive impact of typhoons and flooding. However, these investments require substantial financial resources, which may be beyond the reach of many small-scale farmers without external support.
International organizations and governments also have a critical role to play in supporting coffee farmers through this crisis. Programs that provide financial assistance, technical training, and access to credit can enable farmers to invest in the technologies and practices needed to adapt to changing conditions. Furthermore, efforts to strengthen cooperatives and farmer organizations can help smallholders gain better access to markets and improve their bargaining power, enabling them to secure fairer prices for their coffee.
The role of technology in enhancing the resilience of coffee production cannot be overstated. Precision agriculture, which involves the use of data and technology to optimize farming practices, offers significant potential for improving the efficiency and sustainability of coffee cultivation. Technologies such as satellite imagery, soil sensors, and climate modeling can provide farmers with real-time information on weather conditions, soil health, and pest threats, enabling them to make informed decisions and reduce the risks associated with climatic variability.
The Future of Coffee: A Delicate Balance
The future of coffee is at a critical juncture, with the industry facing significant challenges that threaten its long-term sustainability. Climate change, currency fluctuations, and speculative activity have all contributed to the current crisis, driving up prices and creating uncertainty for both producers and consumers. Addressing these challenges will necessitate a concerted effort from all stakeholders, including farmers, governments, international organizations, and the private sector.
For consumers, the prospect of higher coffee prices may be an unwelcome development, but it also presents an opportunity to reconsider the true cost of coffee production. The challenges faced by coffee farmers serve as a stark reminder that the coffee enjoyed each day comes at a considerable cost—not only in terms of the financial resources required for its production but also in terms of the labor and environmental challenges involved. Supporting sustainable coffee production, whether by purchasing certified coffee or advocating for greater support for farmers, can help ensure that the coffee industry remains viable in the face of these challenges.
The concept of sustainability must also be extended to address the social dimensions of coffee production. Ensuring that farmers receive fair compensation for their labor is crucial for the long-term viability of the industry. Initiatives such as fair trade certification can help improve the livelihoods of small-scale farmers by guaranteeing minimum prices and providing a premium for community development projects. However, these initiatives must be scaled up and complemented by broader policy measures that address the structural inequalities in the coffee supply chain.
The coffee market is facing a convergence of challenges that have driven prices to unprecedented levels and created significant uncertainty for the future. The combined effects of climate change, currency fluctuations, and speculative activity have placed considerable pressure on both producers and consumers, with the most vulnerable being small-scale farmers in key producing regions. Addressing these challenges will require a comprehensive approach that includes investments in climate-resilient coffee varieties, infrastructure improvements, and support for farmers. Only through such efforts can the coffee industry navigate the current crisis and ensure that coffee remains a staple of daily life for millions of people around the world.
The path forward for the coffee industry will require collaboration, innovation, and a renewed commitment to sustainability. Governments, international organizations, and the private sector must work together to create an environment where coffee producers can thrive despite the challenges posed by climate change and market volatility. By investing in research, supporting smallholders, and promoting fair trade, the global community can help secure the future of coffee and protect the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on this vital crop. Ultimately, the resilience of the coffee industry will depend on our collective ability to address these challenges with urgency, empathy, and a long-term vision for sustainability.
The Dynamics of Green Coffee Exports: A New Era of Complexity
The global coffee market, as evidenced by recent data, is undergoing significant and multifaceted transformations in both production and pricing dynamics. The October 2024 Coffee Market Report provides a detailed snapshot of these complex developments, highlighting intricate trends in export volumes, price differentials, and the broader implications for the coffee trade. This new chapter aims to delve into the profound nuances of these data, offering an advanced perspective on the transformative shifts occurring across the coffee-producing regions and their implications for the industry.
Price Trends and the Role of Volatility
The International Coffee Organization’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) in October 2024 averaged 250.56 US cents per pound, reflecting a 3.2% decline from the preceding month. While this decline may appear modest, it belies significant intra-month fluctuations, with the I-CIP ranging between 241.70 and 263.96 US cents per pound. The increased volatility, which expanded by 0.5 percentage points to an average of 11.0%, underscores the elevated sensitivity of coffee prices to both intrinsic market conditions and broader macroeconomic influences.
Of particular note is the substantial increase in arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets, which expanded by 54.2% to reach 43.50 US cents per pound. This pronounced growth in arbitrage signifies a divergence in the price trajectories of Arabica and Robusta coffees, a divergence driven by differing supply-side pressures and market expectations. Such volatility has not only influenced futures trading but has also introduced heightened complexity into price discovery mechanisms and risk management strategies for producers and traders alike.
Regional Export Trends: Divergence and Complexity in Growth
In September 2024, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee experienced a robust increase of 30.8%, totaling 6.2 million bags. For the entire 2023/24 coffee year, exports from this region surged by 30.7%, reaching 66.13 million bags compared to 50.59 million bags in the previous year. Brazil and Colombia, the two largest producers and exporters in the region, saw their total exports rise dramatically by 34.3% and 13.7%, respectively, achieving 49.03 million bags and 11.91 million bags. For Brazil, these figures represent the largest exports on record, driven in part by the gap created in the Robusta market due to challenges faced by Vietnam. Although often overlooked, Brazil is the second-largest producer of Robusta coffee in the world, accounting for 32.0% of global supply in the 2022/23 coffee year.
Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa also showed positive growth, increasing by 14.3% to 1.37 million bags in September 2024, up from 1.2 million bags in September 2023. For the 2023/24 coffee year, exports from Africa were up 17.3%, totaling 16.02 million bags compared to 13.66 million bags in 2022/23. Ethiopia emerged as the primary driver of the region’s impressive growth, with exports up by 63.5%, reaching 5.59 million bags in 2023/24 compared to 3.42 million bags in the previous year. These figures represent the largest exports on record for Ethiopia and mark the first time the country surpassed the 5.0 million bags threshold. The surge in Ethiopia’s exports can be attributed to the resolution of internal contract disputes that had delayed shipments in 2022/23. It is important to note that Ethiopia’s exports had fallen by 15.0% in 2022/23, dropping to 3.42 million bags from 4.02 million bags in 2021/22, the lowest level since 3.09 million bags in the 2015/16 coffee year. Thus, the 5.59 million bags should be viewed as a recovery rather than a structural expansion.
In September 2024, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America increased by 18.1%, totaling 0.9 million bags compared to 0.76 million bags in September 2023. However, for the entire 2023/24 coffee year, the region’s exports declined by 4.1%, amounting to 14.51 million bags compared to 15.13 million bags in 2022/23. This downturn was primarily driven by setbacks in Honduras and Nicaragua, which experienced declines of 12.1% and 16.5%, respectively. Honduras’ performance was negatively impacted by the off-year in its biennial production cycle, while Nicaragua faced challenges due to the bankruptcy of Mercon Coffee Group in December 2023. Mercon Coffee Group, a significant coffee trader and the owner of CISA Exportadora, was responsible for more than half of Nicaragua’s coffee exports. Conversely, Guatemala and Mexico provided some positive momentum for the region, with exports increasing by 8.6% and 8.9%, respectively, reaching 3.28 million bags for Guatemala and 2.97 million bags for Mexico.
Asia and Oceania also exhibited a mixed performance. In September 2024, exports of all forms of coffee increased by 19.6%, totaling 2.29 million bags compared to 1.91 million bags in September 2023. However, for the entire 2023/24 coffee year, exports from Asia and Oceania declined by 6.7%, totaling 40.62 million bags compared to 43.54 million bags in the previous year. Vietnam, the largest producer and exporter in the region, was the primary driver of the decline, with its exports decreasing by 11.7% to 24.96 million bags—the lowest level since the 2014/15 coffee year, which saw exports of 22.03 million bags. The downturn in Vietnam’s exports was primarily due to tight domestic supply, reduced production from adverse weather conditions, a loss of productive areas to other cash crops, and depletion of local stocks. India, on the other hand, mitigated some of the negative effects within the region by recording a 10.0% increase in its exports, totaling 6.98 million bags in 2023/24 compared to 6.34 million bags in the previous year.
Exports of Coffee by Forms
In terms of coffee exports by forms, the overall landscape also showed varied performance. Total exports of soluble coffee grew significantly, increasing by 24.3% in September 2024 to 1.02 million bags compared to 0.82 million bags in September 2023. For the 2023/24 coffee year, soluble coffee exports were up 11.6%, reaching 12.82 million bags compared to 11.48 million bags in the previous year. The share of soluble coffee in the total exports of all forms of coffee remained stable at 9.3% for the year to date in September 2024, the same as in the prior year. Brazil continued to be the largest exporter of soluble coffee, with shipments totaling 0.37 million bags in September 2024 and 3.89 million bags for the 2023/24 coffee year.
In contrast, exports of roasted coffee beans experienced a decline. In September 2024, roasted coffee bean exports decreased by 9.2%, totaling 54,544 bags compared to 60,040 bags in September 2023. For the entire 2023/24 coffee year, roasted coffee exports fell slightly by 0.5%, reaching 0.71 million bags compared to 0.713 million bags in the previous year. This decline reflects shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics, where demand for freshly roasted coffee is increasingly being met through local roasting facilities rather than through imports, emphasizing the localization trend within the specialty coffee market.
Regional Divergences and Complex Growth Dynamics
The data on regional coffee exports for September 2024 and the broader 2023/24 coffee year reveal a picture of divergence and complexity within the global coffee trade. South America, particularly Brazil and Colombia, has emerged as a key driver of export growth, with Brazil achieving record-breaking export levels. Africa also demonstrated substantial growth, driven primarily by Ethiopia’s recovery from previous setbacks. Meanwhile, Mexico and Central America faced challenges stemming from production declines in Honduras and Nicaragua, although Guatemala and Mexico offered some positive contributions to the region’s export figures.
The mixed performance of Asia and Oceania highlights the disparities that persist within the global coffee market. While India’s positive growth helped mitigate some regional losses, Vietnam’s significant decline underscores the ongoing challenges related to supply constraints, climatic adversity, and competition for productive land. These regional dynamics reflect the inherent complexities of the coffee trade, which is shaped by a multitude of factors, including climatic conditions, economic policies, and evolving consumer preferences.
Exports by coffee form further illustrate the differentiated nature of growth across the industry. While soluble coffee exports have seen robust growth, driven by demand for convenience and affordability, roasted coffee exports have faced headwinds as the trend toward localization gains traction. The overall picture of global coffee exports is one of significant recovery in some areas, tempered by persistent vulnerabilities and challenges in others. As the coffee industry continues to adapt to these dynamics, stakeholders must prioritize resilience, sustainability, and collaboration to navigate an increasingly intricate global landscape.
Production and Certified Stocks: Dynamics of Supply Availability
This analysis also sheds light on the dynamics of certified coffee stocks, which serve as critical indicators of supply availability. Certified stocks of Robusta coffee in London experienced a marked decline of 11.7% from September to October 2024, closing the month at 0.66 million bags. This contraction in stocks aligns with the downward adjustment in Robusta prices, which fell by 8.3% over the same period to 221.93 US cents per pound. In contrast, certified stocks of Arabica coffee increased, rising by 4.7% to 0.91 million 60-kg bags, suggesting a relative alleviation of supply pressures for this variety.
The divergence in stock levels between Robusta and Arabica highlights the differing market conditions faced by these two coffee varieties. While Arabica production has benefited from favorable climatic conditions in certain regions, Robusta supply has been significantly constrained by adverse weather patterns, particularly in Vietnam. The lower certified stocks of Robusta are indicative of these supply challenges, which have in turn exacerbated price volatility and shaped market sentiment.
The Impact of European Union Regulatory Changes
A notable factor exerting influence on coffee prices in October 2024 was the regulatory developments within the European Union concerning deforestation. On October 2, the European Commission announced additional support for the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation, along with an extension of the phasing-in period by 12 months. This regulatory adjustment, designed to address concerns raised by global stakeholders, had a bearish effect on the I-CIP, precipitating a decline in the price to 245.29 US cents per pound by October 7.
The market’s response to these regulatory changes reflects the increasing influence of sustainability considerations on coffee pricing and international trade. The EU’s deforestation regulation, which mandates stricter traceability and sustainability standards for coffee imports, has introduced new compliance challenges for producers and exporters, particularly in regions where deforestation remains a significant concern. The extended timeline for compliance, although providing temporary relief to producers, also underscores the growing intricacies of aligning with international trade standards within the coffee sector.
Global Export Growth: A Record-Breaking Recovery and Complex Contextualization
In September 2024, global green bean exports reached 9.69 million bags, an increase of 25.2% compared to the same month in the previous year, which saw exports of 7.74 million bags. This growth reflects a notable surge in export activity across all major coffee groups. Brazilian Naturals led this increase, with exports rising by 37.3% to 3.68 million bags in September 2024. Similarly, shipments of Colombian Milds and Other Milds demonstrated significant year-on-year growth, increasing by 22.3% and 22.9%, respectively. These figures represent not only a recovery from the challenges of recent years but also the complex dynamics at play in the global coffee trade.
For the 2023/24 coffee year, green bean exports rose by 11.8%, totaling 123.75 million bags compared to 110.72 million bags in 2022/23, an absolute increase of 13.02 million bags. This constitutes the largest annual increase on record, surpassing the previous high of 9.27 million bags recorded in the 1995/96 coffee year. The rate and volume of this increase are largely attributable to the base effect of two consecutive years of downturn—1.1% in 2021/22 and 5.6% in 2022/23—during which global green bean exports fell from 118.66 million bags in 2020/21 to 110.72 million bags in 2022/23. Therefore, the double-digit increase in 2023/24 primarily reflects a recovery rather than an expansion beyond long-term trends.
To contextualize, global green bean exports had been growing at an average rate of 2.36 million bags per year between the 2010/11 and 2020/21 coffee years. However, this growth slowed to an average of only 1.69 million bags annually between the 2020/21 and 2023/24 coffee years. Despite the recent rebound, the actual export level of 123.75 million bags remains below the potential level of 125.73 million bags, underscoring the persistent challenges that continue to impact the global coffee supply chain.
Detailed Breakdown by Coffee Varieties
Shipments of Other Milds rose by 22.9% in September 2024, reaching 1.92 million bags compared to 1.56 million bags in September of the previous year. For the entire 2023/24 coffee year, exports of Other Milds increased by 4.7%, totaling 23.05 million bags compared to 22.02 million bags in 2022/23. This moderate but consistent growth is indicative of a gradual recovery from earlier declines and reflects ongoing efforts by producers to stabilize output amidst various challenges.
Green bean exports of Brazilian Naturals also experienced a substantial increase in September 2024, rising by 37.3% to 3.68 million bags. For the full 2023/24 coffee year, exports of Brazilian Naturals climbed by 22.6%, reaching 41.89 million bags compared to 34.16 million bags in 2022/23. This increase marks a significant recovery, driven largely by improved production conditions and robust global demand for Brazilian coffee varieties.
Exports of Colombian Milds rose by 22.3% to 0.99 million bags in September 2024, up from 0.81 million bags in September 2023. Over the entire 2023/24 coffee year, Colombian Milds exports increased by 14.3%, totaling 12.22 million bags compared to 10.69 million bags in 2022/23. The total green bean exports of Arabicas, encompassing Colombian Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Other Milds, increased by 15.47% to 77.17 million bags in 2023/24 from 66.68 million bags in 2022/23.
Recovery Within the Arabicas: Contextual Analysis
For Arabicas, the double-digit growth observed in the 2023/24 coffee year should be viewed as part of a broader recovery to align with long-term trends. Similar to the overall green bean export figures, the Arabicas category experienced two consecutive years of negative growth—3.1% in 2021/22 and 10.4% in 2022/23—before recording the largest absolute annual increase on record, amounting to 10.29 million bags. Historically, Arabica exports increased at an average rate of 1.45 million bags per year between the 2010/11 and 2020/21 coffee years. The potential level for Arabica exports, based on historical trends and production capacities, is estimated at 81.38 million bags, which indicates that there remains untapped potential despite the recent surge.
Robustas: A Mixed Performance Driven by Regional Disparities
Green bean exports of Robustas also demonstrated significant growth in September 2024, increasing by 15.4% to 3.1 million bags from 2.68 million bags in September 2023. For the full 2023/24 coffee year, Robusta exports rose by 6.2%, reaching 46.58 million bags compared to 43.84 million bags in the previous coffee year. This growth represents the highest annual export volume on record for Robustas, driven primarily by increased output from Brazil.
Brazil’s role in the Robusta market has expanded dramatically, with exports reaching 9.02 million bags in 2023/24, compared to just 2.84 million bags in 2022/23. This remarkable growth in Brazilian Robusta exports more than compensated for the significant decline in exports from Vietnam, which shipped 23.19 million bags in 2023/24, down from 26.13 million bags in the previous year. Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of Robusta, has struggled with domestic supply issues, with production falling below potential levels due to adverse weather conditions and logistical challenges.
The mixed performance of Robusta exports highlights the ongoing regional disparities within the global coffee market. While Brazil has been able to capitalize on favorable growing conditions and increased demand for Robusta, Vietnam’s difficulties underscore the vulnerabilities inherent in the global supply chain. The disparity between the two major Robusta producers points to the broader challenges faced by the coffee industry in maintaining stable and predictable supply flows amidst a changing climate and fluctuating market conditions.
A Record-Breaking Yet Uneven Recovery
The global green bean export data for September 2024 and the broader 2023/24 coffee year illustrate a period of significant recovery, characterized by record-breaking growth figures that nonetheless fall short of achieving full potential. The substantial increases in exports, particularly within the Brazilian Naturals and Robusta categories, reflect a rebound from the downturns of previous years rather than an indication of a new phase of expansion. The recovery is largely driven by improved conditions in certain key producing regions, such as Brazil, which has capitalized on favorable climatic and market conditions to boost exports.
However, the disparities observed between regions and varieties—such as the decline in Vietnamese Robusta exports versus the surge in Brazilian output—underscore the complexities and challenges that continue to shape the global coffee market. The export growth of Arabicas and Robustas, while impressive, is primarily a reflection of regaining previously lost ground rather than establishing a new baseline for future growth.
As the coffee industry continues to navigate these complexities, the emphasis must remain on fostering resilience and sustainability within the supply chain. Addressing the structural challenges that underlie production variability, such as climate change impacts, logistical bottlenecks, and regional disparities, will be essential for ensuring that the recent recovery can be transformed into sustained long-term growth. Only through coordinated efforts among producers, exporters, and international stakeholders can the coffee industry achieve its full potential and maintain stability in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
Differential Pricing and Market Signals: A Deepened Perspective
Changes in price differentials between various coffee groups provide insights into underlying market signals and supply dynamics. The Colombian Milds–Robustas differential expanded by 48.3% in October 2024, reaching 55.17 US cents per pound. This widening differential highlights the relative scarcity of high-quality Arabica beans as compared to Robusta, a trend that has been accentuated by the differing impacts of climatic conditions on these coffee varieties. Conversely, the narrowing differential between Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals, which contracted by 3.5%, points to a convergence in pricing between these two Arabica types, reflecting shifts in relative supply availability.
The differentials among coffee groups serve as critical indicators of relative supply-demand dynamics within the global market. For example, the 123.6% increase in the Brazilian Naturals–Robustas differential to 33.92 US cents per pound illustrates the contrasting conditions faced by these two varieties. While Robusta prices have faced downward pressure due to constrained supply, Brazilian Naturals have benefited from increased production, contributing to a more favorable pricing environment for this variety.
The Evolving Role of Export Forms in Market Composition
An important dimension of this analysis is the evolving composition of coffee exports by form. Soluble coffee exports, for instance, surged by 24.3% in September 2024 to 1.02 million bags, whereas roasted bean exports declined by 9.2% to 54,544 bags. The increase in soluble coffee exports reflects shifting consumer preferences, particularly in emerging markets where instant coffee remains favored due to its convenience and affordability. Brazil continues to lead as the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.89 million bags in the 2023/24 coffee year.
Conversely, the decline in roasted coffee exports highlights shifting dynamics within the specialty coffee segment, where the demand for freshly roasted beans is increasingly satisfied through local roasting rather than imports. This trend underlines the broader movement towards localization within the coffee industry, driven by consumer preferences for freshness, quality, and traceability. The contrasting trends between soluble and roasted coffee exports underscore the evolving nature of global coffee consumption patterns and the imperative for producers to adapt to these shifts.
Navigating a Landscape of Profound Complexity
The October 2024 Coffee Market Report provides a comprehensive overview of the dynamic and evolving landscape of the global coffee market. From fluctuations in the I-CIP and regional export variations to regulatory developments and shifts in the export composition, the data underscore the complexity of the current market environment. The divergence in export performance across regions, coupled with the growing impact of sustainability regulations, highlights the multifaceted challenges faced by coffee producers and exporters.
As the global coffee market continues to navigate these complexities, stakeholders must adopt a nuanced and strategic approach that balances the imperatives of increased production with the necessity of sustainability. The trends outlined in this analysis are a testament to the resilience of the coffee industry, yet they also illuminate the persistent vulnerabilities that require attention. Addressing these challenges will necessitate collaboration, innovation, and an unwavering commitment to ensuring that the benefits of the coffee trade are equitably distributed across the value chain.
To secure a sustainable future for the coffee industry, stakeholders must embrace a long-term perspective that prioritizes environmental stewardship, social equity, and economic resilience. The interplay between production dynamics, market forces, and regulatory shifts calls for an integrated approach that recognizes the interconnectedness of these factors. Only through such an approach can the industry navigate the challenges ahead and ensure that coffee remains a vital and accessible commodity for consumers worldwide.
Table 1: ICO daily indicator prices and futures prices (US cents/lb)
| Monthly averages | ICO composite Colombian Other Milds Brazilian Nat. Robustas New York London* | ||||||
| Nov-23 | 161.53 | 195.85 | 197.18 | 169.25 | 122.63 | 170.25 | 110.45 |
| Dec-23 | 175.73 | 210.68 | 210.76 | 185.23 | 135.47 | 186.67 | 123.91 |
| Jan-24 | 176.41 | 205.62 | 203.30 | 179.32 | 148.47 | 183.06 | 135.84 |
| Feb-24 | 182.04 | 209.53 | 208.78 | 186.74 | 153.23 | 185.37 | 142.43 |
| Mar-24 | 186.38 | 210.26 | 208.85 | 185.76 | 165.84 | 184.59 | 148.53 |
| Apr-24 | 216.89 | 241.80 | 239.73 | 218.77 | 193.65 | 217.97 | 176.04 |
| May-24 | 208.38 | 233.50 | 232.11 | 209.78 | 184.97 | 208.86 | 165.11 |
| Jun-24 | 226.83 | 250.39 | 248.39 | 229.25 | 204.30 | 226.42 | 182.82 |
| Jul-24 | 236.54 | 257.82 | 257.10 | 239.70 | 214.72 | 234.62 | 193.93 |
| Aug-24 | 238.92 | 263.76 | 261.44 | 242.19 | 214.68 | 239.61 | 198.24 |
| Sep-24 | 258.90 | 279.27 | 278.52 | 257.24 | 242.08 | 253.89 | 225.68 |
| Oct-24 | 250.56 | 277.10 | 276.82 | 255.85 | 221.93 | 250.62 | 207.11 |
| % change between Sep-24 and Oct-24 | |||||||
| -3.2% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -8.3% | -1.3% | -8.2% | |
| Volatility (%) | |||||||
| Sep-24 | 10.5% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% |
| Oct-24 | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 13.6% |
| Variation between Sep-24 and Oct-24 | |||||||
| 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | |
* Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positions
Table 2: Price differentials (US cents/lb)
| Colombian Milds Other Milds | Colombian Milds Brazilian Naturals | Colombian Milds Robustas | Other Milds Brazilian Naturals | Other Milds Robustas | Brazilian Naturals Robustas | New York* London* | |
| Oct-23 | 2.02 | 30.45 | 67.14 | 28.43 | 65.12 | 36.69 | 50.51 |
| Nov-23 | -1.33 | 26.60 | 73.22 | 27.93 | 74.55 | 46.62 | 59.81 |
| Dec-23 | -0.08 | 25.45 | 75.21 | 25.53 | 75.29 | 49.76 | 62.77 |
| Jan-24 | 2.32 | 26.29 | 57.15 | 23.98 | 54.83 | 30.85 | 47.22 |
| Feb-24 | 0.75 | 22.80 | 56.30 | 22.05 | 55.56 | 33.51 | 42.94 |
| Mar-24 | 1.41 | 24.50 | 44.42 | 23.09 | 43.01 | 19.92 | 36.06 |
| Apr-24 | 2.07 | 23.03 | 48.14 | 20.96 | 46.07 | 25.11 | 41.93 |
| May-24 | 1.39 | 23.72 | 48.53 | 22.33 | 47.14 | 24.81 | 43.74 |
| Jun-24 | 2.00 | 21.13 | 46.08 | 19.13 | 44.08 | 24.95 | 43.60 |
| Jul-24 | 0.72 | 18.12 | 43.10 | 17.40 | 42.38 | 24.98 | 40.69 |
| Aug-24 | 2.33 | 21.57 | 49.08 | 19.25 | 46.76 | 27.51 | 41.37 |
| Sep-24 | 0.75 | 22.03 | 37.20 | 21.28 | 36.45 | 15.17 | 28.21 |
| Oct-24 | 0.28 | 21.25 | 55.17 | 20.97 | 54.89 | 33.92 | 43.50 |
| % change between Sep-24 and Oct-24 | |||||||
| -62.4% | -3.5% | 48.3% | -1.5% | 50.6% | 123.6% | 54.2% | |
* Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positions
Table 3: World Supply/Demand Balance
| Coffee Year | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24* % | change |
| PRODUCTION | 169.8 | 168.4 | 170.8 | 168.0 | 168.2 | 178.0 | 5.8% |
| Arabica | 99.5 | 96.4 | 100.6 | 92.3 | 94.0 | 102.2 | 8.8% |
| Robusta | 70.3 | 72.0 | 70.3 | 75.7 | 74.2 | 75.8 | 2.1% |
| Africa | 18.5 | 18.5 | 19.2 | 19.3 | 17.9 | 20.1 | 12.1% |
| Caribbean, Central America & Mexico | 21.3 | 19.2 | 19.7 | 18.9 | 19.2 | 18.7 | –2.5% |
| South America | 81.9 | 81.1 | 83.9 | 77.6 | 81.3 | 89.3 | 9.8% |
| Asia & Oceania | 48.1 | 49.6 | 48.0 | 52.2 | 49.8 | 49.9 | 0.3% |
| CONSUMPTION | 171.2 | 168.6 | 169.9 | 176.6 | 173.1 | 177.0 | 2.2% |
| Exporting Countries | 52.5 | 52.2 | 53.1 | 54.4 | 55.1 | 56.5 | 2.6% |
| Importing Countries (Coffee Year) | 118.6 | 116.4 | 116.8 | 122.2 | 118.1 | 120.5 | 2.1% |
| Africa | 11.9 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 2.6% |
| Asia & Oceania | 39.9 | 40.1 | 42.2 | 44.2 | 44.5 | 45.7 | 2.7% |
| Caribbean, Central America & Mexico | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 2.3% |
| North America | 31.8 | 30.6 | 30.2 | 31.3 | 29.8 | 30.9 | 3.8% |
| South America | 26.3 | 26.0 | 26.4 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 28.0 | 1.6% |
| Europe | 55.5 | 54.0 | 52.2 | 55.2 | 53.1 | 53.7 | 1.1% |
| BALANCE | –1.3 | –0.2 | 0.9 | –8.6 | –4.9 | 1.0 | |
| *preliminary estimates |
Table 4: Total exports by exporting countries
| Sep-23 Sep-24 % change Year to Date Coffee Year | ||||||
| 2022/23 | 2023/24 | % change | ||||
| TOTAL | 8,619 | 10,763 | 24.9% | 122,920 | 137,273 | 11.7% |
| Arabicas | 5,554 | 7,208 | 29.8% | 73,515 | 84,678 | 15.2% |
| Colombian Milds | 912 | 1,092 | 19.7% | 11,776 | 13,195 | 12.0% |
| Other Milds | 1,792 | 2,163 | 20.7% | 24,851 | 26,200 | 5.4% |
| Brazilian Naturals | 2,850 | 3,952 | 38.7% | 36,887 | 45,283 | 22.8% |
| Robustas | 3,065 | 3,556 | 16.0% | 49,406 | 52,595 | 6.5% |
In thousand 60-kg bags – Monthly trade statistics are available upon subscription
