The Context of Social Media Accusations

Recent discourse on social media platforms has been rife with allegations that Israel’s military actions in the Gaza enclave are driven by a desire to seize an offshore gas field. These assertions have gained significant traction, with various commentators and influencers weaving a narrative that intertwines the conflict with geostrategic interests, particularly focusing on natural gas reserves.

For instance, Hacen Soli, an Egyptian dentist, garnered over 500,000 views on TikTok by claiming that Israel’s objective in Gaza is to exploit natural gas reserves. Similarly, CJ Werleman, an Australian commentator, and Richard Medhurst, a Syrian-British journalist, have propagated theories on YouTube and Instagram linking the conflict to broader Western ambitions of promoting Israeli gas exports and undermining other regional players in the gas market.

---

TABLE OF CONTENT

• Dissecting the Theory: Gaza Marine and Israeli Gas Capabilities
• Oil and Gas Wars: The Strategic Dynamics of Israel’s Gaza Marine Approval
• The Geostrategic Context and Misinterpretations
• Israel’s Strategic Move: Granting Offshore Oil Exploration Licenses to BP and ENI
• Israel’s Gas Sector: The New Chapter of International Investments
• Expanding Horizons – The Growth of Israel’s Natural Gas Exports
• Comparative Analysis: Gaza Marine Field versus Leviathan and Tamar Fields
• Recent Developments in the Conflict
• The Complexities and Implications of the Gaza Marine Gas Field Development
• Israel’s Natural Gas Exports: A Detailed Overview
• The Dynamics and Limits of Gas Diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean
• The East Mediterranean Gas Forum: Opportunities and Challenges
• The Limits of Gas Diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean

---

Dissecting the Theory: Gaza Marine and Israeli Gas Capabilities

Unveiling the Untapped Potential of Gaza Marine

The Gaza Marine, a natural gas field located off the coast of the Gaza Strip, was first discovered in 2000 by British Gas. Holding an estimated reserve of 32 billion cubic meters of natural gas, Gaza Marine represents a significant energy asset in the region. Despite its potential, the field has remained untapped for over two decades, largely due to the geopolitical complexities and security concerns of Israel.

Israel’s Stance and the Shift in 2023

The primary reason for the non-development of the Gaza Marine has been Israel’s apprehension regarding the field’s impact on regional energy dynamics. There were concerns that the revenues generated from the field could strengthen Hamas, a group that Israel considers a terrorist organization, and potentially undermine Israel’s energy independence. However, in a landmark shift in June 2023, Israel altered its longstanding position by giving preliminary consent for the development of the Gaza Marine. This decision, made in collaboration with the Palestinian Authority and an Egyptian consortium, signaled a significant change in Israel’s approach to the field.

Oil and Gas Wars: The Strategic Dynamics of Israel’s Gaza Marine Approval

In a significant policy shift, Israel granted preliminary approval in June 2023 for the development of the Gaza Marine gas field, an offshore natural gas field near the Gazan coast. This field, estimated to contain over 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, is more than sufficient to meet the energy needs of the Palestinian territories, with potential for exports. The decision to develop Gaza Marine is seen as a boost for the struggling Palestinian economy.

The Political and Economic Context

The Gaza Marine field, discovered in the late 1990s, has been a subject of prolonged political dispute and conflict, leaving it undeveloped for over two decades. One of the major concerns for Israel had been the possibility of revenues from the field benefiting Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. However, new negotiations facilitated by Egypt led to a breakthrough, indicating a shift in Israel’s stance.

The Geopolitical Implications

The approval of Gaza Marine’s development by Israel may serve multiple geopolitical purposes. Firstly, it could be seen as an effort to pacify U.S. concerns regarding Israel’s expansion of settlements, as both announcements coincided in the same week. Secondly, it might be part of a larger strategy to stabilize the political situation in Gaza, which involves different factions like Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The development could also be tied to broader regional politics, potentially linked to normalization deals with Saudi Arabia or energy trade agreements with Turkey. This move also follows the precedent set by the Lebanon maritime delimitation deal of October 2022, suggesting a trend of using economic development as a tool for fostering more peaceful relations in the region.

Economic Benefits and Challenges

The development of the Gaza Marine gas field is expected to generate significant revenues and profits for Palestine during its lifetime. This can potentially uplift the Palestinian economy and create a more stable environment in the region. However, the biggest challenge for the Israeli government will be to justify this decision to its right-wing base, especially since it opposed a similar deal with Lebanon the previous year.

The decision to develop the Gaza Marine gas field highlights the complex interplay of economic interests, geopolitical strategies, and regional stability in the Middle East. It underscores the potential of maritime resources as a means for fostering cooperation and economic development in politically tense regions. The success of this project will depend on the continuing cooperation between the involved parties and the ability to navigate the intricate political landscape of the region.

The Geostrategic Context and Misinterpretations

The Evolving Israeli Policy Towards Gaza Marine

Israel’s policy regarding the Gaza Marine gas field, situated offshore of the Gaza Strip, has undergone significant changes over the years. Initially discovered in 2000 by British Gas, the field has remained undeveloped, primarily due to Israel’s security concerns and geopolitical considerations. The apprehension stemmed from the potential of gas revenues benefiting Hamas, which Israel considers a terrorist organization.

Misinterpretations in the Broader Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

The recent shift in Israel’s stance, including the preliminary consent for Gaza Marine’s development, has been subject to various misinterpretations, especially in the context of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some analysts and social media commentators speculate that Israel’s military actions in Gaza are motivated by a desire to control the gas field. However, this perspective overlooks the broader context of Israel’s energy sector and its current capabilities.

Israel’s Strategic Move: Granting Offshore Oil Exploration Licenses to BP and ENI

On October 29 of the previous year, Israel’s energy sector marked a significant milestone when its Energy Ministry announced the awarding of two licenses for oil exploration. British Petroleum (BP) and the Italian national oil company, ENI, emerged as the recipients of these licenses. This decision by the Israeli government represents a strategic step in strengthening its international relations and underscores the confidence of global industry giants in Israel’s energy sector.

Implications of the Decision

• Boosting International Confidence: The involvement of BP and ENI, both major players in the global oil industry, signals a vote of confidence in Israel’s potential as a viable location for energy exploration. This move is expected to attract further foreign investment into the country’s energy sector.
• Geopolitical Significance: Awarding these licenses to prominent international companies like BP and ENI has broader geopolitical implications. It signifies Israel’s intent to strengthen ties with European countries and diversify its energy partnerships.
• Potential for Regional Energy Hub: By engaging with multinational energy corporations, Israel is positioning itself as a potential regional hub for energy exploration and production. This could have far-reaching effects on its economic and strategic standing in the region.

Background and Context

• Israel’s Energy Landscape: Israel’s energy sector has primarily been known for its significant natural gas discoveries, particularly the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields. The move to expand into oil exploration indicates a diversification of Israel’s energy portfolio.
• Previous Exploration Efforts: Israel has periodically issued exploration licenses as part of its strategy to exploit potential hydrocarbon reserves. The involvement of global oil giants marks a new phase in these efforts, potentially leading to more extensive exploration and production activities.

Reactions and Responses

• Industry Perspective: The energy industry has viewed this development positively, seeing it as an opportunity to explore new territories and expand global operations.
• Environmental Concerns: Concurrently, there might be environmental concerns related to offshore oil exploration. It necessitates stringent environmental safeguards and regulatory oversight to mitigate potential ecological impacts.
• Regional Dynamics: The decision could influence Israel’s relations with neighboring countries, especially those with vested interests in the Mediterranean region’s energy resources.

The granting of exploration licenses to BP and ENI is a significant development in Israel’s energy sector, with implications that extend beyond mere economic interests. It symbolizes a strategic alignment with major global players in the oil industry and reflects Israel’s growing role in the regional energy landscape. As exploration activities commence, the impact of this decision on Israel’s economy, international relations, and environmental policies will be closely monitored.

The Realities of Israel’s Energy Sector

Israel’s energy sector has undergone a significant transformation over the past two decades, evolving from a net importer of fossil fuels to a self-sufficient and exporter of natural gas. This transition has been primarily driven by the development of its offshore gas resources, particularly the Tamar and Leviathan fields.

Israel’s Gas Sector: The New Chapter of International Investments

Transformative Investments in Israel’s Gas Sector

The landscape of Israel’s gas sector has undergone a significant transformation, especially with the heightened interest from international energy companies. This marks a departure from the past where the sector was primarily dominated by local and smaller companies. The change in the sector’s dynamics is attributed to the growing interest and investment from major global players, overcoming previous hesitations due to security risks and the complex geopolitical situation.

Chevron’s Entry and Its Impact

• Chevron’s Acquisition of Noble Energy: In 2020, a major shift occurred when the American energy giant Chevron entered the Israeli market through its acquisition of Noble Energy, a smaller Houston-based company. This acquisition was a game-changer for Israel’s gas sector. Noble Energy, along with its partners including what is now known as NewMed Energy, played a crucial role in discovering Israel’s giant gas fields – Tamar in 2009 and Leviathan in 2010. Following this, Chevron, along with its partners, came to control virtually all of Israel’s gas reserves and production.

Mubadala Energy’s Involvement

• Mubadala Energy’s Stake in Tamar Field: In March 2021, Mubadala Energy, a subsidiary of Mubadala Investment Company owned by the government of Abu Dhabi, acquired a 22 percent stake in the Tamar field. This deal, worth over $1 billion, marked the largest investment between the United Arab Emirates and Israel at the time. This investment by Mubadala was significant, not just economically, but also politically, signaling a strengthening of ties between Israel and the UAE.

Israel’s Latest Licensing Round and Future Prospects

• New Bidders in Licensing Round: In December 2022, Israel launched a new licensing round for oil and gas exploration. Notably, five out of the nine companies that bid were new to the Israeli market, including BP and the Azeri national oil company SOCAR.
• BP and ADNOC’s Interest in NewMed Energy: Further solidifying international interest, BP and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) made an offer in March to buy a 50 percent stake in NewMed Energy.

Challenges and Strategic Moves

• Israel’s Export Challenges: Israel faces challenges in penetrating Asian and European markets, necessitating the development of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production capabilities. The Eastern Mediterranean pipeline project (EastMed), aimed at delivering Israeli gas to European markets, is still in development and faces various political and economic challenges.
• Securing International Investments: The involvement of international companies like Chevron and Mubadala Energy has boosted Israel’s prospects of securing further lucrative deals and investments in its gas sector.

Transition from Coal to Natural Gas and Renewables

The Israeli Ministry of Energy aims to primarily replace coal with natural gas by 2030, targeting a mix of 70% natural gas and 30% renewable energy sources. This shift aligns with Israel’s broader environmental goals, including the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In 2022, coal-generated power accounted for only 21.8% of Israel’s power, a significant decrease from 61% in 2012.

Renewable Energy Prospects

Despite having substantial solar power potential, Israel has faced challenges in meeting its renewable energy targets. In 2022, only 10.1% of its electricity came from renewable sources. The government has set ambitious targets to increase renewable energy usage, aiming for 30% of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030, with solar accounting for approximately 90% of this.

Export and International Collaboration

Israel’s natural gas exports have been growing, with significant increases in exports to Egypt and Jordan. This not only diversifies Israel’s economy but also strengthens regional ties. Plans are underway to further boost these exports, including increasing gas exports from the Tamar field to Egypt by 60% from 2026.

Challenges and Future Outlook

While Israel’s energy sector has made significant strides, it faces challenges, including fluctuating global natural gas prices and the need to further develop its renewable energy capacity. The government’s commitment to reducing reliance on fossil fuels and increasing the use of cleaner energy sources signifies a pivotal shift in Israel’s energy strategy, with long-term implications for its economy and environmental footprint.

The energy landscape in Israel thus presents a complex picture of transition, balancing the vast potential of natural gas resources with the growing imperative of renewable energy development and environmental sustainability.

Expanding Horizons – The Growth of Israel’s Natural Gas Exports

Israel’s Increasing Natural Gas Exports to Egypt and Jordan

Israel’s natural gas exports have shown a remarkable increase, particularly to neighboring countries Egypt and Jordan. This growth is not just a reflection of Israel’s burgeoning energy sector but also signifies the strengthening of regional ties and economic collaboration.

Surge in Exports

In 2022, Israeli energy companies produced 21.29 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, of which a significant portion, 9.21 bcm, was exported to Egypt and Jordan. This export figure represents a substantial increase from previous years. Specifically, exports to Egypt saw a 37% jump from the previous year, reaching 5.81 bcm, while exports to Jordan grew by 16.8%, amounting to 3.4 bcm.

Strategic Expansion Plans

Looking ahead, Israel plans to further boost its natural gas exports, particularly to Egypt. The expansion includes an additional 38.7 bcm of natural gas exports to Egypt over an 11-year period, starting from 2026. This move is expected to increase Israel’s state revenue and strengthen diplomatic relations between Israel and Egypt.

Tamar Field – A Key Contributor

The Tamar field, a significant offshore natural gas field, plays a vital role in this export growth. It has been announced that production from Tamar will increase by 60%, or 6 bcm annually, from 2026. This decision aligns with Egypt’s growing demand for natural gas, which faces a decline in its own production and rising energy needs due to population growth and climate-induced heatwaves.

Domestic Consumption and Energy Security

While focusing on exports, Israel has also ensured that its domestic natural gas supply remains secure. A portion of the additional natural gas produced from the Tamar field, about one-third, will be allocated for local consumption. The increase in domestic consumption, predominantly in the electricity sector, rose by 3% in 2022, reaching 12.71 bcm.

Economic and Diplomatic Implications

Israel’s move to expand natural gas exports underlines its strategic positioning as a significant energy player in the region. The country’s energy ministry views this step as not only a means to boost state revenue but also to cement stronger diplomatic ties with Egypt. This development is critical, especially considering the historical complexities of Israel-Egypt relations.

Challenges and Public Concerns

Despite the economic benefits, the decision to increase exports has sparked debates and concerns among Israeli public advocacy groups. These groups warn of potential gas shortages due to rising domestic demand and environmental impacts from increased offshore activities.

Israel’s expanding natural gas exports mark a significant phase in its energy sector’s growth. The increase in exports to Egypt and Jordan not only showcases Israel’s energy potential but also reflects a broader trend of regional cooperation and economic interdependence. As Israel navigates these developments, balancing domestic energy security with export ambitions remains a key challenge.

Comparative Analysis: Gaza Marine Field versus Leviathan and Tamar Fields

The comparison between the Gaza Marine field and Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar gas fields presents a striking contrast in terms of their potential and impact on the respective regions’ energy strategies.

The Gaza Marine Field

• Estimated Reserves: The Gaza Marine field, discovered off the coast of the Gaza Strip, is estimated to hold about 32 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
• Economic Significance: While this reserve is substantial, its development has been hindered by geopolitical complexities. For the Palestinian territories, the Gaza Marine field represents a significant economic opportunity, potentially providing energy independence and economic benefits.
• Development Status: The field has remained underdeveloped due to a variety of factors, including Israeli security concerns and political instability in the region.

The Leviathan and Tamar Fields

• Leviathan Field:
  • Estimated Reserves: The Leviathan field, discovered in 2010, is estimated to contain 623 billion cubic meters of gas.
  • Role in Energy Strategy: This field plays a pivotal role in Israel’s energy strategy, serving both domestic needs and as a significant source for exports.
• Tamar Field:
  • Estimated Reserves: Discovered in 2009, the Tamar field holds about 200 billion cubic meters of gas.
  • Domestic Impact: It has been crucial in reducing Israel’s reliance on coal and has been a major source of domestic gas supply since it began production.

Comparative Analysis

• Scale of Reserves: The reserves in the Leviathan and Tamar fields far exceed those of the Gaza Marine field. Leviathan alone is almost twenty times larger than Gaza Marine, and Tamar about six times larger.
• Impact on Regional Energy Dynamics: The development of Leviathan and Tamar has transformed Israel into a significant energy exporter in the region, a status that the Gaza Marine field does not currently match.
• Strategic Focus: Israel’s energy strategy is heavily focused on leveraging the Leviathan and Tamar fields to meet growing domestic energy needs and to expand its role in the regional energy market. In contrast, the Gaza Marine field, while important, is relatively minor in the context of the region’s broader energy dynamics.
• Geopolitical Implications: The development of these fields also carries different geopolitical implications. The Leviathan and Tamar fields bolster Israel’s energy independence and economic strength, while the Gaza Marine field’s development is tied to the complex political situation between Israel and the Palestinian territories.

Field	Estimated Reserves (Billion Cubic Meters)	Significance	Production Status	Role in Regional Energy Dynamics
Gaza Marine	32	Economic opportunity for Palestinian territories, but underdeveloped due to geopolitical complexities.	Underdeveloped	Minor in the context of broader regional energy dynamics.
Leviathan	623	Pivotal in Israel’s energy strategy, significant source for exports.	Fully Operational	Transformed Israel into a significant energy exporter in the region.
Tamar	200	Crucial in reducing Israel’s reliance on coal, major domestic supply source.	Fully Operational	Major contributor to Israel’s domestic energy needs.

This table provides a concise overview of each field’s reserves, significance, production status, and their respective roles in the regional energy dynamics.

In summary, the Leviathan and Tamar fields’ vast reserves and strategic importance in Israel’s energy sector overshadow the potential of the Gaza Marine field. While the Gaza Marine field remains a critical resource for the Palestinian territories, its impact is relatively limited in the context of the broader regional energy landscape.

Challenges and Prospects

Despite these developments, Israel’s energy sector faces challenges, including the global decrease in natural gas prices and the evolving landscape of renewable energy technologies. While natural gas currently plays a central role in Israel’s energy mix, the long-term strategy includes a significant shift towards renewable energy sources.

Israel’s energy sector, buoyed by the Leviathan and Tamar fields, is a critical component of its economic and geopolitical strategy. The substantial natural gas reserves from these fields not only ensure domestic energy security but also position Israel as a key energy exporter in the region. As the country navigates global energy market dynamics and transitions towards cleaner energy sources, these gas fields will continue to be a cornerstone of Israel’s energy landscape.

Recent Developments in the Conflict

As of January 2024, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has seen a series of significant events. The International Court of Justice has confirmed that it will hold public hearings on South Africa’s case against Israel. Furthermore, the conflict has resulted in a large number of displaced people and continued military actions in various regions, including Gaza and the West Bank. The dynamics of the conflict remain complex, with various factors at play beyond the issue of natural gas reserves.

The theory suggesting that Israel’s primary interest in the Gaza Strip is driven by a desire to control the Gaza Marine gas field seems to be at odds with the broader context of Israel’s energy sector. A focused analysis reveals why this perspective may not align with the current realities of Israel’s energy strategy.

In light of the considerable size and strategic importance of the Leviathan and Tamar fields, Israel’s energy strategy appears to be focused on maximizing these resources to meet domestic demand and to expand its role as a regional energy exporter. The development of the Gaza Marine field, while symbolically and economically important for the Palestinian territories, does not significantly alter Israel’s overall energy landscape. The complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Israel’s energy strategy require an understanding that goes beyond a single economic motive, encompassing various political, historical, and security factors.

The Complexities and Implications of the Gaza Marine Gas Field Development

In a significant development in the Middle East’s energy sector, the Palestinian Authority has moved towards the development of the Gaza Marine gas field, an offshore reserve with substantial economic potential. Estimated to contain 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas, the Gaza Marine field, discovered in the late 1990s, has been at the center of a complex geopolitical situation for over two decades. With Israel’s conditional approval and involvement of Egypt in recent negotiations, the potential $2.4 billion in royalties and profits from this field for Palestine during its lifetime has raised questions about the broader implications, particularly concerning Hamas’s role in the Gaza Strip.

Historical Context and Development Challenges

The development of the Gaza Marine gas field has been fraught with political and corporate disagreements. Initially, Israeli President Ehud Barak’s decision to allow the Palestinian Authority (PA) to award the license was based on the condition that surplus fuel from Gaza Marine would be supplied to Israel. However, disagreements on pricing and legal challenges from Israeli consortiums stalled progress. The election of Hamas in 2007 and subsequent conflicts further complicated the situation, leading to a hiatus in development efforts.

The Role of Egypt and New Negotiations

Recent breakthroughs in negotiations, facilitated by Egypt, signal a shift in Israel’s stance on the field’s development. Most of the gas from this project is expected to be sold to Egypt’s energy sector, with possibilities of exporting to Europe as well. However, the situation remains complex due to the political dynamics in Gaza, where Hamas, a group considered a terrorist organization by several countries, maintains control.

The Economic and Political Implications

The development of Gaza Marine is seen as a significant economic opportunity for the Palestinian territories. However, concerns have been raised about how the generated revenues might be utilized, especially given Hamas’s governance in Gaza. While the official stance is that the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank will receive the gas revenue, the reality of Hamas potentially benefiting from these funds cannot be ignored.

Israel’s Strategic Considerations

Israel’s approval of the Gaza Marine development could be seen as a multifaceted strategic decision. It might serve to ease US discontent over Israel’s settlement expansion or be part of a larger effort to stabilize the political situation in Gaza. Additionally, regional incentives, such as potential normalization deals with Saudi Arabia or energy trade agreements with Turkey, could have influenced Israel’s decision.

Geopolitical Significance and Future Prospects

The Gaza Marine deal exemplifies the use of economic development as a tool for fostering more peaceful relations in the region. Similar to the maritime deal between Israel and Lebanon in 2022, this agreement involves indirect negotiations with hostile non-state actors and third-party countries acting as mediators. The development of Gaza Marine could potentially provide economic relief to Gaza and contribute to regional stability. However, the success of this project is contingent on navigating the complex political landscape and ensuring that the revenues are used for constructive purposes rather than funding hostile activities.

The development of the Gaza Marine gas field represents a critical juncture in Middle Eastern geopolitics, intertwining economic potential with the intricate tapestry of regional politics. While the project carries significant economic promise for the Palestinian territories, the involvement of Hamas in the Gaza Strip adds a layer of complexity, raising concerns about the use of the generated revenues. The situation underscores the need for a balanced approach that secures economic benefits while addressing security concerns.

Israel’s Natural Gas Exports: A Detailed Overview

Israel’s energy sector, particularly its natural gas exports, has seen significant developments in recent years, positioning the nation as a key player in the regional energy market.

Key Export Destinations

• Egypt: Israel has established a crucial gas export relationship with Egypt. A notable aspect of this relationship is the 2018 deal signed between Israel and Egypt, involving Israeli company Delek Drilling and its US partner, Noble Energy. This deal is pivotal in the context of regional energy dynamics, as it not only bolsters economic ties between Israel and Egypt but also reinforces Egypt’s ambition to become a regional energy hub.
• Jordan: Jordan is another significant recipient of Israeli natural gas. The export agreement with Jordan, which began around 2017, marked a major economic and diplomatic milestone. This deal is instrumental in providing Jordan with a stable and economical energy source, thereby enhancing its energy security.
• European Union: Israel has been actively pursuing opportunities to export its natural gas to the European market. The EU-Israel natural gas export deal, signed in Cairo in 2022, is a landmark agreement that recognizes the role of natural gas in the energy economy of EU countries. This deal is particularly relevant in the context of the EU’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas supplies.

Export Volumes and Infrastructure

• In 2022, Israeli energy companies produced 21.29 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, out of which 9.21 bcm was exported, primarily to Egypt and Jordan. The total gas reserves were estimated at 1,087 bcm, indicating a robust capacity for future exports.
• The Israeli gas exported to the EU will be transported via a pipeline to Egypt’s LNG terminal on the Mediterranean before being shipped to European shores. This infrastructure plays a crucial role in facilitating the export process and maximizing the potential of the gas fields.

Expansion and Future Plans

• Israel is looking to double its gas production in the coming years, eyeing new markets, including Europe, which is in search of new energy sources.
• The Leviathan field, discovered in 2010, is the largest natural gas reservoir in the Mediterranean, highlighting the scale of Israel’s natural gas resources.
• Three reservoirs, namely Tamar, Leviathan, and Karish, are currently operational, with the Olympus field discovered in 2022, further bolstering Israel’s gas reserves.

Geopolitical and Economic Implications

• These developments in Israel’s natural gas exports have considerable economic benefits, bringing in billions of dollars in revenue to the state and contributing to lower electricity prices domestically.
• The expansion of Israel’s natural gas exports also carries significant geopolitical weight, impacting regional alignments and diplomatic relations.

In summary, Israel’s natural gas exports to Egypt, Jordan, and potentially the EU, mark a significant phase in its energy sector’s growth. These exports not only showcase Israel’s energy potential but also reflect a broader trend of regional cooperation and economic interdependence. As Israel navigates these developments, balancing domestic energy security with export ambitions remains a key strategic focus.

Israel’s Expanding Gas Production and Export Strategy

Israel’s strategy in the natural gas sector has been expansive. The country aims to double its gas output in the coming years, looking to tap into new markets, particularly in Europe. This ambition is supported by recent discoveries, such as the Olympus reservoir, and the expansion of exploration licenses in the Leviathan field. Such developments further shift Israel’s focus away from the relatively smaller Gaza Marine.

Geopolitical Implications and Misconceptions

The comparative analysis of Israel’s gas fields versus Gaza Marine sheds light on the improbability of the theory that Israel’s interest in Gaza is driven by gas greed. The sheer scale of Israel’s existing and potential gas resources makes the Gaza Marine field a minor player in the country’s overall energy strategy. This context is crucial in understanding the dynamics at play in the region, where geopolitical and security considerations often intertwine with economic interests.

Understanding Israel’s Energy Strategy

In conclusion, while Gaza Marine holds potential as a natural gas source, it remains marginal when compared to Israel’s larger, more developed fields. Israel’s focus on expanding its gas production and exploring new markets underscores a strategic orientation towards optimizing its existing sizable reserves. Therefore, it is essential to view Israel’s actions and policies in the context of its broader energy strategy and regional geopolitical considerations, rather than through the narrow lens of the Gaza Marine field.

The Real Triggers of the Conflict

While the natural gas narrative fits neatly into a geostrategic framework, it oversimplifies the multifaceted nature of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The recent escalation in Gaza, which began following Hamas’ attack on October 7, underscores the complex dynamics at play. Israel’s response, extending beyond mere retribution, indicates a strategic objective to neutralize Hamas’ capacity for aggression. This objective aligns more with immediate security concerns rather than long-term economic strategies related to natural gas.

The Dynamics and Limits of Gas Diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean

Transforming the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Market

Over the past decade, significant gas discoveries have revolutionized the energy landscape in the Eastern Mediterranean. Key developments like the discovery of the Tamar gas field in 2009 and the larger Leviathan field in 2010 enabled Israel to not only become self-sufficient in natural gas but also emerge as a net gas exporter. This shift allowed Israel to reduce its reliance on gas supplies from Egypt, which were transported via the Sinai Peninsula, often marred by political instability.

The Cypriot Aphrodite Field and Regional Implications

• Aphrodite Gas Field: Discovered by Noble Energy in 2011 off the coast of Cyprus, the Aphrodite field, with reserves estimated between 3.6 and 6.0 trillion cubic feet, represents a significant medium-sized gas reserve. However, its production has been delayed, mainly due to the limited Cypriot market and the absence of a direct pipeline to Europe.
• Export Considerations: Cyprus is exploring options to export its gas, including a potential pipeline to Egypt and using liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals for broader distribution.

Challenges for Leviathan and Aphrodite

Both the Leviathan and Aphrodite fields have encountered similar challenges: lack of export infrastructure and committed long-term buyers. Israel’s aspiration to export gas to Europe through the projected EastMed pipeline, extending 1,900 km to Greece, reflects both geostrategic and commercial interests. However, the feasibility of this pipeline, initially supported by the EU, remains uncertain.

The Discovery of Zohr: A Game Changer

• Zohr Gas Field: In 2015, Italy’s ENI corporation discovered the Zohr field in Egyptian waters. With an estimated reserve of around 30 trillion cubic feet, Zohr surpassed Leviathan, positioning Egypt as the central player for gas export in the Eastern Mediterranean.
• Egypt’s Role: Egypt’s existing LNG infrastructure, including the Damietta and Idku terminals, enhances its capacity to export both Cypriot and Israeli gas. The large domestic market in Egypt also promises to absorb a significant portion of its gas production, primarily from Zohr.

Regional Foreign Relations and Gas Diplomacy

The discovery of gas reserves has played a crucial role in shaping foreign relations in the Eastern Mediterranean. While these discoveries have the potential to encourage regional integration, they have also sparked competition and heightened tensions in some cases. Gas diplomacy has been less transformative than some actors, such as the U.S., might have hoped, but it remains a significant factor in regional politics.

Mapping Regional Politics and Natural Gas Landscape

• Regional Actors and Relationships: The report examines the various actors in the Eastern Mediterranean, categorizing them based on their existing peace agreements, ongoing conflicts, or regional ambitions. The success of gas agreements largely depends on these underlying political relationships.
• Israel’s Agreements with Jordan and Egypt: Israel’s gas agreements with Jordan and Egypt stand out as examples of successful economic cooperation facilitated by shared energy interests. However, these agreements have not led to significant warming of relations, particularly due to public opposition in both Jordan and Egypt.
• Challenges in Cyprus and Lebanon: The gas reserves have intensified existing disputes, as seen in Cyprus, where the Aphrodite discovery has exacerbated tensions over resource rights. In Lebanon, the maritime delimitation deal with Israel, influenced by potential gas reserves, temporarily eased tensions but has done little to address the broader Lebanese political crisis or the hostility between Israel and Hezbollah.
• Turkey’s Regional Ambitions: Turkey’s approach to the Eastern Mediterranean gas reserves, especially its backing of Turkish Cypriot claims and its deal with Libya, illustrates its assertive foreign policy and regional aspirations.

The Eastern Mediterranean’s natural gas landscape presents a complex interplay of economic opportunities and political challenges. While the discoveries offer significant economic potential, their role in transforming regional politics and resolving conflicts remains limited. Future strategies in the region must balance economic interests with realistic assessments of political dynamics and market demands.

The East Mediterranean Gas Forum: Opportunities and Challenges

The establishment of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) marks a significant development in the region’s energy diplomacy. Launched in 2020 with the backing of the European Union (EU), the EMGF includes Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, Italy, and France. This initiative aims to enhance economic cooperation and regional integration through shared gas reserves. The inclusion of various regional and global actors underscores the EMGF’s potential as a platform for collaboration in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Türkiye’s Exclusion and Its Implications

Türkiye’s absence from the EMGF is a critical aspect of the forum’s dynamics. Perceived by many in the region as a destabilizing force, Türkiye’s exclusion has been used strategically by forum members to facilitate discussions without its influence. European diplomats have expressed reservations about Türkiye’s approach to regional gas matters, arguing that its involvement could prolong negotiations unnecessarily. However, this exclusionary stance has also entrenched regional divisions and heightened tensions, particularly with Türkiye feeling isolated and further politicizing the gas reserves.

Other Notable Absences and Their Impact

Lebanon and Palestine are other notable absentees from the EMGF. Lebanon’s refusal to join due to Israel’s membership underscores the persistent political divisions in the region. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority’s participation in the forum does not translate into control over the Gaza Strip’s gas reserves, which are under Hamas’s administration. These absences highlight the forum’s limitations in achieving comprehensive regional integration.

Incremental Steps Toward Inclusivity

Despite the challenges, the EMGF presents opportunities for incremental progress toward regional cooperation. The forum’s current focus on gas reserves could expand to encompass broader energy, economic, and security issues. To realize its potential as a platform for regional cooperation, the EMGF will need to embrace a more inclusive approach, potentially accommodating Türkiye and addressing the sovereignty issues around Cyprus. The EU’s sponsorship of an Eastern Mediterranean gas conference could serve as a preliminary step towards this goal.

The EMGF represents a significant step in regional energy diplomacy, offering a platform for economic cooperation and political dialogue. However, its success hinges on its ability to overcome existing regional divisions and incorporate broader stakeholder involvement. By expanding its membership and scope, the EMGF can play a pivotal role in harnessing the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas reserves for peace, security, and regional integration. The forum’s evolution in the coming years will be critical in determining its impact on the region’s political and economic landscape.

The Limits of Gas Diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean

The concept of “gas diplomacy” in the Eastern Mediterranean region, particularly involving the U.S., the EU, and regional players, hinges on leveraging natural gas reserves as a tool for regional conflict resolution and economic cooperation. However, while there have been some bilateral successes, the broader impact of gas diplomacy on geopolitical relations remains limited and complex.

Managing Expectations about Gas Diplomacy

• Concept and Historical Context: Gas diplomacy emerged as a strategy during President Barack Obama’s administration and saw renewed interest under President Joe Biden. It was seen as a way to foster cooperation among regional players through shared energy interests.
• Mixed Results: The U.S. theory of using energy as a proxy for broader cooperation had mixed results. While it facilitated economic cooperation, as seen in bilateral deals between Israel and Jordan, and Israel and Egypt, it has not yet achieved major geopolitical breakthroughs.
• Recognition of Limitations: The limitations of gas diplomacy are increasingly recognized. Gas agreements, while useful, cannot alone overcome deep-rooted distrust and conflicts.

Managing Expectations about European Demand

• European Demand for Eastern Mediterranean Gas: The proximity of the Eastern Mediterranean gas reserves to Europe initially sparked enthusiasm. However, the assumption that European demand would underpin the region’s gas production is being reassessed.
• EU’s Energy Strategy Post-Ukraine Conflict: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU aims to reduce dependency on Russian gas by diversifying its energy sources, but Eastern Mediterranean gas is just one of many options being considered.

Pipeline or Pipedream?

• EastMed Pipeline Project: The EastMed pipeline, planned to transport gas from the region to Europe, faces economic and political challenges. The U.S. has suggested it might be more suited for electricity rather than gas, and the EU’s green agenda and decarbonization goals further complicate its viability.
• Commercial and Political Realities: The commercial and political realities surrounding the EastMed pipeline question its feasibility, given the EU’s shift towards renewable energy and the complexity of regional geopolitical dynamics.

Rethinking Gas Diplomacy

• Revisiting Market Assumptions: Stakeholders in the Eastern Mediterranean need to rethink the potential markets for their gas, with regional markets possibly being more viable than European ones.
• EU’s Role and Regional Integration: The EU could play a pivotal role in encouraging regional integration and stability, focusing on renewable energy sources alongside gas diplomacy.
• Addressing Political Conflicts: While gas reserves offer economic opportunities, political conflicts in the region, such as those involving Cyprus, Lebanon, and Israel, underscore the need for direct political solutions alongside economic cooperation.

The Eastern Mediterranean gas reserves have not yet transformed the region’s political landscape as initially hoped. While they provide economic opportunities and have fostered some level of cooperation, the complexities of regional conflicts and the evolving global energy market require a more nuanced approach to gas diplomacy. It remains crucial for regional players and international stakeholders to align economic interests with a realistic assessment of political realities and market demands.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the allure of natural resources, especially in a region as geopolitically charged as the Middle East, is undeniable, the evidence suggests that the current conflict in Gaza is not primarily about gas. The Israeli-Hamas war, like many conflicts in the region, is rooted in a complex tapestry of historical, political, and security issues. Reducing it to a scramble for natural resources not only simplifies these complexities but also overlooks the immediate triggers and underlying causes of the conflict.