Navigating the Tightrope: The Philippines, Taiwan, and China’s Red Line


In the complex tapestry of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region, the recent statements by officials from China and the Philippines underscore the delicate balance of power, territorial claims, and diplomatic ties that define the area. A notable instance of this intricate interplay was observed when Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin articulated a stark warning to the Philippines on Thursday, highlighting that Taiwan represents a non-negotiable “red line” for China. This cautionary stance came in response to Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro’s advocacy for bolstering the military presence on Mavulis Island, which is strategically positioned between the Batanes archipelago and Taiwan.

Wang Wenbin’s remarks were unequivocal: “The Taiwan issue is the main one of China’s core interests and a ‘red line’ that cannot be crossed. The relevant [persons] in the Philippines should have a clear understanding of this, act with caution, and not play with fire on the Taiwan issue to avoid being used and harmed.” This statement reflects China’s longstanding position on Taiwan, viewing it as an inalienable part of its territory, a stance that has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy and national identity.

The call from the Philippine Defense Secretary, made on Wednesday, to enhance the country’s military footprint on its northernmost island is not an isolated move but part of a broader strategy to strengthen national security and regional stability. This approach has been particularly emphasized since January, when Secretary Teodoro announced intentions to escalate military cooperation with the United States and its allies in light of China’s perceived “aggressive” behavior. This military build-up is posited as a means to make a “effective contribution to regional stability,amidst growing tensions in the South China Sea, a region fraught with territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries.

The strategic significance of the South China Sea cannot be overstated, serving as a vital maritime corridor that facilitates a substantial portion of global trade. It’s a region where sovereignty claims over several islands and maritime features have been a source of contention between China and the Philippines, among others. The discord has been palpable since October 4, 2023, when Philippine vessels successfully completed a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal, in defiance of the Chinese coast guard’s attempts to obstruct them. Such incidents have only served to heighten the tensions, underscoring the precarious nature of the bilateral relationship.

Despite these challenges, there have been efforts to foster dialogue and cooperation. In January, the foreign ministers of China and the Philippines concurred on enhancing cooperation and resolving incidents in the South China Sea amicably to mitigate regional tensions. This agreement signifies a mutual recognition of the benefits of diplomacy and peaceful negotiation, even as both nations navigate their respective national interests and regional commitments.

China’s message to the Philippines, as articulated by Wang Wenbin, serves as a reminder of the high stakes involved in the Taiwan issue and the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region. The emphasis on maintaining friendly exchanges as the cornerstone of the relationship between the two countries highlights the potential for constructive engagement, even amidst divergent interests and strategic calculations.

As the Philippines contemplates its next moves, the call to not “play with fire” on the Taiwan issue is a poignant reminder of the complex interdependencies and the fine line between sovereignty, security, and regional stability. How Manila navigates this tightrope, balancing its own strategic interests with those of its neighbors and allies, will be crucial in shaping the future dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region.

Philippine Military Bolsters Defenses in Luzon Strait Amid Rising Tensions with China

In the midst of China’s assertive stance in the South China Sea, the Philippines has announced plans to enhance its defense capabilities in the strategically vital Luzon Strait, a move that could have significant implications for regional security dynamics.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro recently visited the Batanes Islands, situated within the Luzon Strait, emphasizing the region’s critical role in the nation’s northern defense perimeter. Teodoro underscored the necessity of bolstering the islands’ garrison, signaling a pivotal shift in the Philippines’ defense strategy, according to statements from the Philippine Navy.

The Luzon Strait serves as a crucial chokepoint connecting the South China Sea with the Philippine Sea, strategically significant for both military and economic reasons. China frequently utilizes this passage to deploy naval assets into the Pacific Ocean, crucial for potential operations related to the Taiwan Strait or broader regional security concerns. Conversely, the strait also holds strategic importance for American and allied forces seeking access to the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

Teodoro’s announcement comes amid escalating tensions between Manila and Beijing over maritime territorial disputes. Despite a 2016 arbitral court ruling favoring the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea, China continues to assert control over vast portions of the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Chinese forces routinely harass Philippine personnel and fishermen in the Spratly Islands, while also militarizing reefs in the region, transforming them into strategic military installations equipped with air defenses and runways.

In January, Teodoro reaffirmed the Philippines’ commitment to ensuring unhindered access for Filipino fishermen in the South China Sea, despite persistent Chinese pressure. He articulated a shift towards a defense concept aimed at safeguarding Philippine resources and territorial integrity.

Meanwhile, China appears to be adopting a more confrontational stance. A senior researcher at a Chinese think tank, Wu Shicun, advocated for assertive action to defend China’s maritime claims. In a piece published in the state-owned Global Times, Wu emphasized the need for China to demonstrate its resolve and readiness to respond to any challenges to its claims in the South China Sea.

Wu’s remarks underscore China’s growing assertiveness in the region, signaling the potential for further escalation in maritime tensions. The Philippine government’s decision to reinforce its defenses in the Luzon Strait reflects a proactive response to evolving security challenges, as Manila seeks to assert its sovereignty and protect its interests in the face of mounting pressure from Beijing.

Reassessing Taiwan: Beyond the Western Narrative of Imperial Contest

In the vast expanse of geopolitical discourse, Taiwan is often reduced to a mere pawn in the grand strategy games of superpowers, portrayed predominantly through the lens of Western ideological battles against the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This oversimplification distorts the island’s complex history and its deep-rooted connections with the Chinese mainland, which predate modern imperialistic endeavors by centuries. Taiwan, merely a hundred miles off China’s southeastern coast, has been intertwined with the mainland through migration, trade, language, and culture long before it became a target for European and Japanese colonial ambitions.

The strategic value of Taiwan was exploited first by colonial powers and then by the United States, which has sought to leverage Taiwan in its ideological and military confrontation with China. This confrontation escalated significantly following the 1949 establishment of the PRC, with the U.S. supporting the remnants of the Chiang Kai-shek government as a bastion of “Free China”. The intervention of the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait in 1950, aimed at preventing the unification of China under socialist governance, marks a critical point in Taiwan’s post-war history, cementing its role in the broader U.S. strategy to contain socialist expansion.

This history of militarization and ideological manipulation has been sustained and intensified over the past fifteen years, amid China’s rise as a global power and the corresponding shift in U.S. foreign policy towards Asia. Despite the formal adherence to a “one-China policy,” successive U.S. administrations have flouted the principle of peaceful reunification, engaging in a campaign of hybrid warfare that includes arms sales to Taiwan, military exercises, and a narrative that frames Taiwan as a frontline in the so-called new Cold War against China.

The narrative surrounding Taiwan’s role in this geopolitical chess game often glosses over the island’s rich historical tapestry, which includes periods of Japanese colonial rule and the martial law era under the Kuomintang (KMT). Efforts to push for Taiwan’s independence frequently overlook the complex legacy of these periods, including the systematic suppression of pro-unification voices and the revision of Japanese colonial history to foster a distinct Taiwanese identity separate from the mainland’s Han Chinese majority.

The push for Taiwan independence, while cloaked in the rhetoric of democracy and self-determination, serves the strategic interests of Western imperialism, echoing historical patterns of colonization for economic and military advantage. Taiwan’s significance as a military outpost and its role in the global semiconductor industry underscore its importance in U.S. efforts to contain China’s economic and military rise. This approach not only perpetuates a cycle of militarization and conflict but also undermines the potential for peaceful resolution and reunification based on mutual respect and historical understanding.

The portrayal of cross-strait relations as a simple dichotomy between democracy and authoritarianism, or as an external matter subject to international intervention, ignores the nuanced realities of Taiwan’s history and its integral connection to the broader narrative of Chinese sovereignty and self-determination. The predominance of Han Chinese identity on the island, alongside the experiences of its indigenous peoples and the diverse political landscapes that have emerged over centuries, highlights the complexity of defining Taiwan’s place within the Chinese nation and the global community.

As debates over Taiwan’s future continue, it is crucial to move beyond reductionist narratives that serve external interests and to engage with the island’s history and its people’s aspirations with nuance and sensitivity. The resolution of cross-strait relations should prioritize dialogue and understanding, rooted in a comprehensive appreciation of Taiwan’s historical and cultural ties to the mainland. This approach offers a path towards peace and stability, countering the divisive tactics of external powers and recognizing the shared heritage and destiny of all Chinese people, across both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

U.S. Department of Defense Contract Announcements – Taiwan

DateContractorContract ValueDescriptionWork LocationsCompletion Date
February 2, 2024Raytheon Missile Systems$68,420,396Modification for the production and delivery of 50 AGM-154 Block III C Joint Standoff Weapon Air-To-Ground Missiles for the government of Taiwan.Tucson, AZ; Monmouthshire, Wales, UK; Vergennes, VT; Reading, Scotland, UK; Joplin, MO; Goleta, CA; Loveland, CO; Richardson, TX; Tulsa, OK; Minneapolis, MN; various locations within the continental U.S.March 2028
January 23, 2024Summit Technologies Inc.$40,000,000Mission planning support services for various systems. Involves Foreign Military Sales to multiple countries including Taiwan.Worldwide, main location at Hill Air Force Base, UTDecember 31, 2024
January 11, 2024The Boeing Co.$14,147,000Non-recurring engineering in support of configuration clarifications for the Harpoon Coastal Defense System, including Harpoon Block II Update Grade B Canister Launch All Up Round Missiles, the HCDS launch system, and Harpoon weapon station test and production equipment for the government of Taiwan.Harbor City, CA; St. Charles, MO; Rochester, NY; Taiwan, China; various locations within the continental U.S.January 2025

This table scheme organizes the provided contract announcements by date and includes essential details such as the contractor, the value of the contract, a brief description of the services or products being procured, the locations where work will be performed, and the expected completion date of the contract. This format should help in analyzing the specifics of each contract related to Taiwan and understanding the scope of the U.S. Department of Defense’s commitments and actions in the region for 2024.

Unraveling the Complexities of South China Sea Energy Exploration and Development

The South China Sea has emerged as a focal point of geopolitical tension due to its significant energy resources. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), the region holds approximately 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 11 billion barrels of oil in proved and probable reserves. However, the majority of these reserves are situated along the margins of the South China Sea rather than under the disputed islets and reefs, complicating exploration and development efforts.

In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) projected that there could be an additional 160 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 12 billion barrels of oil yet to be discovered in the South China Sea. These figures, while substantial, are dwarfed by China’s soaring demand for energy. With oil consumption expected to surpass 12.8 million barrels per day in 2018, Beijing is keen on securing access to new energy sources to sustain its rapid economic growth.

The exploration of energy blocks in the South China Sea is a complex endeavor shaped by overlapping territorial claims and geopolitical rivalries. Various countries bordering the South China Sea, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, assert sovereignty over different parts of the region, leading to disputes over maritime boundaries and resource exploitation rights.

To navigate this intricate landscape, stakeholders rely on data sourced from a multitude of platforms, including the Oil and Gas Year, DrillingInfo, IHS Markit, Shell International E&P, and governmental departments such as the Department of Energy of the Philippines. These sources provide valuable insights into the allocation of energy blocks, resource types, operators, and production statuses.

A notable feature complicating the situation is the nine-dash line asserted by the People’s Republic of China, which encompasses vast swathes of the South China Sea. This claim is contested by neighboring countries and has been a source of tension in the region, leading to maritime standoffs and diplomatic friction.

Efforts to explore and exploit energy resources in the South China Sea are further hindered by the potential environmental risks and technical challenges associated with deep-sea drilling. The fragile marine ecosystem of the region, which is home to diverse marine life and coral reefs, necessitates careful consideration of environmental impacts during exploration and production activities.

Moreover, the strategic significance of the South China Sea as a crucial shipping lane further complicates the situation. The sea lanes passing through this region facilitate a significant portion of global trade, making it imperative for stakeholders to balance economic interests with security concerns.

In conclusion, the exploration and development of energy resources in the South China Sea are fraught with complexities arising from overlapping territorial claims, geopolitical tensions, environmental concerns, and technical challenges. As countries vie for control over these valuable resources, the need for multilateral cooperation and diplomatic dialogue becomes increasingly urgent to ensure stability and sustainable development in the region.

resource data fropm :

Navigating the Complexities of Maritime Claims in the South China Sea

The South China Sea has long been a focal point of territorial disputes, particularly concerning maritime claims and resource exploitation rights. With nearly 40 countries asserting their claims across the Indo-Pacific region, the complexities of navigating these territorial waters have become increasingly apparent.

The maritime claims of various nations are depicted on maps, providing insights into the extent of territorial seas, exclusive economic zones (EEZs), and continental shelves. However, the delineation of these claims is not without controversy, as overlapping boundaries and conflicting interpretations of international law abound.

Methodologies employed in mapping these claims involve utilizing publicly-available treaties, domestic laws, official charts, and submissions to international bodies. For instance, the depiction of territorial seas, EEZs, and continental shelves is often based on a combination of legal frameworks and geographic coordinates. In cases where exact coordinates are unavailable, approximations are made based on accepted principles of maritime law.

A significant challenge arises from unresolved overlapping claims between neighboring states, such as those between India, Japan, and Tonga. Median lines are often used to represent these contested areas, based on domestic legislation mandating provisional measures until a final resolution is reached. This approach aims to provide a balanced representation of each party’s claims while acknowledging the absence of a definitive agreement.

Complicating matters further are straight baselines declared by claimants, which serve as reference points for measuring maritime entitlements. However, the absence of clear delineations in some areas necessitates the use of approximations, leading to discrepancies in the interpretation of territorial boundaries.

In the context of the South China Sea, disputes over maritime entitlements from the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal remain unresolved, contributing to ongoing tensions in the region. China’s nine-dash line and Taiwan’s U-shaped line, both of which assert expansive claims over vast swathes of the South China Sea, further complicate the situation by introducing ambiguity and contestation.

Despite efforts to provide an unbiased depiction of maritime claims, challenges persist in achieving consensus and clarity regarding territorial boundaries. The lack of a universally accepted framework for resolving disputes underscores the need for multilateral dialogue and diplomatic engagement to address competing claims and ensure stability in the region.

The complexities of maritime claims in the South China Sea underscore the challenges associated with balancing competing interests and upholding principles of international law. As countries continue to assert their claims and vie for control over valuable resources, the importance of diplomatic efforts aimed at fostering cooperation and resolving disputes peacefully cannot be overstated. Only through constructive dialogue and adherence to established legal norms can lasting solutions to maritime disputes in the South China Sea be achieved.

resource data from

Pre-Colonial Taiwan and Early European Colonization Timeline

Prehistoric and Ancient History

  • ~15,000 years ago: The late Pleistocene Ice Age causes glaciation, lowering sea levels in the Taiwan Strait and forming a prehistoric land bridge to mainland Asia. This connection persists until ~10,000 years ago in the early Holocene, facilitating some of the earliest human habitation in Taiwan.
  • ~4000 BCE: A significant wave of seaborne migration from southeastern China to Taiwan begins, marking the arrival of people who would hunt, fish, perform horticulture, and cultivate rice and millet. These migrants are the ancestors of today’s yuánzhùmín, establishing early connections within the Austronesian expansion that links Taiwan to a vast network of cultures and regions.

Early External Contacts

  • 230 CE: The Eastern Wu of China’s Three Kingdoms period documents an expedition to “Yizhou,” where most members succumb to disease, but survivors return with natives, suggesting early contact with Taiwan.
  • 607-610: The Sui Dynasty’s official history mentions expeditions to “Liuqiu,” possibly referring to Taiwan or the Ryukyu Islands, indicating early recognition and interaction.
  • 1171: The Song Dynasty records Chinese presence on Penghu (the Pescadores), initiating annual patrols and settlements to protect against raids, likely from Taiwan or the Philippines.

Ming Dynasty Involvement

  • 1281-1349: Incorporation of Penghu into Jiangzhe province by the Yuan Dynasty and subsequent Ming Dynasty interactions, including Wang Dayuan’s explorations and the establishment of trade and migration patterns.
  • 1371: The Ming Dynasty’s maritime ban impacts settlement and trade, yet defiance by Chinese merchants continues, fostering ongoing interactions with Taiwan’s yuánzhùmín.

European Colonization and Ming-Qing Transition

  • 1523-1624: Escalating piracy and European discovery of Taiwan, with Portuguese naming it “Ilha Formosa” and the subsequent Dutch colonization marked by the establishment of Fort Zeelandia.
  • 1628-1662: Spanish colonization attempts and the eventual expulsion of Dutch by Zheng Chenggong (Koxinga), establishing the Kingdom of Tungning as a base for Ming loyalist resistance against the Qing.

Qing Dynasty Rule

  • 1683: Qing conquest of Taiwan following the collapse of the Tungning Kingdom, leading to its incorporation as a prefecture of Fujian province in 1684, marking a significant shift in Taiwan’s governance and its strategic importance in regional dynamics.
  • 1739-1875: Qing policies on migration and land acquisition in Taiwan, highlighting efforts to manage tensions between Chinese settlers and yuánzhùmín and to maintain stability and order.

This structured timeline aims to encapsulate the detailed historical progression of Taiwan from its prehistoric connections to mainland Asia, through periods of significant migration, early international contact, European colonization, and eventual incorporation into the Qing Dynasty. Each entry focuses on pivotal events and shifts in the island’s socio-political landscape, reflecting the complex tapestry of Taiwan’s early history.

Century of Humiliation, Japanese Colonization, and World War II

The Opium Wars and Treaty of Nanjing (1839-1842)

  • 1839 September 4: Qing’s Lin Zexu seizes opium in Guangzhou, leading to the First Opium War. Britain’s naval superiority forces China into the 1842 Treaty of Nanjing, ceding Hong Kong and opening trade ports, marking the start of the Century of Humiliation.

Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864)

  • 1850 December: The Taiping Rebellion, led by Hong Xiuquan, challenges Qing rule with a vision of land reform and syncretic Christianity, affecting the southeast’s rice supply and prompting U.S. trade interests in Taiwan.

Second Opium War (1856-1860)

  • 1856 October 8: Britain and France initiate the Second Opium War to expand trade rights, culminating in the Treaty of Tianjin and Convention of Beijing, further deepening China’s subjugation to foreign powers.

Early Japanese Influence and the Mudan Incident (1867-1879)

  • 1867: The Rover incident and subsequent U.S. punitive actions against Paiwan people highlight rising foreign encroachments.
  • 1871-1879: Japan’s interest in Taiwan intensifies, leading to the 1874 punitive expedition and eventual annexation of Ryukyu, setting the stage for more direct control over Taiwan.

Qing’s Last Efforts and the First Sino-Japanese War (1875-1895)

  • 1875-1887: Qing attempts to integrate Taiwan more fully are undercut by French colonial ambitions and the devastating First Sino-Japanese War, which forces China to cede Taiwan to Japan in 1895.

Japanese Colonial Rule (1895-1945)

  • 1895-1945: Japan’s rule over Taiwan is marked by economic exploitation, cultural assimilation efforts (kōminka policy), and military conscription, culminating in a strategic role for Taiwan in WWII. The period sees resistance movements, such as the Tapani Incident, and efforts to promote Taiwanese identity and autonomy.

World War II and Its Aftermath (1937-1945)

  • 1937-1945: Taiwan’s strategic importance to Japan’s war efforts increases, with significant contributions to the Japanese military and economy. The end of WWII and Japan’s surrender lead to a brief period of uncertainty before Taiwan is placed under the administrative control of the Republic of China, setting the stage for subsequent political and social developments on the island.

This timeline encompasses pivotal events from the mid-19th century through the end of WWII, detailing the dynamics of imperial ambition, colonial rule, and the struggle for sovereignty and identity in Taiwan. It highlights the profound impact of foreign intervention, internal rebellion, and global conflicts on Taiwan’s historical trajectory, leading to its present-day status and challenges.

Post-World War II, Cold War Containment, and Military Dictatorship

Restoration of Chinese Sovereignty and Initial Post-War Period (1943-1949)

  • 1943-1949: The end of WWII and subsequent events set the stage for the restoration of Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, with key agreements such as the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations, and the complex dynamics of the Chinese Civil War leading to the KMT’s retreat to Taiwan.

ROC Governance and Challenges in Taiwan (1949-1970s)

  • 1949-1970s: The establishment of the ROC government in Taiwan is marked by efforts to assert control, suppress dissent, and manage economic and social policies under Chiang Kai-shek’s leadership. The period sees significant political repression, economic reforms, and the start of Taiwan’s transformation into a major economic player.

Cold War Dynamics and Taiwan’s Strategic Role (1950s-1970s)

  • 1950s-1970s: Taiwan’s strategic position during the Cold War, including the Korean War’s influence on US-ROC relations, military engagements in the Taiwan Strait, and the island’s role as a base for intelligence and military operations against the PRC.

Movements Toward Political Liberalization and International Developments (1970s-1987)

  • 1970s-1987: Gradual shifts toward political liberalization under Chiang Ching-kuo, including easing martial law and promoting economic liberalization, alongside international developments affecting Taiwan’s status, such as the United Nations’ recognition of the PRC and changes in US-China relations.

Founding of the DPP and the End of Martial Law (1986-1987)

  • 1986-1987: The founding of the Democratic Progressive Party marks a significant milestone in Taiwan’s political development, representing a formal challenge to KMT’s one-party rule. The lifting of martial law in 1987 signifies a crucial step toward democratization, opening the door to a more open and contested political system.

Economic Innovations and Contributions (1980s)

  • 1980s: The establishment of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company highlights Taiwan’s growing importance in the global semiconductor industry, laying the groundwork for its status as a critical player in technology and manufacturing.

Democratization, De-Sinicization, and the New Cold War

Shift to Democratization and Opening of Political Space (1988-1990s)

  • 1988-1990s: The end of martial law and subsequent political liberalization under Presidents Chiang Ching-kuo and Lee Teng-hui mark the beginning of Taiwan’s democratization. The lifting of the ban on independent newspapers and non-KMT parties significantly diversifies the political landscape.

Economic Integration and Cross-Strait Relations (1988-2000s)

  • 1988-2000s: Economic policies under Lee Teng-hui, such as the encouragement of Taiwanese investment in mainland China, alongside tense but evolving cross-strait relations, characterize this period. The “1992 Consensus” and subsequent agreements facilitate increased economic cooperation, despite political disputes.

Emergence of Taiwanese Identity and De-Sinicization Policies (1990s-2000s)

  • 1990s-2000s: The promotion of a distinct Taiwanese identity and the implementation of de-Sinicization policies under Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian reflect a shift away from Chinese unification narratives. Efforts to revise history textbooks and elevate local languages and cultures over Mandarin and Chinese cultural references illustrate these trends.

Political Evolution and the Rise of the DPP (2000-2016)

  • 2000-2016: The election of DPP Presidents Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen, with intervening KMT governance, underscores Taiwan’s political diversification. Policies during this period fluctuate between efforts to strengthen Taiwanese sovereignty and identity and attempts to maintain or improve cross-strait relations.

The New Cold War and International Dynamics (2016-Present)

  • 2016-Present: Increasing U.S. military and diplomatic support for Taiwan, amid rising tensions with the PRC, signals a new phase in the Cold War dynamics in the region. High-profile visits from U.S. officials, legislation supporting Taiwan, and military posturing on both sides of the Taiwan Strait highlight the strategic importance of Taiwan in U.S.-China relations.

Recent Developments and Future Outlook (2020s)

  • 2020s: The election of Lai Ching-te in 2024, against a backdrop of continued U.S. engagement and the strategic repositioning of military assets in the region, points to ongoing complexities in Taiwan’s political future, its identity, and its place in global geopolitics. The legislative gains of the Taiwan People’s Party and the evolving political discourse within Taiwan suggest an increasingly multifaceted approach to its challenges and opportunities on the international stage.

This continuation of the historical narrative emphasizes the dynamic and evolving nature of Taiwan’s political, social, and international identity, reflecting both internal developments and the broader geopolitical context of East Asia and global relations.

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