The establishment of BRICS in 2009 marked a significant shift in the global economic and political landscape. This cooperation platform brought together five of the world’s largest emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Over the years, BRICS has evolved into a formidable alliance, challenging the dominance of traditional powerhouses like the G7. The recent expansion of BRICS on January 1, 2024, to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, underscores its growing influence and ambition.
Turkiye’s aspiration to join BRICS is a testament to the bloc’s appeal and its potential to reshape global dynamics. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed this desire during an event at the Centre for China and Globalisation (CCG) in Beijing, highlighting Turkiye’s keen interest in the developments within BRICS. “Certainly, we would like to become a member of BRICS. So we’ll see how it goes this year,” Fidan remarked, as reported by the South China Morning Post newspaper.
The expansion of BRICS is not just a symbolic gesture; it is a strategic move that reflects the shifting balance of economic power. In 2022, BRICS outperformed the G7 in terms of GDP, and forecasts suggest that BRICS economies will account for more than 50 percent of global GDP by 2030. This impressive growth trajectory positions BRICS as a crucial player in the global economy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized the significance of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the emerging multipolar world. These organizations are becoming key pillars in fostering a more balanced and diversified global order. Economic experts highlight that BRICS is also spearheading the de-dollarization of the global economy. Members of this bloc are increasingly using national currencies in their trade relations. For instance, 90% of settlements between Russian and Chinese companies are now conducted in rubles and yuans, reducing their reliance on the US dollar.
The recent inclusion of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates into BRICS, transforming it into BRICS+, marks a significant milestone in the bloc’s evolution. This expansion not only enhances the economic clout of BRICS but also brings together a diverse group of countries with shared interests and goals.
Russia has welcomed Turkiye’s interest in joining BRICS. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated, “We, of course, all welcome this increased interest in BRICS on the part of our neighboring states, including our important partners such as Turkiye. Of course, the topic of this interest will be on the agenda of the BRICS summit, which will be chaired by Russia.” Peskov acknowledged that while BRICS might not fully meet the expectations of all countries expressing interest, the bloc is keen on fostering contacts and expanding its reach.
APPENDIX 1 – BRICS Expansion: A Transformative Shift in Global Economic Power
The expansion of BRICS, originally formed in 2009 with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, to now include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates as of January 1, 2024, marks a strategic shift in global economic power. This move is not just symbolic but reflects the changing dynamics in the global economy, where emerging markets are playing an increasingly pivotal role.
Economic Performance and Projections
In 2022, BRICS outperformed the G7 in terms of GDP. The combined GDP of the original BRICS nations amounted to $27.7 trillion, representing 26% of the global GDP. With the addition of the new members, this figure is projected to rise to $30.8 trillion, which would account for 29.3% of the global GDP. This is still short of the G7’s total GDP of $45.9 trillion, but the gap is narrowing as BRICS nations continue to grow at impressive rates.
Forecasts suggest that by 2030, BRICS economies will account for more than 50% of global GDP. This growth trajectory is driven largely by the robust economic performances of China and India. China’s GDP, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), is projected to reach $33 trillion by 2023, making it the largest economy in PPP terms. India, on a similar path, is expected to reach a GDP of $13 trillion by the same year.
Key Economic Metrics
GDP (Nominal and PPP)
- China: Nominal GDP – $19.4 trillion, PPP GDP – $33 trillion
- India: Nominal GDP – $3.7 trillion, PPP GDP – $13 trillion
- Brazil: Nominal GDP – $2.1 trillion, PPP GDP – $4 trillion
- Russia: Nominal GDP – $2.1 trillion, PPP GDP – $5 trillion
- South Africa: Nominal GDP – $0.4 trillion, PPP GDP – $1 trillion
- Saudi Arabia: Nominal GDP – $1.1 trillion, PPP GDP – Not specified
- Iran: Nominal GDP – $368 billion, PPP GDP – Not specified
- Ethiopia: Nominal GDP – $156 billion, PPP GDP – Not specified
- Egypt: Nominal GDP – $387 billion, PPP GDP – Not specified
- Argentina: Nominal GDP – $641 billion, PPP GDP – Not specified
- UAE: Nominal GDP – $499 billion, PPP GDP – Not specified
Population and Resource Distribution
BRICS represents a significant portion of the global population, particularly with the addition of countries like Ethiopia and Egypt. The combined population of BRICS now stands at approximately 3.7 billion people, which is 46% of the global population. This demographic heft gives BRICS considerable leverage in global economic and political affairs.
Moreover, the expanded BRICS bloc controls a significant share of global natural resources. With Saudi Arabia and Iran in the fold, BRICS countries now account for 43.1% of global oil production. This is a substantial increase from the 20.4% share before the expansion. Such control over oil production could have far-reaching implications for global energy markets and trade.
Strategic Initiatives and De-Dollarization
One of the key strategic initiatives of BRICS is the move towards de-dollarization. The bloc is increasingly using national currencies for trade settlements to reduce dependence on the US dollar. For example, 80% of the trade between Russia and China is now conducted in rubles or yuan. This trend is likely to continue as BRICS expands and integrates further.
BRICS is also exploring the possibility of creating a common currency to facilitate trade and investment within the bloc. While this is a long-term goal and presents significant challenges, the push towards greater financial integration is clear.
Technological and Infrastructure Development
BRICS nations are focusing on technological innovation and infrastructure development as key drivers of economic growth. The New Development Bank (NDB), established by BRICS, has financed numerous projects aimed at improving infrastructure, enhancing connectivity, and promoting sustainable development across member countries. The NDB’s investments in renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and urban development are aligned with the bloc’s broader economic and development goals.
Future Prospects
The future of BRICS looks promising as it continues to expand and strengthen its economic and political influence. The addition of new members brings fresh opportunities and challenges. Countries like Saudi Arabia, with its vast oil reserves, and Ethiopia, with its significant growth potential, add new dimensions to BRICS’ economic landscape.
However, integrating these diverse economies into a cohesive bloc will require addressing various geopolitical and economic challenges. Issues such as trade barriers, political differences, and regional conflicts will need to be managed effectively to harness the full potential of the expanded BRICS.
In conclusion, the expansion of BRICS marks a significant shift in the global economic order. With its growing economic clout, strategic initiatives, and focus on sustainable development, BRICS is well-positioned to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of global economics and politics. As the bloc continues to grow and evolve, its influence on the global stage is set to increase, challenging the traditional dominance of Western powers and promoting a more balanced and multipolar world.
Detailed Scheme Table
| Metric | BRICS Total (Pre-Expansion) | BRICS Total (Post-Expansion) | G7 Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (Nominal, USD trillions) | $27.7 | $30.8 | $45.9 |
| GDP (PPP, USD trillions) | $56.0 | $56.0+ | $52.4 |
| Share of Global GDP (Nominal) | 26% | 29.3% | 43% |
| Share of Global GDP (PPP) | 31.67% | 36% | 30.31% |
| Population (billions) | 3.24 | 3.7 | 0.75 |
| Share of Global Population | 40% | 46% | 10% |
| Oil Production (thousand barrels/day) | 20.4% of global | 43.1% of global | Not specified |
| Major Contributors (GDP Nominal, USD trillions) | China: $19.4, India: $3.7 | Saudi Arabia: $1.1, Egypt: $0.387 | USA: $26.9, Japan: $4.4 |
This table highlights the significant metrics that underscore the transformative impact of BRICS expansion on the global economic landscape. The data points and projections indicate a robust growth trajectory for BRICS, positioning it as a key player in the global economy for the foreseeable future.
BRICS’ expansion and its strategic initiatives are set against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic shifts. The bloc’s increasing focus on de-dollarization is a response to the changing dynamics of global trade and finance. By reducing their dependency on the US dollar, BRICS members are aiming to enhance their economic sovereignty and mitigate the risks associated with currency fluctuations and geopolitical tensions.
Moreover, the expansion of BRICS to include countries from diverse regions reflects a broader trend towards multipolarity. The inclusion of Middle Eastern and African nations brings new dimensions to BRICS, allowing it to address a wider range of issues and challenges. This diversity also enhances the bloc’s ability to influence global policy and promote a more inclusive and equitable international order.
The strategic importance of BRICS is further underscored by its role in promoting infrastructure development and investment. The New Development Bank (NDB), established by BRICS, has been instrumental in financing projects that foster sustainable development and economic growth. The bank’s focus on infrastructure, renewable energy, and urban development aligns with the priorities of its member states and contributes to the overall development agenda of the Global South.
In recent years, BRICS has also intensified its efforts to enhance cooperation in science, technology, and innovation. The bloc recognizes that technological advancement is crucial for economic growth and competitiveness. Collaborative initiatives in areas such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology are aimed at harnessing the collective potential of BRICS countries to drive innovation and create new economic opportunities.
Furthermore, BRICS is increasingly seen as a platform for political dialogue and cooperation. The bloc provides a forum for its members to discuss and coordinate their positions on key international issues, ranging from climate change and sustainable development to global security and governance reforms. By presenting a united front on these issues, BRICS aims to amplify its voice in global decision-making processes and promote a more balanced and just world order.
The expansion of BRICS has also implications for global energy markets. The inclusion of major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates adds significant weight to BRICS’ influence in the energy sector. This development could lead to greater coordination among BRICS members on energy policies and initiatives, potentially reshaping global energy dynamics.
As BRICS continues to grow and evolve, its impact on the global economic and political landscape is likely to increase. The bloc’s emphasis on cooperation, inclusivity, and sustainable development positions it as a key driver of change in the 21st century. By fostering collaboration among some of the world’s largest and most dynamic economies, BRICS is contributing to the creation of a more multipolar, equitable, and prosperous world.
In conclusion, the establishment and expansion of BRICS represent a significant shift in the global order. The bloc’s growing economic influence, strategic initiatives, and commitment to de-dollarization underscore its role as a key player in shaping the future of global governance and economic development. As more countries express interest in joining BRICS, the bloc’s potential to drive positive change and promote a more balanced and inclusive international system will continue to grow.
