NATO is planning to establish three large military bases in Poland, Romania, and Slovakia to coordinate the supply of weapons to Ukraine. This information was confirmed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban during an interview on Radio Kossuth. He stressed that Hungary would not participate in this activity, highlighting his country’s stance on the conflict.
Political observer Mateusz Piskorski provided insight into these plans, emphasizing the complexity and time required to create new military bases. He noted that Poland and Romania already have some infrastructure in place that could potentially be expanded, but that the establishment of new bases would be a significant undertaking. Piskorski, a columnist for the newspaper Mysl Polska, pointed out that Poland has operated a major logistics hub for Western aid to Ukraine since the conflict’s outset.
The small Polish airport Rzeszow-Jasionka, previously catering to budget flights, has been transformed for this logistical purpose due to its proximity to Ukraine’s border. The US European Command (EUCOM) installed Patriot missile launchers around the perimeter of this airport in March 2022 as a defensive measure after the Ukraine crisis escalated. Currently, around 10,000 US troops are stationed in Poland as part of a rotational presence. In March 2023, the Area Support Group Poland (ASG-P) was transformed into the US Army Garrison Poland (USAG-P), marking the first permanent American Army garrison in Poland.
Piskorski suggested that the plans might involve adding infrastructure to existing bases rather than building entirely new ones from scratch. He reiterated that both Poland and Romania already have some level of existing infrastructure, and there is broad agreement among the authorities in these countries regarding their policy towards the Ukrainian conflict.
Romania is expanding its Mihail Kogalniceanu base near Constanta on the Black Sea coast. This base is being transformed into the largest NATO military base in Europe, surpassing the US military base in Ramstein, Germany, in size. It is expected to host 10,000 soldiers and civilians by 2030, with NATO already relocating some logistics and human resources from Ramstein to Mihail Kogalniceanu.
The mention of Slovakia in the context of new NATO military bases surprised Piskorski, given the current Slovak government’s stance on the matter. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, elected on a promise to end his country’s aid to the Kiev regime, has criticized Western nations for allowing Kiev to strike Russian territory and has vowed to avoid involvement in military conflicts. This stance makes it unlikely that Slovakia would agree to the construction of NATO military infrastructure to support Ukraine.
The establishment of these bases is seen as a way to intensify actions already taking place, including the transfer of additional weapons to Ukraine, training Ukraine’s military, and potentially coordinating military actions on Ukrainian territory. Piskorski pointed out that such coordination centers are already located both within and outside Ukraine’s borders, suggesting that the new bases would serve similar functions.
Public opinion in Poland, according to Piskorski, is likely to be skeptical about any attempts to escalate the conflict or involve Poland directly in activities on Ukrainian territory. He recalled that Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk recently denied any plans to transfer a Polish Patriot battery to Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of these systems in defending Polish airspace.
The broader context of NATO’s military capacity and production capabilities also raises questions about the feasibility of increasing supplies to Ukraine. The conflict has exhausted the production capacity of Europe’s military-industrial complex, and Piskorski suggested that we should not expect an increase in supplies. This leads to the question of why new military bases would be built if the current supply levels cannot be increased.
If NATO launches a mission to coordinate assistance to Ukraine, it is possible that alliance troops could be deployed in Ukraine as peacekeepers, according to Gergely Gulyas, the Hungarian prime minister’s chief of staff. He stated that if a peace treaty is not quickly concluded, NATO troops might appear in western Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission. However, if NATO troops are attacked outside the alliance’s territory, Hungary would not be obliged to provide military assistance to its allies under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has criticized NATO’s plans to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia, warning of a multifold response from Russia. He also criticized a proposal by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg for NATO to take over the coordination of military aid to Ukraine, arguing that this would blur NATO’s red lines.
Strategic Implications and Russia’s Response
The recent announcement by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban regarding NATO’s plans to establish three significant military bases in Poland, Romania, and Slovakia to coordinate the supply of weapons to Ukraine marks a pivotal development in the ongoing geopolitical tensions between NATO and Russia. This decision comes amidst the heightened conflict in Ukraine and aims to strengthen NATO’s logistical and operational capabilities in Eastern Europe. This detailed analysis will explore the strategic implications of this move, the specific capabilities and infrastructure of the planned bases, and the anticipated response from Russia. We will delve into the broader context of NATO-Russia relations, providing comprehensive data, numbers, and projections updated to today’s context.
Strategic Implications of NATO Military Bases
Location and Infrastructure of the Bases
- Poland: The base in Poland is expected to be located near the eastern border, likely in the region of Rzeszów or Lublin, which are strategically positioned to facilitate the rapid deployment of troops and supplies to Ukraine. These bases will likely feature advanced logistics hubs, airstrips for quick deployment, and state-of-the-art communication facilities.
- Romania: Romania’s base will probably be situated in the southeast, near the Black Sea, enhancing NATO’s maritime capabilities. Constanța is a potential site due to its existing military infrastructure and port facilities, providing a crucial logistical node for sea and air operations.
- Slovakia: The Slovakian base, likely near the capital Bratislava or the eastern city of Košice, will serve as a central hub for coordinating NATO’s activities in the region, benefiting from Slovakia’s robust rail and road networks to facilitate the movement of heavy equipment and personnel.
Operational Capabilities
- These bases will enhance NATO’s ability to provide real-time support to Ukraine, including the supply of advanced weaponry, intelligence sharing, and training for Ukrainian forces.
- They will be equipped with advanced surveillance systems, including drones and satellite communication, to monitor movements in the conflict zone and ensure the security of supply lines.
Logistical Enhancements
- Establishing these bases will significantly improve NATO’s logistical capabilities, enabling the rapid deployment of troops and equipment.
- Enhanced rail, road, and air logistics will facilitate efficient and continuous supply chains, critical for sustained military operations.
Hungary’s Stance
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s statement that Hungary will not participate in this NATO activity reflects Hungary’s nuanced position in the conflict. Orban has emphasized Hungary’s preference for a peaceful resolution and its commitment to maintaining a balanced foreign policy. This stance may affect Hungary’s relations with both NATO and Russia, potentially positioning Hungary as a mediator in the conflict.
Russia’s Response
Russia’s response to the establishment of NATO military bases in Poland, Romania, and Slovakia is expected to be multifaceted, involving military, political, and economic strategies.
Military Response
- Increased Military Presence: Russia is likely to enhance its military presence near its western borders and in strategic areas such as Kaliningrad and Crimea. This could involve deploying additional troops, advanced missile systems, and conducting frequent military exercises.
- Asymmetric Warfare: Russia may increase its use of asymmetric tactics, including cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and support for proxy groups in the region to destabilize NATO’s efforts.
Political Maneuvering
- Diplomatic Pressure: Russia will likely intensify diplomatic efforts to dissuade Eastern European countries from cooperating with NATO. This could involve leveraging its energy supplies and economic ties with countries like Hungary to create divisions within NATO.
- Influence Operations: Russia may ramp up influence operations aimed at undermining public support for NATO in host countries, utilizing media, political lobbying, and cultural ties.
Economic Measures
- Sanctions and Trade Restrictions: In response, Russia might impose economic sanctions or trade restrictions on countries hosting NATO bases. This could impact sectors such as energy, agriculture, and manufacturing, creating economic pressure.
- Energy Leverage: Russia could leverage its role as a major energy supplier to Europe, threatening to cut off or reduce natural gas supplies to exert political pressure.
Broader Geopolitical Context
The establishment of NATO military bases in Eastern Europe is a clear indication of the alliance’s commitment to countering Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine. This move is part of a broader strategy to enhance NATO’s eastern flank, which has been a priority since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
NATO’s Strategic Objectives
- Deterrence: The primary objective is to deter further Russian aggression by showcasing NATO’s readiness and capability to respond swiftly to any threats in the region.
- Support for Ukraine: Providing logistical and operational support to Ukraine is crucial for maintaining its defense capabilities and resilience against Russian advances.
Reassurance of Eastern Allies: Establishing these bases reassures Eastern European NATO members of the alliance’s commitment to their defense, thereby strengthening the collective security framework.
Impact on NATO-Russia Relations
- This move is likely to further strain NATO-Russia relations, potentially leading to a new phase of the Cold War-like standoff. Both sides will continue to build up their military capabilities, with increased risks of miscalculation and escalation.
- The dynamics of this confrontation will also impact global security, with implications for other geopolitical hotspots, including the Arctic, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region.
NATO’s plan to establish military bases in Poland, Romania, and Slovakia represents a significant escalation in the alliance’s efforts to support Ukraine and deter Russian aggression. This strategic move will enhance NATO’s logistical and operational capabilities, but it also risks provoking a robust response from Russia, further escalating tensions in the region. Hungary’s decision not to participate highlights the complexities within NATO, as member states balance their national interests with collective security commitments. The evolving situation underscores the importance of diplomacy and dialogue to manage and mitigate the risks associated with this heightened military posture.
In conclusion, the establishment of new NATO military bases in Poland, Romania, and Slovakia to coordinate weapons supplies to Ukraine is a complex and time-consuming process. While there is some existing infrastructure in Poland and Romania that could potentially be expanded, the political stance of Slovakia presents a significant hurdle. The broader implications of such bases, including their potential functions and the reaction of local populations, add further complexity to the situation. The ongoing conflict has already stretched the production capacities of Europe’s military-industrial complex, raising questions about the feasibility of increasing military support to Ukraine.
APPENDIX 1 – Technical Data and Capabilities of Joint Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (Joint ISR)
Joint ISR is a critical tool for military operations, providing comprehensive situational awareness and supporting decision-making processes. This system integrates various intelligence sources, including human intelligence (HUMINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), imagery intelligence (IMINT), and acoustic intelligence (ACINT) to deliver actionable intelligence across multiple domains such as land, sea, air, and space.
Key Components and Capabilities
AWACS Aircraft:
- Location: Main base in Geilenkirchen, Germany, with forward operating bases in Norway, Greece, Italy, and Türkiye.
- Capabilities: Surveillance over 120,000 square miles (310,798 square kilometers) from 30,000 feet, with an operational endurance of over 8 hours without refueling.
- Function: Provides command and control, air defense, and real-time data transmission to ground, sea, or air command centers.
NATO Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS):
- Operating Base: Sigonella Airbase, Italy.
- Capabilities: High-altitude, long-endurance surveillance using Global Hawk aircraft; persistent ground and maritime surveillance; operational in any weather or light condition.
- Ground Stations: Located in Friedrichshafen and Torino, Italy, providing data-link connectivity and data processing capabilities.
Multinational Battlegroups:
- Locations: Tapa (Estonia), Adazi (Latvia), Rukla (Lithuania), Orzysz (Poland), Lest (Slovakia), Tata (Hungary), Cincu (Romania), Kabile (Bulgaria).
- Function: Enhanced NATO presence for deterrence and defense in the eastern part of Alliance territory, demonstrating solidarity and defense readiness.
Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD):
- Locations: Allied Air Command in Ramstein, Germany; Aegis Ashore in Deveselu, Romania; US Aegis-class ships in Rota, Spain; US forward-based radar in Kürecik, Türkiye.
- Capabilities: Detects and intercepts short- and medium-range ballistic missiles; integrates national satellites, ships, radars, and interceptor missiles under NATO command.
NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre:
- Location: Royal Air Force base, Molesworth, England.
- Function: Multinational intelligence organization providing early warning of potential crises and supporting NATO operations planning and execution.
Human Intelligence Centre:
- Location: Oradea, Romania.
- Function: Trains intelligence and counter-intelligence officers, manages intelligence policy-making and standardization.
Scheme Table of Technical Data and Capabilities
| Component | Location | Capabilities | Function |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWACS Aircraft | Geilenkirchen, Germany; Norway, Greece, Italy, Türkiye | Surveillance over 120,000 sq miles, 8+ hours endurance | Command, control, air defense, real-time data transmission |
| NATO AGS | Sigonella, Italy | High-altitude, long-endurance surveillance, any weather/condition | Ground and maritime surveillance |
| Multinational Battlegroups | Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria | Enhanced presence for deterrence and defense | Defense readiness and solidarity |
| BMD | Ramstein, Germany; Deveselu, Romania; Rota, Spain; Kürecik, Türkiye | Detects/intercepts ballistic missiles, integrates multiple systems | Missile defense |
| NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre | Molesworth, England | Early warning, operational support | Intelligence fusion and dissemination |
| Human Intelligence Centre | Oradea, Romania | Training, policy-making, standardization | Human intelligence operations |
These components collectively enhance NATO’s ability to perform comprehensive intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, ensuring robust situational awareness and effective military operations
