In a landmark decision, the United States has declassified its nuclear weapons stockpile inventory for the first time since 2021. This unprecedented move signifies a new level of transparency regarding sensitive information. The recent revelations, published by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), indicate that only 69 retired nuclear warheads were dismantled last year, the lowest number since 1994. The overall total of nuclear warheads in the U.S. stockpile stands at 3,748 as of September 2023.
Overview of the Stockpile
According to the NNSA, the stockpile includes both active and inactive strategic and non-strategic (tactical) warheads. Active warheads are operational and ready for use, including logistics spares, while inactive ones are stored in depots in a non-operational status. Though inactive warheads could be deployed, this process would require time and the installation of components with limited lifespans, such as tritium bottles.
Tritium and Nuclear Weapons
Tritium, along with deuterium, is crucial for boosting the chain reaction in nuclear weapons, resulting in a more powerful explosion. In thermonuclear weapons, tritium boosts the fission primary or first stage. Given its radioactive and rapidly decaying nature, tritium bottles are removed from inactive warheads.
Stockpile Dynamics
Retired warheads, considered non-functional, and dismantled warheads, broken down into components, are not included in the stockpile. The NNSA compares the current total of 3,748 warheads with the maximum level of 31,255 warheads achieved in 1967, during a critical Cold War period. In 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, the U.S. stockpile had 22,217 warheads. The latest figure represents an 88 percent reduction since 1967 and an 83 percent decrease since 1989.
Reduction in Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons
The reduction has been significantly driven by dismantling non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons, which have decreased by more than 90 percent since 1991. From fiscal years 1994 through 2023, 12,088 warheads were dismantled. Since September 2020, 405 nuclear warheads have been dismantled, with approximately 2,000 more retired warheads awaiting dismantlement.
Pace of Reduction
Despite the overall reduction, the pace has slowed in recent years. Since 2007, the reduction has been modest, noted by the U.S.-based Federation of American Scientists (FAS), which advocates for increased transparency. Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at FAS, attributes recent reductions to changes in presidential guidance, strategy, and modernization programs rather than treaty obligations.
Dismantlement and Policy Shifts
In 2023, only 69 retired nuclear warheads were dismantled, the lowest number since 1994. This slow rate contributes to the high number of retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, roughly 2,000 compared to 2,500 in 2015. Kristensen notes discrepancies in NNSA’s chart showing stockpile fluctuations between 1945 and 2024, indicating potential inaccuracies.
Transparency and Political Context
The decision to release this information reflects changing political priorities. The Obama administration first introduced this transparency policy, later reversed by the Trump administration, and reinstated by the Biden administration. FAS requests for stockpile transparency were rejected in FY2021, FY2022, and FY2023, but the NNSA has since declassified these figures.
The new disclosure of the stockpile numbers suggests that denial of earlier FAS declassification requests in 2023 and 2024 may not have been justified and that future years’ numbers should not be classified.
Encouraging International Transparency
The NNSA emphasizes that increasing transparency of nuclear stockpiles is crucial for nonproliferation and disarmament efforts. However, whether other nuclear-armed states like Beijing and Moscow will reciprocate remains uncertain. France and the United Kingdom, U.S. allies, also maintain secrecy over their nuclear capacities.
Nuclear Arms Control Agreements
Concerns about the future of nuclear arms control agreements have been rising. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) collapsed in 2019, and Russia suspended its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) last year. In 2023, Russia rescinded its ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty but insists it will not restart testing unless the U.S. does first. American officials accuse Russia of developing a nuclear-armed space-based weapon, violating the Outer Space Treaty.
Implications of U.S. Transparency
The value of U.S. transparency, especially without reciprocal disclosures, is debated. With tensions between Russia and the West and China’s rapid nuclear build-up, some argue that now is not the time to divulge nuclear secrets. However, proponents of openness believe that transparency helps mitigate the risk of reigniting nuclear arms races.
In conclusion, the declassification of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile inventory is a significant step towards transparency. It reflects a commitment to nonproliferation and disarmament, despite uncertainties about international reciprocation. The detailed analysis of the stockpile’s composition, reductions, and political context provides a comprehensive understanding of the current state and future challenges of nuclear weapons management.
APPENDIX 1 – Detailed technical data and capabilities regarding the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile as of September 2023:
Technical Data
- Total Stockpile: 3,748 nuclear warheads.
- Active Warheads: Operational and ready for use.
- Inactive Warheads: Stored, non-operational status, requiring time to be deployed.
- Retired Warheads: Non-functional, awaiting dismantlement.
- Dismantled Warheads: Broken down into component parts.
- Dismantlement:
- Warheads Dismantled in 2023: 69 (lowest since 1994).
- Total Dismantled (1994-2023): 12,088 warheads.
- Retired Warheads Awaiting Dismantlement: ~2,000.
- Historical Comparison:
- 1967 Stockpile: 31,255 warheads.
- 1989 Stockpile: 22,217 warheads.
- Reduction Since 1967: 88%.
- Reduction Since 1989: 83%.
Capabilities
- Warhead Types:
- Strategic Warheads: Deployed on ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers.
- Non-strategic Warheads: Tactical uses.
- Delivery Systems:
- ICBMs: Deployed in silos across the U.S.
- SLBMs: Carried on Ohio-class submarines.
- Strategic Bombers: B-2A and B-52H, capable of carrying various nuclear bombs and air-launched cruise missiles.
- New Developments: B61-12, B61-13, and AGM-181 Long-Range Standoff Weapon (LRSO).
- Upgrades:
- Nuclear Command-and-Control:
- Global Aircrew Strategic Network Terminal (ASNT): Enhanced ground-based communications.
- Family of Advanced Beyond Line-of-Sight Terminals (FAB-T): Connects bombers with military satellite constellations.
- New Bomber: B-21 Raider, increasing the number of nuclear bomber bases.
- Nuclear Command-and-Control:
Historical and Strategic Context
- Reduction Drivers: Changes in presidential guidance, strategy, and modernization programs.
- Transparency Efforts: Initiated by the Obama administration, with fluctuations under subsequent administrations.
- Current Security Environment: Increased tensions with Russia and China.
Detailed Scheme Table
| Parameter | Data/Value |
|---|---|
| Total Stockpile (2023) | 3,748 warheads |
| Active Warheads | Operational and logistics spares |
| Inactive Warheads | Stored, non-operational |
| Retired Warheads | ~2,000 awaiting dismantlement |
| Warheads Dismantled (2023) | 69 |
| Total Dismantled (1994-2023) | 12,088 |
| Maximum Historical Stockpile | 31,255 (1967) |
| Stockpile (1989) | 22,217 |
| Reduction Since 1967 | 88% |
| Reduction Since 1989 | 83% |
| ICBMs | Deployed in U.S. silos |
| SLBMs | Ohio-class submarines |
| Strategic Bombers | B-2A and B-52H |
| New Developments | B61-12, B61-13, AGM-181 LRSO |
| Command-and-Control Upgrades | ASNT, FAB-T |
| New Bomber | B-21 Raider |
| Key Transparency Efforts | Obama administration, fluctuating |
This data reflects the latest declassified information as of 2023 and provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile, its composition, capabilities, and strategic context
APPENDIX 2 – Stockpile
| Stockpile Numbers – End of Fiscal Years 1962-2023*Data prior to 1962 released by Department of Energy in December 1993 | |||
| 1962 | 25,540 | 1993 | 11,511 |
| 1963 | 28,133 | 1994 | 10,979 |
| 1964 | 29,463 | 1995 | 10,904 |
| 1965 | 31,139 | 1996 | 11,011 |
| 1966 | 31,175 | 1997 | 10,903 |
| 1967 | 31,255 | 1998 | 10,732 |
| 1968 | 29,561 | 1999 | 10,685 |
| 1969 | 27,552 | 2000 | 10,577 |
| 1970 | 26,008 | 2001 | 10,526 |
| 1971 | 25,830 | 2002 | 10,457 |
| 1972 | 26,516 | 2003 | 10,027 |
| 1973 | 27,835 | 2004 | 8,570 |
| 1974 | 28,537 | 2005 | 8,360 |
| 1975 | 27,519 | 2006 | 7,853 |
| 1976 | 25,914 | 2007 | 5,709 |
| 1977 | 25,542 | 2008 | 5,273 |
| 1978 | 24,418 | 2009 | 5,113 |
| 1979 | 24,138 | 2010 | 5,066 |
| 1980 | 24,104 | 2011 | 4,897 |
| 1981 | 23,208 | 2012 | 4,881 |
| 1982 | 22,886 | 2013 | 4,804 |
| 1983 | 23,305 | 2014 | 4,717 |
| 1984 | 23,459 | 2015 | 4,571 |
| 1985 | 23,368 | 2016 | 4,018 |
| 1986 | 23,317 | 2017 | 3,822 |
| 1987 | 23,575 | 2018 | 3,785 |
| 1988 | 23,205 | 2019 | 3,805 |
| 1989 | 22,217 | 2020 | 3,750 |
| 1990 | 21,392 | 2021 | 3,713 |
| 1991 | 19,008 | 2022 | 3,768 |
| 1992 | 13,708 | 2023 | 3,748 |
*Does not include weapons retired and awaiting dismantlement
| Department of Energy Weapon Dismantlements(Fiscal Year 1994 – 2023) | |||
| 1994 | 1,369 | 2009 | 356 |
| 1995 | 1,393 | 2010 | 352 |
| 1996 | 1,064 | 2011 | 305 |
| 1997 | 498 | 2012 | 308 |
| 1998 | 1,062 | 2013 | 239 |
| 1999 | 206 | 2014 | 299 |
| 2000 | 158 | 2015 | 109 |
| 2001 | 144 | 2016 | 258 |
| 2002 | 344 | 2017 | 354 |
| 2003 | 222 | 2018 | 243 |
| 2004 | 206 | 2019 | 284 |
| 2005 | 280 | 2020 | 184 |
| 2006 | 253 | 2021 | 214 |
| 2007 | 545 | 2022 | 122 |
| 2008 | 648 | 2023 | 69 |
| Total Dismantlements12,088 | |||
DEFINITIONS
The nuclear stockpile includes both active and inactive warheads. Active warheads include strategic and non-strategic weapons maintained in an operational, ready-for-use configuration, warheads that must be ready for possible deployment within a short timeframe, and logistics spares. They have tritium bottles and other Limited Life Components installed. Inactive warheads are maintained at a depot in a non-operational status and have their tritium bottles removed. A retired warhead is removed from its delivery platform, is not functional, and is not considered part of the nuclear stockpile. A dismantled warhead is a warhead reduced to its component parts.
