The Geopolitical Fallout: Nasrallah’s Death and the Broader Conflict in the Middle East – REPORT- Who will be the next leaders?

In an intensifying region fraught with decades of enmity and warfare, the killing of Hezbollah’s long-serving leader, Hassan Nasrallah, marks a pivotal moment in the conflict between Israel and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. His death, resulting from a targeted Israeli airstrike, has reignited flames that have long simmered beneath the surface, threatening to plunge the Middle East into deeper chaos and destabilize an already volatile region. As Israel escalates its military campaigns, the international response has been swift but divided, with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei making a call to Muslims to rally behind Lebanon and Hezbollah. The broader implications of Nasrallah’s death stretch far beyond the borders of Lebanon, signaling a significant shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, reverberating through Iran, Israel, and the global community at large.

Nasrallah’s Assassination: The Beginning of an Intensified Conflict

Hassan Nasrallah had been a central figure in the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape for over three decades. His leadership of Hezbollah since 1992, following the assassination of his predecessor Abbas al-Musawi, had turned the organization into one of the most powerful non-state actors in the region. Known for his rhetoric against Israel and the West, Nasrallah forged a strategic alliance with Iran, positioning Hezbollah as a critical element of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the United States.

On Friday, in what Israeli military officials described as a decisive blow to Hezbollah, Israeli jets launched a series of airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the heartland of Hezbollah’s support base. The bombardment, which employed ten bunker-busting bombs, destroyed several residential buildings in Dahiyeh, including the headquarters where Nasrallah was believed to be hiding. The aftermath saw thick plumes of smoke emerging from the ruins, as footage captured by Middle East Eye depicted scenes of destruction.

Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee confirmed Nasrallah’s death, along with that of several senior Hezbollah commanders, including Ali Karki, the commander of the southern front. “Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world,” Adraee declared, framing the operation as a victory against terrorism.

Hezbollah, in turn, confirmed the death of Nasrallah, issuing a statement that reverberated across the region: “His eminence, the master of resistance, the righteous servant, has passed away to be with his lord who is pleased with him as a great martyr.” The statement also promised that the group would continue its struggle against Israel, vowing retaliation but providing little information on Nasrallah’s successor or the group’s immediate plans.

Khamenei’s Call to Arms: Iran’s Strategic Calculations

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wasted no time in responding to the killing of Nasrallah. In his first official statement following the assassination, Khamenei denounced the actions of Israel, calling on the Muslim world to stand with Lebanon and Hezbollah in resisting what he termed the “usurping and wicked regime.” He framed the killing as part of a broader Israeli agenda aimed at weakening the resistance movement in the region, but emphasized that Israel’s leaders were shortsighted in believing they could destabilize Hezbollah’s strongholds through such acts of aggression.

Khamenei’s statement is significant for several reasons. First, it underscores Iran’s commitment to supporting its proxy forces across the region, particularly Hezbollah, which has served as Iran’s most powerful ally in Lebanon and a key player in its broader strategic aims. Second, Khamenei’s call for Muslims to unite in confronting Israel is likely to fuel greater anti-Israeli sentiment across the Muslim world, potentially leading to increased violence in the region.

Following the Israeli airstrikes, reports indicated that Khamenei convened an emergency session of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council at his residence, signaling the gravity of the situation. The Islamic Republic has long used Hezbollah as a means of countering Israeli influence, and Nasrallah’s death is a significant blow to Iran’s regional ambitions.

While Hezbollah has confirmed that Hashem Safieddine, a close relative of Nasrallah and a key political figure within the organization, survived the attack, it remains unclear who will ultimately succeed Nasrallah as Hezbollah’s leader. Safieddine, who oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs and is a member of the group’s Jihad Council, has been widely regarded as Nasrallah’s heir apparent. However, any transition of leadership could face challenges, particularly at a time when Hezbollah is grappling with internal and external pressures.

The Broader Geopolitical Implications: Israel’s Calculated Risks

Nasrallah’s assassination is far from an isolated event; it represents a broader shift in Israel’s military strategy towards Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance. For years, Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in a shadow war, with Hezbollah’s military capabilities—largely supported by Iran—posing a persistent threat to Israel’s northern borders.

In recent months, tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated sharply. Israeli strikes on Iranian positions in Syria, coupled with the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, have heightened the stakes. Moreover, Iran’s military involvement in Syria and Lebanon has fueled Israeli concerns about the potential for a multi-front war involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian-backed groups.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s response to Nasrallah’s death was clear and unequivocal. In a speech delivered shortly after the airstrikes, Netanyahu declared that Israel would continue to wage war against Hezbollah with “all our might” as long as the group chose the path of war. “Israel has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely,” he said, pouring cold water on the international calls for a ceasefire.

The Israeli air campaign has already resulted in significant casualties. Since Sunday, over 700 people are estimated to have been killed in Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon, with a heavy concentration of bombings in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Israeli officials have framed these strikes as necessary to defend their citizens, while Hezbollah and its allies have condemned them as acts of aggression.

International Response: Calls for Ceasefire Amid Escalating Violence

As the conflict intensifies, world leaders have scrambled to respond to the situation. US President Joe Biden has reiterated calls for a ceasefire, emphasizing the need for both sides to step back from the brink of further escalation. European leaders have similarly called for restraint, with several countries warning that the violence could spiral out of control.

However, the responses from Middle Eastern countries have been more mixed. While some have condemned the Israeli strikes, others have remained relatively muted, reflecting the deep-seated divisions within the Arab world over the conflict. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has long viewed Iran’s influence in Lebanon with suspicion and has been cautious in its response, wary of openly aligning itself with Hezbollah.

Iran, meanwhile, has made it clear that it reserves the right to retaliate at a time and place of its choosing. Regional officials have indicated that Iran is in constant contact with Hezbollah and other groups to coordinate a response, though what form this will take remains to be seen.

The Path Forward: Uncertainty and Risks

Nasrallah’s assassination raises numerous questions about the future of Hezbollah and the broader Axis of Resistance. With the group’s leadership now in flux, Hezbollah will need to determine how best to navigate the challenges posed by Israel’s continued military operations, as well as the broader geopolitical dynamics at play.

At the same time, Israel faces significant risks in pursuing its current strategy. While it may have succeeded in eliminating one of its most prominent adversaries, it remains unclear whether the death of Nasrallah will lead to a weakening of Hezbollah or further entrench the group’s resistance. Hezbollah’s deep ties to Iran, its sophisticated military capabilities, and its entrenched position within Lebanese society make it a formidable force, one that is unlikely to be easily dismantled.

For Iran, the stakes are similarly high. Nasrallah’s death represents a blow to its influence in Lebanon, but Tehran is likely to double down on its support for Hezbollah, viewing the conflict as a key battleground in its broader struggle against Israel and the United States.

In the coming months, the situation is likely to remain highly fluid. Much will depend on how Hezbollah responds to the loss of its leader and whether Israel is able to maintain its military momentum. International efforts to broker a ceasefire will continue, but with both sides deeply entrenched in their positions, a resolution to the conflict seems distant.

As the situation unfolds, one thing is certain: the killing of Hassan Nasrallah has ushered in a new and dangerous phase in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict, one that has the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East for years to come.

The Next Steps for Hezbollah: Leadership, Strategy, and Iran’s Role in the Power Vacuum

In the immediate aftermath of Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination, the critical question remains: What will Hezbollah do next, and how will Iran shape its response in Lebanon and the broader region? Nasrallah’s death creates a leadership vacuum at the top of Hezbollah, and the group’s ability to rebound from this loss will be crucial in determining its future trajectory. To understand the potential next summits for Hezbollah in Lebanon, we must analyze the group’s organizational structure, the capabilities of its remaining leadership, and how Iran will likely influence Hezbollah’s military, political, and social strategies in the region.

Iran’s strategic calculations will also play a pivotal role in shaping Hezbollah’s response to the assassination, given the symbiotic relationship between the two entities. Iran has long regarded Hezbollah as a critical part of its regional power projection, serving as the spearhead of the “Axis of Resistance” and as a counterbalance to Israeli and American influence in the Middle East. As a result, Hezbollah’s next steps will not be determined in isolation but will likely be influenced by Tehran’s broader regional goals and its own calculus in the evolving conflict.

The Succession in Hezbollah: Hashem Safieddine and Beyond

Hezbollah’s leadership structure has always been centralized, with Hassan Nasrallah as the unchallenged leader since he took over the organization in 1992. However, as mentioned earlier, Hashem Safieddine is widely regarded as the heir apparent, and he holds considerable authority within the organization. Safieddine, as a cleric and a cousin of Nasrallah, is deeply entrenched in Hezbollah’s political and religious hierarchy. His position as head of the Executive Council, responsible for overseeing the organization’s political and social affairs, makes him the most likely successor.

While Safieddine possesses the political acumen and religious credentials to lead Hezbollah, his ascension may not be without challenges. First, the dynamics within Hezbollah’s military wing could become more complicated in the wake of Nasrallah’s death. Nasrallah was deeply respected by Hezbollah’s military commanders, many of whom had worked with him for decades. Safieddine, though a key political figure, does not have the same military pedigree, which could complicate his ability to command the same level of loyalty from Hezbollah’s armed forces.

In addition, there may be internal power struggles within Hezbollah. The organization is known for its hierarchical and disciplined structure, but in moments of leadership transition, factions can emerge. Hezbollah has a number of influential commanders and clerics who may seek to challenge Safieddine’s rise, particularly if they believe the group needs a stronger military leader in light of the heightened tensions with Israel.

Analysis of Hezbollah’s Leadership Post-September 28, 2024: Key Figures Still Alive and Likely Successors

On September 27, 2024, Israel carried out a decisive airstrike targeting Hezbollah’s central command in Lebanon, resulting in the death of several high-ranking leaders, including the group’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. This operation aimed to “decapitate” Hezbollah’s leadership pyramid, significantly altering the group’s internal hierarchy. In this context, the remaining leadership and potential successors for key roles are of great importance. This document provides a detailed analysis of the most important surviving figures within Hezbollah and evaluates their potential to assume command positions as of September 28, 2024.

Hezbollah’s Structure Post-Strike

Hezbollah’s command structure is organized into several councils and operational units that govern its military, political, and social operations. The most critical bodies include the Shura Council, Jihad Council, Executive Council, Political Council, and External Security Organization (ESO). These councils ensure Hezbollah’s operational continuity, even when its leadership is targeted.

The death of Nasrallah and other senior commanders introduces uncertainty into the organization, but Hezbollah’s decentralized structure allows for smooth succession planning. Below is an in-depth analysis of key surviving figures who are likely to assume command.

Hezbollah’s Leadership Structure Before the Strike

Hezbollah’s organizational structure, while deeply hierarchical, has been intentionally decentralized to ensure resilience in the face of external attacks. As of 2024, the group operated through several core councils, each with distinct roles:

• Shura Council (Consultative Council): The highest decision-making body within Hezbollah, responsible for overseeing both military and political strategies. It includes leaders elected from across Hezbollah’s military, political, and religious branches.
• Jihad Council: The military arm of Hezbollah, responsible for the planning and execution of military operations. This council has overseen Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria, its operations against Israel, and its international activities.
• Executive Council: Handles Hezbollah’s domestic social, economic, and political programs, including healthcare, education, and welfare programs in Lebanon.
• Political Council: Manages Hezbollah’s relationships with other political entities in Lebanon and oversees the group’s participation in the Lebanese parliament.
• Judicial Council: Ensures compliance with Hezbollah’s internal legal framework and religious obligations, including the application of Sharia law within the organization.

These interconnected councils, led by senior commanders, have allowed Hezbollah to function as both a political and military entity. Nasrallah’s leadership had been central to coordinating these elements, maintaining Hezbollah’s dual role as both a formidable military power and a political force in Lebanon.

Naim Qassem – Deputy Secretary-General

Position: Deputy Secretary-General
Born: 1953
Role and Influence:
As the Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem is the most senior surviving member of Hezbollah’s leadership. He has been a close associate of Nasrallah since the group’s formation in the 1980s. Qassem is considered a founding figure of Hezbollah and is known for his deep ideological influence on the group. He is a key figure in Hezbollah’s decision-making process, especially on issues related to religious guidance and the group’s political philosophy.

Analysis:
While Qassem is the official second-in-command, his age (71 as of 2024) and declining health may limit his ability to lead the organization in the long term. He has historically been more involved in the political and ideological facets of Hezbollah rather than direct military strategy. His longevity and experience within Hezbollah make him a stabilizing figure during this transitional period, but his suitability for sustained military leadership is questionable. Nonetheless, Qassem could serve as an interim leader while a younger, more dynamic figure rises to prominence.

Potential Role: Interim Leader or Political Guide

Hashem Safieddine – Head of the Executive Council

Position: Head of the Executive Council
Born: 1964
Role and Influence:
Hashem Safieddine is a cousin of Hassan Nasrallah and serves as the head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, the body responsible for managing Hezbollah’s domestic social and political programs. Safieddine has a strong administrative background and plays a crucial role in Hezbollah’s social welfare and political operations in Lebanon. He has long been seen as one of the top contenders to succeed Nasrallah.

Analysis:
Safieddine’s position within Hezbollah’s leadership is strengthened by his familial ties to Nasrallah and his relatively younger age (60 in 2024) compared to other senior leaders. He is seen as a competent administrator and has the backing of Iran, which plays a significant role in Hezbollah’s internal decision-making. However, his visibility on the international stage has attracted significant attention, and he has been sanctioned by the U.S. and other countries. Despite these challenges, Safieddine’s strong internal support makes him a likely candidate to assume leadership.

Potential Role: Secretary-General or Strategic Leader

Talal Hamiyah – Head of External Security Organization (ESO)

Position: Head of External Security Organization
Role and Influence:
Talal Hamiyah oversees Hezbollah’s external security operations, including intelligence activities, international missions, and military strategy beyond Lebanon. Hamiyah is believed to have played a key role in Hezbollah’s overseas activities and is a senior figure in the group’s military wing. He is currently wanted by the United States, which has placed a significant bounty on his capture.

Analysis:
Hamiyah’s military background makes him a key player in Hezbollah’s international operations. His leadership in the ESO places him in a strategic position to coordinate the group’s military responses following Nasrallah’s death. However, his high international profile and U.S. efforts to capture him may hinder his ability to publicly assume a leadership role. His experience in covert military operations, however, positions him as a strong military commander within Hezbollah’s ranks.

Potential Role: Military Commander or Chief of Covert Operations

Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyid – Head of the Political Council

Position: Head of the Political Council
Role and Influence:
Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyid is responsible for managing Hezbollah’s political strategy within Lebanon and coordinating its participation in Lebanese politics. He oversees the group’s parliamentary activities and maintains relationships with other political actors in Lebanon, ensuring Hezbollah’s integration into the country’s political fabric.

Analysis:
Al-Sayyid lacks significant military experience, which may limit his appeal in Hezbollah’s post-Nasrallah era, especially as the group faces military and security challenges from Israel. However, his political expertise and deep involvement in Hezbollah’s political operations make him a key figure in maintaining the group’s influence in the Lebanese government. Al-Sayyid is expected to continue playing a central role in Hezbollah’s political strategy, even if he does not assume the role of Secretary-General.

Potential Role: Political Strategist or Head of Political Affairs

Mustafa Mughniyeh – Senior Military Commander

Position: Senior Military Commander
Role and Influence:
Mustafa Mughniyeh is the son of the late Imad Mughniyeh, the legendary Hezbollah military commander assassinated by Israel in 2008. Mustafa has risen through the ranks to become a senior military leader within Hezbollah. While his profile remains relatively low compared to other leaders, he is believed to be involved in Hezbollah’s military planning and operations.

Analysis:
Mughniyeh’s military pedigree and his family’s legacy within Hezbollah give him significant standing within the group’s military wing. He is seen as a potential future leader, especially in military operations, although his lack of political experience may limit his ability to assume overall leadership of the organization. As Hezbollah prepares to respond to the recent Israeli strikes, Mughniyeh is expected to play a key role in coordinating military strategy.

Potential Role: Chief Military Strategist

Iran’s Influence and Potential Iranian Candidates

Iran has long been Hezbollah’s primary patron, providing financial, military, and ideological support to the organization. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly its Quds Force, plays an instrumental role in guiding Hezbollah’s strategic decisions. Iran’s influence will be crucial in the selection of Nasrallah’s successor.

• Hossein Salami and Esmail Qaani, senior IRGC commanders, are expected to have significant input in the selection process. They are likely to support candidates who maintain Hezbollah’s commitment to military resistance against Israel, while also balancing the group’s political role in Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s Leadership Future Post-Nasrallah

As of September 28, 2024, Hezbollah faces a critical leadership transition following the death of Hassan Nasrallah. The most likely successors include Naim Qassem, Hashem Safieddine, and Talal Hamiyah, each of whom brings different strengths to the table. While Qassem represents continuity and ideological leadership, Safieddine offers administrative acumen and strong political connections, and Hamiyah provides military expertise. Iran’s role in shaping the future of Hezbollah cannot be overstated, and its influence will likely guide the group’s next steps in this tumultuous period.

Hezbollah’s ability to recover from this leadership decapitation will depend on the cohesion of its surviving leaders and their capacity to manage both internal and external pressures.

The Strategic Role of Hashem Safieddine in Hezbollah’s Ascendancy and Regional Conflicts

Also Known As :

• Hashem Safi al-Din
• Hashem Safi a-Din
• Hashim Safi al Din
• Hashim Safi Al-Din
• Hashim Safieddine

Hashem Safieddine, a significant figure within Hezbollah, has long been positioned at the helm of the organization’s political, social, cultural, and educational affairs. As the head of Hezbollah’s Executive Assembly, Safieddine plays a pivotal role in shaping the group’s activities and strategic decisions. His influence extends beyond these domains as he is also one of the seven members of Hezbollah’s ruling Shura Council, the highest decision-making body in the organization. His status within Hezbollah’s leadership has made him one of the most important figures in the group’s hierarchy, second only to the Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah.

Safieddine’s political influence is further highlighted by reports that he is likely to succeed Nasrallah as the Secretary-General of Hezbollah. This anticipated leadership transition underscores his deep-rooted involvement in the organization and his key role in its future direction. Safieddine’s importance is not limited to internal matters; his name gained international attention when both the United States and Saudi Arabia designated him as a terrorist in May 2017. This label underscores the perception of Safieddine as a central figure in Hezbollah’s activities, many of which are viewed as a threat to regional stability by these countries.

Early Life and Rise within Hezbollah

Born in Lebanon in 1964, Hashem Safieddine has spent much of his life involved in Hezbollah’s operations, rising through the ranks since the organization’s founding in 1982. During the 1980s, he reportedly traveled to Iran, where he received leadership training, a formative experience that would later shape his approach to guiding Hezbollah’s multifaceted activities. This connection to Iran is significant as Hezbollah maintains a deep alliance with the Iranian regime, a bond that has significantly influenced the group’s geopolitical strategies and actions across the Middle East.

Safieddine’s rise within Hezbollah’s hierarchy accelerated in 1992 when Hassan Nasrallah assumed the position of Secretary-General, leaving the leadership of the Executive Assembly vacant. Safieddine’s appointment to this role marked the beginning of his long-term leadership of the body responsible for many of Hezbollah’s political and administrative functions. His effective management of these responsibilities, combined with his close relationship to Nasrallah—who is both his maternal cousin and close confidant—cemented his standing within the organization.

Safieddine’s role as Nasrallah’s likely successor has been a subject of speculation for years, but it became more publicly acknowledged in 2008. That year, Nasrallah openly stated that Safieddine would succeed him in the event of his assassination or incapacitation. Given the frequent threats to Hezbollah’s leadership, particularly from Israel, this statement further solidified Safieddine’s prominence within Hezbollah and its strategic future.

Hezbollah’s Evolution: From Local Resistance to Regional Power

Since its inception, Hezbollah has evolved from a local resistance movement against Israel into a dominant political and military force in Lebanon and a key player in regional conflicts. Safieddine’s leadership within the organization has been integral to this transformation. He has overseen the group’s expansion beyond Lebanon’s borders, particularly through its involvement in the Syrian civil war and its broader engagement in the “Axis of Resistance,” an alliance of Iran-backed militias and movements across the Middle East.

One of the most defining characteristics of Hezbollah under Safieddine and Nasrallah’s leadership has been its staunch opposition to Israel and the United States. Safieddine, in particular, has frequently delivered speeches that emphasize Hezbollah’s continued commitment to armed resistance against Israel, viewing it as a central component of the organization’s ideology and mission. His fiery rhetoric has been aimed at galvanizing Hezbollah’s supporters while sending a clear message to its adversaries.

The Syrian Civil War and Hezbollah’s Strategic Gains

Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war, beginning in 2012, marked a significant turning point for the group, transforming it from a primarily Lebanese-focused organization into a regional power player. Safieddine has been a vocal supporter of Hezbollah’s decision to back the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a move that has both solidified Hezbollah’s ties to Iran and positioned it as a key actor in the broader Middle Eastern power dynamics.

Under Safieddine’s guidance, Hezbollah played a crucial role in the Syrian conflict, deploying thousands of fighters to support Assad’s forces. This intervention was critical in turning the tide of the war in Assad’s favor and ensuring the survival of his regime. The strategic importance of Syria to Hezbollah cannot be understated. The group’s access to Iranian military and financial support, funneled through Syria, has been vital to its operations. Safieddine, as a key figure within Hezbollah’s leadership, has been instrumental in orchestrating the group’s role in this complex conflict.

Hezbollah’s Deepening Alliance with Iran

Hezbollah’s longstanding alliance with Iran has been central to its strategic objectives and military capabilities. This relationship, forged in the early 1980s, has grown stronger over the decades, with Iran providing Hezbollah with substantial financial support, military training, and advanced weaponry. Safieddine’s brother, Abdallah Safieddine, serves as Hezbollah’s representative in Tehran, further underscoring the deep familial and organizational ties between Hezbollah’s leadership and the Iranian regime.

Iran’s backing of Hezbollah has allowed the organization to develop into a formidable military force, capable of waging sustained campaigns against Israel and other adversaries. Safieddine’s leadership role within Hezbollah places him at the center of this alliance, making him a key figure in the broader Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance.” This network of militias and political movements, which includes groups such as Hamas and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, seeks to counter U.S. and Israeli influence in the region.

The 2023 Hamas Attack on Israel and Hezbollah’s Response

On October 7, 2023, Hamas, a longtime ally of Hezbollah, launched an unprecedented surprise attack on Israel. The attack, which resulted in the deaths of at least 1,200 Israelis, marked a significant escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hezbollah, as part of the Axis of Resistance, quickly expressed its support for Hamas and began its own military campaign against Israel, launching rockets, drones, and missiles toward northern Israel the following day.

The attack by Hamas, and Hezbollah’s subsequent involvement, was a clear demonstration of the close coordination between these Iran-backed groups. Both organizations share a common goal of weakening Israel and undermining U.S. influence in the region. Safieddine, in his capacity as a senior Hezbollah leader, played a key role in directing the group’s actions during this period. His speeches and public appearances during the conflict emphasized Hezbollah’s resolve to continue its fight against Israel, aligning with the broader objectives of the Axis of Resistance.

The 2024 Israel-Hezbollah Escalation

Following the Hamas attack in 2023, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel remained high throughout 2024. On June 11, 2024, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a targeted airstrike against a Hezbollah command-and-control center in southern Lebanon. The strike killed Taleb Sami Abdullah, a veteran Hezbollah field commander who had been responsible for planning and executing numerous attacks against Israel.

Safieddine, ever the defiant figure, delivered a speech at Abdullah’s funeral on June 12, 2024, where he vowed that Hezbollah would intensify its attacks against Israel. True to his word, Hezbollah launched a massive rocket barrage later that day, firing 215 projectiles at Israeli military installations. This attack, one of the largest since the October 2023 conflict, demonstrated Hezbollah’s continued military capabilities and its willingness to engage in sustained conflict with Israel.

The Israeli response to Hezbollah’s escalation came swiftly. On June 14, 2024, the IDF targeted Safieddine’s residence in Deir Qanoun, southern Lebanon, in a precision airstrike. The attack reportedly also aimed at Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem and co-founder Subhi al-Tufayli. While Hezbollah claimed that the building was empty at the time of the strike, the targeting of such high-profile figures within the organization underscored Israel’s determination to neutralize Hezbollah’s leadership.

Safieddine’s Strategic Vision and Hezbollah’s Future

As Hezbollah continues to navigate the complex and volatile political landscape of the Middle East, Safieddine’s role within the organization will likely become even more critical. His close ties to both Iran and Hezbollah’s leadership, combined with his ability to manage the group’s diverse activities, make him a key figure in shaping Hezbollah’s future trajectory.

Safieddine’s strategic vision for Hezbollah is rooted in the organization’s long-standing goals: the destruction of Israel, the expulsion of U.S. forces from the region, and the establishment of a regional order aligned with Iranian interests. His leadership style, which blends pragmatism with ideological commitment, has allowed Hezbollah to adapt to changing circumstances while remaining true to its core principles.

As the potential successor to Hassan Nasrallah, Safieddine’s future role within Hezbollah will be pivotal. His ability to maintain the organization’s cohesion, manage its alliances, and navigate the complex regional dynamics will determine Hezbollah’s success in the years to come. His close relationship with Iran will ensure that Hezbollah continues to receive the support it needs to sustain its military operations and political influence.

In conclusion, Hashem Safieddine’s rise to prominence within Hezbollah has been marked by his strategic acumen, his ability to manage the organization’s diverse activities, and his unwavering commitment to its goals. As Hezbollah continues to engage in regional conflicts and pursue its objectives, Safieddine’s leadership will remain central to its operations, making him one of the most important figures in the Middle East’s ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.

Military History of Hezbollah: Guerilla Tactics, Asymmetric Warfare, and Strategic Patience

To predict Hezbollah’s future strategy, we need to examine its military history. Hezbollah’s strength has always been in asymmetric warfare—leveraging guerrilla tactics, hit-and-run operations, and utilizing Lebanon’s complex terrain to its advantage. Since its formation in the 1980s, Hezbollah has honed these tactics, particularly during its confrontations with Israel in southern Lebanon.

In the 2006 Lebanon War, Hezbollah fought the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to a near standstill, utilizing its deep knowledge of Lebanon’s geography and its well-developed network of underground bunkers and tunnels to launch rocket attacks and ambushes. Despite being heavily outgunned, Hezbollah’s military strategy forced Israel into a protracted conflict that ended with a UN-mediated ceasefire, underscoring Hezbollah’s resilience and ability to wage long-term, low-intensity warfare.

Hezbollah is also known for its strategic patience. Over the years, it has avoided rushing into direct confrontations with Israel unless it believed it could achieve a meaningful victory or force Israel into a quagmire. This patience allows Hezbollah to conserve its resources and maintain its legitimacy among the Lebanese population as a defender against Israeli aggression. However, Nasrallah’s death may alter this calculus. Hezbollah could feel pressured to act swiftly to avenge its leader, even if it deviates from its usual strategy of measured response.

Realistic Scenarios: Iran’s Influence and Hezbollah’s Response

In terms of Iran’s role, Tehran is likely to push Hezbollah towards a carefully calibrated response rather than an immediate large-scale escalation. Iran has always taken a long-term view in its regional strategy, preferring to strengthen its proxies over time and consolidate its influence across the Middle East. As such, Tehran will likely encourage Hezbollah to focus on preserving its organizational strength and avoiding actions that could provoke a full-scale Israeli invasion or significant internal instability in Lebanon.

Iran’s military doctrine is rooted in asymmetric warfare and the use of proxy forces to advance its strategic goals without engaging in direct confrontation. This strategy allows Iran to avoid the political and military costs of direct conflict while still undermining its adversaries. In the case of Nasrallah’s death, Iran may push Hezbollah to engage in limited but highly symbolic acts of retaliation, such as missile strikes against Israeli military positions or targeted attacks on Israeli assets abroad, similar to Hezbollah’s previous operations in Argentina in the 1990s or more recent operations in Syria.

However, this restraint may be temporary. Over the long term, Iran may view the killing of Nasrallah as an opportunity to escalate tensions with Israel, particularly if Tehran believes it can exploit the situation to rally regional support for Hezbollah and the broader Axis of Resistance. Iran’s leadership may also use this moment to strengthen its position in Lebanon by providing Hezbollah with advanced weaponry, including precision-guided missiles and drones, which could enhance Hezbollah’s military capabilities and make any future conflict with Israel even more dangerous.

Scenarios for Hezbollah’s Retaliation

• Limited but Symbolic Retaliation: In the short term, Hezbollah is likely to launch a limited response to Nasrallah’s assassination. This could include targeted rocket attacks on Israeli military outposts along the border, as well as small-scale operations against Israeli soldiers or settlers in the occupied territories. Such actions would allow Hezbollah to maintain its credibility as a resistance movement without escalating the conflict to a level that could provoke a full-scale Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
• Coordinated Regional Escalation: Another possible scenario is that Hezbollah coordinates its response with other members of the Axis of Resistance, including Iran, Hamas, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. In this scenario, Hezbollah’s retaliation would be part of a broader regional escalation against Israeli and American interests. This could involve simultaneous attacks on Israeli positions in Syria and Iraq, as well as Hezbollah’s traditional theater in southern Lebanon.
• Protracted Guerilla Campaign: If Hezbollah decides to pursue a long-term strategy, it could revert to its historical roots of guerrilla warfare. This would involve hit-and-run attacks, IED ambushes, and sniper operations along the Israeli border, designed to bleed the IDF over time. Hezbollah’s underground network of bunkers and tunnels, along with its stockpile of rockets and missiles, would make this a feasible approach, particularly if Hezbollah wants to avoid a direct confrontation with Israel’s superior air force and ground troops.
• Increased Presence in Southern Syria: In recent years, Hezbollah has expanded its presence in southern Syria, near the Israeli border in the Golan Heights. Nasrallah’s assassination could lead to an increase in Hezbollah’s military activities in this area, as the group seeks to open a second front against Israel. This would allow Hezbollah to apply pressure on Israel without directly engaging in a major conflict in Lebanon, while also bolstering Iran’s influence in Syria.

The Israeli Military Response: Strategic Dominance and Limitations

Israel, for its part, will likely continue to leverage its overwhelming military superiority to maintain pressure on Hezbollah. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have developed extensive capabilities for both conventional and unconventional warfare, and Israel’s advanced intelligence apparatus allows it to target Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure with precision. The IDF’s use of airstrikes, drones, and special forces operations will remain a central part of its strategy against Hezbollah, especially in the aftermath of Nasrallah’s death.

However, Israel faces significant limitations in pursuing a full-scale military operation against Hezbollah. First, the political and human costs of another invasion of Lebanon would be high. The 2006 war showed that while Israel can inflict significant damage on Hezbollah, it cannot easily dismantle the group or prevent it from regrouping in the aftermath. Furthermore, Hezbollah’s deep entrenchment in Lebanese society makes any Israeli military campaign against the group likely to result in heavy civilian casualties, which would provoke international condemnation and potentially inflame anti-Israeli sentiment across the Arab world.

Additionally, Israel’s leaders must consider the broader regional context. Any large-scale military operation against Hezbollah could escalate into a wider conflict involving Iran, Syria, and other Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen. This would stretch Israel’s military resources and create new security challenges on multiple fronts.

Iran’s Global Reach: Expanding Influence and the Threat to Israeli Citizens Worldwide

Iran’s ability to extend its geopolitical influence beyond the Middle East and project power globally is one of the most significant elements of its strategy against Israel. With the death of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel is bracing for a range of retaliatory attacks not just within the immediate regional theater but also around the world. Iran has cultivated a complex network of proxy forces, covert operatives, and allied groups, enabling it to strike at Israeli citizens and Jewish targets far beyond the Middle East. This asymmetric warfare tactic has been a hallmark of Iran’s approach to Israel, allowing Tehran to maintain plausible deniability while leveraging Hezbollah and other proxy groups to carry out attacks globally.

Historically, Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah have targeted Israeli diplomats, businesspeople, and tourists, and this pattern is expected to intensify in the wake of Nasrallah’s assassination. Israel’s security services have already increased warnings to Israeli citizens traveling abroad, especially in countries with a known Iranian or Hezbollah presence, such as Turkey, Europe, Latin America, and even parts of Africa. Iran’s expansion of influence into countries like Turkey and its strong alliances with other non-state actors raise concerns about new fronts in the conflict.

Historical Precedents: Hezbollah and Iran’s Global Terror Campaigns

Iran and Hezbollah’s history of targeting Israeli citizens and Jewish properties globally spans several decades. These operations typically follow moments of increased tensions, particularly when Iran feels directly challenged or humiliated, as in the case of Nasrallah’s assassination. Here are some of the most significant incidents of Hezbollah and Iranian attacks on Israeli or Jewish targets around the world:

• Argentina, 1992 – Israeli Embassy Bombing in Buenos Aires: One of the earliest major international attacks attributed to Hezbollah occurred in Argentina. On March 17, 1992, a suicide bombing targeted the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 people and injuring over 200. The bombing was linked to Hezbollah and was seen as a direct retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Abbas al-Musawi, Nasrallah’s predecessor. Iran has been widely accused of orchestrating the attack, using Hezbollah operatives to carry it out, although Tehran has consistently denied involvement.
• Argentina, 1994 – AMIA Jewish Community Center Bombing: Two years after the embassy attack, Hezbollah, with Iranian backing, struck again in Buenos Aires, this time targeting the Argentine-Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA) building. The bombing killed 85 people and injured hundreds more, marking the deadliest terror attack in Argentina’s history. Investigations pointed to Iranian officials and Hezbollah as the masterminds, solidifying Iran’s role as a sponsor of international terrorism aimed at Jewish and Israeli targets.
• Bulgaria, 2012 – Burgas Bus Bombing: More recently, on July 18, 2012, Hezbollah operatives carried out a suicide bombing on a bus full of Israeli tourists in the Bulgarian resort town of Burgas. The attack killed five Israelis and the Bulgarian bus driver. It was the first major Hezbollah attack in Europe since the 1990s and signaled the group’s continued ability and willingness to strike Israeli citizens abroad.
• Thailand, Georgia, India, and Azerbaijan – 2012 Foiled Attacks: In the same year as the Burgas bombing, Iranian and Hezbollah operatives were implicated in a series of attempted attacks on Israeli diplomats and businesses in countries as far afield as Thailand, Georgia, India, and Azerbaijan. These coordinated efforts were largely thwarted, but they demonstrated Iran’s global reach and its ability to target Israelis on multiple continents simultaneously.
• Cyprus, 2015 – Foiled Plot Against Israeli Targets: In 2015, Cypriot authorities arrested a Hezbollah operative in possession of 8.2 tons of ammonium nitrate, a material used in explosives, with the intent of targeting Israeli and Jewish interests on the island. Cyprus is a popular tourist destination for Israelis, and this plot underscored Hezbollah’s willingness to conduct attacks in unexpected locations.

Turkey’s Role: A Critical Theater for Iran’s Global Influence

Turkey has increasingly become a focal point for Iran’s influence and clandestine operations. Given its geographic proximity to both Iran and Israel, Turkey is strategically positioned as a potential battleground for Iranian operations targeting Israeli citizens. Historically, Turkey has served as a transit point for Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy forces, and Iranian intelligence has been active in the country for years. While Turkey maintains a complicated relationship with both Iran and Israel, its territory is frequently used by Iranian operatives to plan and carry out attacks against Israeli interests.

In the past decade, Israeli security services have foiled several attempts by Iranian agents to carry out attacks on Israeli tourists in Turkey. One of the most notable cases was in June 2022 when Mossad and Turkish intelligence cooperated to thwart an Iranian plot to assassinate Israeli citizens in Istanbul. The plot followed the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, for which Tehran blamed Israel.

Turkey’s pivotal role in the region, its porous borders, and its large expatriate populations of both Iranians and Israelis make it a prime location for Iranian operatives to plot attacks. The increasing tensions following Nasrallah’s death have led Israeli authorities to issue fresh warnings about the dangers to Israelis traveling in Turkey, highlighting the potential for a significant escalation of Iranian operations on Turkish soil.

Asymmetry of the Conflict: Iran’s Strategy of Annihilation

Iran’s broader objective in its conflict with Israel is rooted in a deep-seated ideological drive to see the elimination of the Israeli state. This goal is frequently articulated by Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has described Israel as a “cancerous tumor” that must be removed from the region. The destruction of Israel is not just a policy objective but an integral part of the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary ideology, which envisions a Middle East free from Western and Israeli influence.

The asymmetry of the conflict is central to Iran’s strategy. Unlike Israel, which relies on conventional military power, superior intelligence, and advanced technological capabilities, Iran operates through non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. These proxy forces allow Iran to wage war against Israel without engaging in direct military conflict, thereby reducing its vulnerability to retaliation while spreading the costs of war across its allies.

Iran’s asymmetric approach is also reflected in its use of unconventional warfare, including cyberattacks, assassinations, and economic warfare. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly its elite Quds Force, is responsible for managing Iran’s network of proxies and carrying out these asymmetrical operations. Led for many years by General Qassem Soleimani, the Quds Force has been instrumental in expanding Iran’s influence across the Middle East and beyond, ensuring that Tehran has the means to project power wherever its interests are threatened.

Financial and Military Backers of Iran’s Anti-Israel Strategy

Iran’s campaign against Israel is not an isolated endeavor but is supported by a network of state and non-state actors who share Tehran’s antipathy towards Israel or benefit from the regional chaos generated by the conflict. Here are the most prominent backers of Iran’s anti-Israel strategy:

• Syria: The Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has long been one of Iran’s most important allies in the region. The relationship between Iran and Syria dates back to the early years of the Islamic Revolution, and Syria has served as a critical transit hub for Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah. During the Syrian civil war, Iran’s support for Assad helped to stabilize the regime, ensuring that Syria remained a key part of the Axis of Resistance against Israel.
• Russia: While Russia does not share Iran’s ideological commitment to the destruction of Israel, it has been a crucial ally of Tehran, particularly in the Syrian conflict. Moscow’s support for the Assad regime, alongside Iranian forces, has strengthened the partnership between Russia and Iran. Although Russia maintains diplomatic relations with Israel, its broader geopolitical interests align with Iran’s goal of limiting U.S. and Israeli influence in the Middle East.
• Hezbollah: As Iran’s most important proxy, Hezbollah receives significant financial and military backing from Tehran. Iran supplies Hezbollah with advanced weaponry, including missiles, drones, and anti-aircraft systems, while also providing the group with the training and logistical support necessary to maintain its formidable presence in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s financial support comes primarily from Iran, though the group also funds itself through a network of businesses and criminal enterprises in Lebanon and beyond.
• Hamas: Although Hamas is a Sunni Islamist group, it has received financial and military support from Iran for years. Iran’s backing for Hamas is part of its broader strategy to create multiple fronts against Israel. By supporting both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Iran seeks to stretch Israel’s defenses and keep it embroiled in multiple conflicts.
• Shiite Militias in Iraq and Syria: Iranian-backed Shiite militias, such as Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, as well as Syria’s Liwa Fatemiyoun, serve as additional proxies in Iran’s conflict with Israel. These militias have been involved in attacks on Israeli positions in Syria and Iraq, and they provide Iran with the manpower and strategic depth to sustain a long-term conflict with Israel.

Why Does Iran Want to Annihilate Israel?

The roots of Iran’s desire to see the annihilation of Israel lie in a combination of ideological, religious, and geopolitical factors. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has positioned itself as the vanguard of anti-imperialism in the Middle East, framing Israel as a colonial outpost of Western powers and a threat to the Muslim world. This worldview is enshrined in the doctrine of the Islamic Republic, which views opposition to Israel not only as a political stance but as a religious obligation.

Iran’s leaders frequently justify their opposition to Israel by referencing both historical grievances and Islamic teachings. The Palestinian cause has long been a rallying point for Iran’s revolutionary government, and Tehran has consistently framed its support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas as part of a broader effort to liberate Palestine from Israeli occupation.

Geopolitically, Iran’s campaign against Israel serves its ambition to dominate the Middle East and challenge U.S. hegemony in the region. By positioning itself as the leader of the Axis of Resistance, Iran has been able to expand its influence across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Gaza, effectively creating a “Shiite crescent” of allied states and groups surrounding Israel. The annihilation of Israel would not only achieve Iran’s ideological goals but also secure its position as the dominant power in the region.

The Global Stakes of Iran’s Anti-Israel Campaign

As Iran expands its influence throughout the Middle East and beyond, the risks to Israeli citizens and Jewish properties around the world have increased. The death of Hassan Nasrallah marks a new chapter in this long-running conflict, one in which Iran and Hezbollah will likely seek to exact revenge through asymmetrical attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets. Tehran’s strategy, driven by both ideological fervor and pragmatic geopolitical considerations, ensures that the threat to Israel extends far beyond the battlefield, with ramifications for Israeli citizens across the globe.

Date	Country	Type of Attack	Details
March 17, 1992	Argentina	Bombing	Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires was bombed by Hezbollah, killing 29 people.
July 18, 1994	Argentina	Bombing	AMIA Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires bombed, killing 85. Linked to Hezbollah and Iran.
July 12, 2006	Israel-Lebanon	Rocket attacks and ground combat	Hezbollah initiated the 2006 Lebanon War, firing rockets and engaging IDF forces.
July 18, 2012	Bulgaria	Bus bombing	Hezbollah suicide bomber targeted a bus carrying Israeli tourists in Burgas, killing 5 Israelis.
February 13-14, 2012	India, Georgia, Thailand	Foiled bomb plots	Iranian operatives linked to Hezbollah attempted bombings targeting Israeli diplomats in New Delhi, Tbilisi, and Bangkok.
July 7, 2012	Cyprus	Foiled terror plot	Hezbollah operative arrested with 8.2 tons of ammonium nitrate for bomb attacks on Israeli targets.
2014 – Present	Syria	Military confrontations	Hezbollah operatives supported by Iran actively involved in Syrian Civil War, including fighting Israeli forces and conducting cross-border raids.
June 2022	Turkey	Foiled assassination plot	Iranian operatives arrested in Istanbul for plotting to assassinate Israeli tourists.
2008 – 2024	Global	Assassinations, drone and missile attacks	Series of Iranian-led operations targeting Israeli officials and military in various countries including Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.
2000s – Present	Iraq	Attacks by pro-Iran militias	Iranian-backed militias launched rocket attacks against Israeli-affiliated interests, often targeting diplomats and military personnel.

Analytical Breakdown of Tactics:

• Suicide Bombings and Bomb Attacks: This has been a hallmark of Hezbollah’s operations, most notably the bombings in Argentina (1992 and 1994), which targeted Jewish institutions.
• Rocket and Missile Attacks: Hezbollah’s military strategy has heavily relied on firing rockets into northern Israel, as seen during the 2006 Lebanon War and in the ongoing cross-border hostilities.
• Foiled Terror Plots: Throughout the 2010s, Hezbollah and Iranian operatives carried out or attempted numerous attacks targeting Israeli diplomats and civilians abroad, including in Thailand, India, Georgia, and Cyprus.
• Assassination Attempts: Iranian operatives, often linked to Hezbollah, have also attempted or carried out assassinations targeting Israeli officials, particularly in countries like Turkey and Iraq.
• Support for Asymmetric Warfare: In Syria and Iraq, Hezbollah, backed by Iran’s IRGC, has played a critical role in fighting alongside other pro-Iran militias, often targeting Israeli positions in the Golan Heights and elsewhere.

Financial and Strategic Backing:

Iran is the primary financial and military backer of Hezbollah, providing weapons, training, and logistical support. This support is part of Iran’s broader strategy to extend its influence in the Middle East and beyond, often working through proxy forces to carry out asymmetric warfare against Israel without engaging directly. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly the Quds Force, has been instrumental in coordinating these global operations.

These attacks and operations form part of Iran and Hezbollah’s long-term objective to undermine Israel’s security, often leveraging global locations and international networks to carry out their objectives.

Comprehensive Analysis of Hezbollah’s Activities and Engagement in Europe

Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia Islamist political and militant organization based in Lebanon, has long been involved in various political and militant activities across the Middle East. However, its activities are not confined to the region. Over the years, Hezbollah has extended its reach into Europe, primarily focusing on fundraising, logistics, intelligence gathering, and influencing political and public opinion. Europe, with its large Lebanese diaspora, has provided Hezbollah a fertile ground for fundraising, political lobbying, and building support for its cause. Hezbollah has been involved in both overt political activities and covert operations in the region.

Hezbollah’s Presence and Activities in Europe

Political Lobbying and Diplomatic Meetings

Though Hezbollah’s military wing is classified as a terrorist organization by many Western countries, including the European Union, its political wing often operates more freely, especially in countries that recognize Hezbollah as a legitimate political actor in Lebanon. This distinction allows Hezbollah to maintain relationships with some European politicians, political parties, and diplomats sympathetic to its anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian stances.

• European Political Sympathizers: Hezbollah’s political activities in Europe have often centered around garnering support from pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel political factions. In several countries, particularly in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy, Hezbollah has aligned itself with politicians and political movements critical of Israel. In these instances, the group positions itself as part of a broader pro-Palestinian resistance, leveraging sympathies for the Palestinian cause to cultivate support among leftist and anti-war political organizations. These politicians and public figures often support Hezbollah’s narrative without necessarily endorsing its militant activities.
• Meetings with European Politicians: Although direct meetings between senior Hezbollah officials and Western politicians are rare due to legal and diplomatic constraints, intermediaries often engage with European political figures. Hezbollah uses sympathizers in Lebanon’s political scene or European-based Lebanese individuals who have pro-Hezbollah leanings. These intermediaries serve as conduits between Hezbollah and European political factions. In countries like Belgium and Italy, where Hezbollah enjoys some level of political support within local Lebanese communities, representatives from Hezbollah-affiliated parties have engaged with politicians advocating for dialogue with the group.
• Hezbollah and Hamas Cooperation in Europe: A significant aspect of Hezbollah’s political activities in Europe involves cooperation with Hamas, another militant group backed by Iran. Hezbollah often supports Hamas diplomatically, and both organizations have engaged in shared public relations efforts to rally support for the Palestinian cause. In this context, many pro-Palestinian conferences and events in Europe have seen speakers and representatives from both Hezbollah and Hamas, blurring the lines between their political and militant activities. For instance, various conferences in Paris, London, and Berlin have featured speeches by individuals closely affiliated with Hezbollah, though not always openly acknowledged as such.

Fundraising and Financial Networks

One of the most crucial aspects of Hezbollah’s European operations is its extensive fundraising network. Using a variety of means, including charities, businesses, and even criminal enterprises, Hezbollah has successfully raised millions of dollars to fund its political and military activities. These funds are primarily used to support Hezbollah’s military operations in Lebanon, Syria, and beyond.

• Lebanese Diaspora Fundraising: Hezbollah relies heavily on the Lebanese Shia diaspora in Europe to raise funds. Fundraising events often occur under the guise of charity for Lebanese causes or political support for Hezbollah’s political faction in Lebanon. These events have taken place in cities such as Paris, Berlin, and London, where Hezbollah-linked charities hold fundraising dinners, often featuring speakers from the Lebanese political scene.
• Criminal Networks: Hezbollah has been linked to various criminal networks across Europe, particularly in drug trafficking and money laundering operations. Law enforcement agencies in Germany, France, and Spain have uncovered Hezbollah-linked drug trafficking and money laundering rings that funnel profits back to the group in Lebanon. These operations are often part of Hezbollah’s larger effort to finance its activities in the face of sanctions and international pressure.
• Charity Organizations: Several charity organizations in Europe have been identified as fronts for Hezbollah. For example, the Martyrs Foundation and the Islamic Resistance Support Association have been linked to Hezbollah’s fundraising efforts in Europe. These organizations claim to raise funds for social and humanitarian causes in Lebanon, but intelligence and law enforcement reports indicate that much of this money is redirected to Hezbollah’s military operations.

Key Conferences, Speeches, and Public Engagements in Europe

Hezbollah officials and proxies often participate in pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel conferences across Europe. These events provide a platform for Hezbollah and its allies to present their political narrative, often blurring the distinction between political advocacy and support for militant activities. Below are some notable examples of such engagements:

• Al-Quds Day Rallies: Al-Quds Day, an annual event held in many European cities to express solidarity with Palestinians and oppose Israel, has been a key event for Hezbollah sympathizers in Europe. Held in cities like London, Berlin, and Paris, these rallies often feature speeches by Hezbollah-affiliated individuals and are sometimes attended by Hezbollah sympathizers and representatives. While Hezbollah leaders do not openly attend these events, their influence is often evident in the speeches and the rhetoric expressed.In 2019, the Al-Quds Day rally in London was particularly controversial, with participants openly waving Hezbollah flags. The British government subsequently outlawed the display of Hezbollah’s symbols at such events, citing concerns over the group’s terrorist activities. Similar rallies in Berlin have been banned or restricted due to their ties to Hezbollah.
• International Conferences on Palestinian Solidarity: Various international conferences on Palestinian solidarity, often hosted in cities like Brussels, Geneva, and Paris, have included speakers closely linked to Hezbollah or its political allies. These conferences serve as platforms for anti-Israel advocacy and often feature Hezbollah sympathizers or representatives from Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets like Al-Manar. For instance, some conferences organized by pro-Palestinian groups in Paris have featured individuals with known Hezbollah connections, although the group’s involvement is usually downplayed to avoid legal repercussions.
• Academic and Political Seminars: Hezbollah-linked academics and political analysts have participated in academic seminars and political conferences across Europe, often discussing Middle Eastern politics, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Hezbollah’s role in the region. For example, in 2017, a seminar held in Brussels on the future of the Middle East featured a keynote speech by an academic closely tied to Hezbollah. While the speaker did not openly acknowledge ties to the group, their affiliation with Hezbollah was widely known within political circles.
• Paris International Forum (2018): A notable event took place in Paris in 2018, when an international forum on Middle Eastern politics included speeches by figures linked to Hezbollah and Hamas. This forum, while nominally focused on regional peace efforts, included several presentations that indirectly supported Hezbollah’s anti-Israel rhetoric. The event was controversial, drawing criticism from pro-Israel organizations and raising concerns about the legitimacy of allowing Hezbollah-linked individuals to participate in international diplomatic forums.

Hezbollah’s Use of Front Organizations

Hezbollah often operates through front organizations, particularly in Europe, where its military activities are closely monitored and restricted. These front organizations allow Hezbollah to continue raising funds, conducting political advocacy, and spreading its ideology without directly associating with the group’s militant wing. Examples of such organizations include Islamic cultural centers, charity organizations, and even certain academic institutions with ties to Hezbollah’s social and political apparatus.

• Islamic Cultural Centers: Several Islamic cultural centers in Europe have been linked to Hezbollah, particularly in Germany and France. These centers often serve as gathering points for Hezbollah sympathizers and provide a platform for the group’s ideological messages to be disseminated. While the centers publicly focus on religious and cultural activities, intelligence reports have linked them to fundraising efforts for Hezbollah’s operations in Lebanon.
• Pro-Palestinian NGOs: Pro-Palestinian NGOs, particularly those operating in France, Belgium, and the UK, have also been used by Hezbollah as platforms for advocacy and fundraising. These NGOs often operate in the gray area of supporting the Palestinian cause while indirectly aligning with Hezbollah’s broader political agenda.

Hezbollah’s Strategic Engagement in Europe

Hezbollah’s activities in Europe are characterized by a complex mix of political advocacy, fundraising, and covert operations. While its leaders, including Hashem Safieddine, have largely avoided public and official appearances in Europe, Hezbollah continues to exert significant influence through intermediaries, sympathizers, and affiliated organizations. Its cooperation with other Iran-backed groups like Hamas allows Hezbollah to participate in a broader pro-Palestinian resistance narrative, often cloaked in the legitimacy of humanitarian or political causes.

The group’s fundraising activities, particularly within the Lebanese diaspora and through charity organizations, remain critical to its ability to sustain military operations in the Middle East. Despite increased scrutiny and legal restrictions across Europe, Hezbollah continues to adapt its strategies, utilizing a combination of political lobbying, cultural diplomacy, and covert operations to further its agenda.

As European governments tighten their restrictions on Hezbollah’s activities, the organization’s methods of engagement will likely become even more covert, relying on proxies and front organizations to maintain its influence. Europe remains a key battleground for Hezbollah’s diplomatic and financial efforts, even as its military activities are curtailed by international pressure.

Turkey’s Strategic Maneuvering in the Middle East After Nasrallah’s Death on September 27, 2024

Nasrallah’s Death and the Power Vacuum in the Middle East

On September 27, 2024, Israel’s targeted airstrike killed Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, marking a major shift in the balance of power within Lebanon and the broader Middle East. The power vacuum created by Nasrallah’s death presents opportunities for both regional players and external actors, including Turkey. Under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has demonstrated an increasing willingness to assert its influence across the Middle East. In this volatile environment, Turkey may seek to leverage the chaos in Lebanon and the broader conflict between Hezbollah and Israel to expand its geopolitical footprint.

Turkey’s Geopolitical Goals in the Region

Turkey’s Regional Aspirations

Turkey has long aimed to position itself as a key power broker in the Middle East, a strategy driven by a combination of economic, political, and ideological interests. Erdoğan’s government has pursued a Neo-Ottoman foreign policy, seeking to revitalize Turkey’s influence across former Ottoman territories, particularly in the Levant, North Africa, and the Eastern Mediterranean.

• Political Influence: Turkey views Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq as critical to extending its influence across the Arab world. The power vacuum in Lebanon could offer an opportunity to support factions or political movements sympathetic to Ankara’s interests.
• Economic Interests: Turkey is highly dependent on energy imports, and securing influence over strategic locations like Lebanon, which borders the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas fields, could bolster Ankara’s energy security.
• Strategic Control: By gaining influence in Lebanon and Iraq, Turkey would have the capability to counterbalance rivals such as Iran and Israel, while simultaneously exerting influence on regional security and diplomatic negotiations.

Turkey’s Stance Towards Israel

Historically, Turkey’s relationship with Israel has been a complex mix of cooperation and conflict. Turkey recognized Israel in 1949 and maintained cordial relations until the late 2000s. However, Erdoğan’s government has increasingly adopted an antagonistic stance towards Israel, particularly over the Palestinian issue, leading to multiple diplomatic rifts. Following the 2021 Gaza conflict and Erdoğan’s frequent criticisms of Israeli policies, relations have further deteriorated.

In the context of Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel, Turkey sees an opportunity to assert itself as a protector of the Palestinian cause and a champion of Muslim-majority countries against Israeli “aggression.” Erdoğan has consistently used anti-Israel rhetoric to bolster his political base domestically and appeal to Muslim-majority countries internationally.

Turkey’s Political Strategies Amid Lebanon’s Chaos

Filling the Power Vacuum in Lebanon

Turkey could use the chaos in Lebanon to establish new alliances and expand its influence over the country’s Sunni and Druze populations, which historically have had a difficult relationship with Hezbollah and its Shia base. Turkey could:

• Strengthen Relations with Lebanese Sunnis: Turkey already has historical ties with Lebanon’s Sunni communities, which form a significant portion of the country’s population. With the death of Nasrallah, Turkey may work to support Sunni political factions to counterbalance Hezbollah’s dominance in Lebanese politics.
• Economic Aid and Infrastructure Investment: Turkey could use its economic leverage to provide much-needed aid and infrastructure investments to Lebanon, especially as the country faces severe economic crises. This would allow Turkey to gain favor with key political actors and communities, expanding its soft power in the region.
• Military and Intelligence Collaboration: Turkey could offer military assistance or intelligence collaboration with Lebanese factions opposed to Hezbollah, possibly positioning itself as a counterbalance to Hezbollah’s influence.

Alignment with Iran and Hezbollah

Despite its complex relationship with Iran, Turkey has increasingly cooperated with Tehran on mutual strategic interests. Both countries are regional powers with aspirations to counterbalance U.S. and Israeli influence in the Middle East. The chaos in Lebanon presents an opportunity for Turkey and Iran to collaborate, particularly in opposing Israeli military operations and policies.

• Strategic Collaboration with Iran: Turkey could deepen its cooperation with Iran by aligning on a shared anti-Israel platform. While they have competing interests in Syria, both countries could find common ground in supporting Hezbollah’s retaliation against Israel and opposing U.S.-Israeli regional hegemony.
• Military and Tactical Cooperation: If Hezbollah’s military wing seeks to reorganize after Nasrallah’s death, Turkey could explore limited military or logistical support. This might come in the form of covert intelligence sharing or arms shipments to factions aligned with Hezbollah that are willing to operate under Turkey’s strategic umbrella.

Diplomacy with Regional Players

Turkey’s broader regional strategy will also include complex diplomatic engagements with key players such as Russia, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, all of whom have vested interests in Lebanon and the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.

• Russia: Turkey maintains a delicate balancing act with Russia, especially concerning Syria. By asserting influence in Lebanon, Turkey could position itself as an indispensable actor in broader regional negotiations that involve Russian interests in Syria and Lebanon.
• Qatar and the Gulf: Qatar has often aligned with Turkey on key regional issues. Both countries could jointly support Lebanese factions or groups that are opposed to Israeli policies and favor a more robust pro-Palestinian stance.
• Saudi Arabia: While relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been strained, the ongoing power struggle in Lebanon might present an opportunity for both countries to collaborate. Saudi Arabia, wary of Iran’s influence in Lebanon, might find it advantageous to cooperate with Turkey to counterbalance Tehran’s power.

The Pole of Resistance Against Israel: Turkey’s Role in Aligning with Iran and Hezbollah

Turkey has historically positioned itself as an adversary to Israeli policies, particularly those related to the occupation of Palestinian territories. In the aftermath of Nasrallah’s death, Turkey could align itself more closely with the “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Palestinian militant groups that oppose Israel. While Turkey has not officially joined this axis, recent years have seen a notable shift in its rhetoric and policies towards Israel.

Diplomatic and Strategic Support for Hezbollah

While Turkey has never provided direct military support to Hezbollah, the current situation may change. Turkey could offer diplomatic support at international forums, condemning Israel’s actions and providing political cover for Hezbollah’s operations. This would serve Turkey’s interest in positioning itself as a leading voice against Israeli military actions, particularly in the Arab and Muslim world.

Coordinating Anti-Israel Actions

Given its expanding influence in Syria, Turkey could facilitate coordination between Iranian-backed forces and Hezbollah to launch operations against Israeli targets. This would serve to pressure Israel on multiple fronts—through Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria—forcing it to divide its military resources.

• Iran-Turkey Coordination: Turkey might deepen its tactical cooperation with Iran regarding military operations against Israeli assets, particularly by facilitating arms transfers or providing strategic guidance to Hezbollah militants still operating in Lebanon.

Turkey’s Future Direction and Long-Term Goals

Turkey’s broader Middle Eastern policy is driven by a desire to assert its autonomy and influence in the region, counterbalance its rivals, and enhance its position as a leader of the Muslim world. The chaos created by Nasrallah’s death offers Turkey an opportunity to:

• Expand its geopolitical influence: Through economic, political, and military engagements in Lebanon, Turkey can reassert its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean and further its goal of becoming a regional hegemon.
• Challenge Israeli dominance: By aligning more closely with anti-Israel factions like Hezbollah and Iran, Turkey can consolidate its position as a key actor in the opposition to Israeli policies, particularly in the context of the Palestinian issue.
• Strengthen its regional alliances: Turkey could use this moment to build stronger ties with Iran and other members of the anti-Israel axis, while also navigating complex relationships with countries like Russia and Qatar to maximize its strategic gains.

Turkey’s Calculated Moves in a Shifting Middle East

As of September 28, 2024, Turkey finds itself in a position to exploit the chaos following Nasrallah’s death and the broader conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. By leveraging its historical ties, regional alliances, and growing military capabilities, Turkey is likely to pursue a strategy of deeper involvement in Lebanon, closer coordination with Iran, and a more pronounced opposition to Israel. This strategy aligns with Erdoğan’s vision of a Turkey that is not only a regional power but a protector of Muslim interests in the face of Israeli actions.

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