ABSTRACT
The purpose of this article is to unravel the intricate motivations and strategies underpinning Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy, particularly through the lens of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership. At its core, this research delves into the challenges and ambitions driving Ankara’s geopolitical decisions, shedding light on the complexity of Turkey’s role in an increasingly fragmented and volatile global order. By contextualizing the Kurdish issue, regional alliances, and Turkey’s economic strategies within Erdoğan’s broader vision, the analysis explores a central question: What is the underlying purpose of Erdoğan’s policies, and how do they shape Turkey’s position as a pivotal regional power?
The narrative is built upon a thorough examination of Erdoğan’s actions and rhetoric, situating them within a framework of pragmatic adaptability and long-term strategic ambition. Central to this story is Erdoğan’s dual approach to reasserting Turkey’s historical influence and consolidating his political dominance. This involves recalibrating Turkey’s identity to merge Islamic values with nationalist pride, redefining its geopolitical alliances, and reshaping its domestic political landscape. The research emphasizes how Erdoğan’s policies reflect a calculated effort to position Turkey as a leader in a multipolar world while simultaneously securing his authority in a politically polarized domestic environment.
Among the key findings is Erdoğan’s reliance on leveraging Turkey’s strategic geography and cultural heritage to project influence across former Ottoman territories. The dismantling of the secular, Western-aligned foreign policy paradigm established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk emerges as a cornerstone of this vision. Erdoğan’s engagement in the Middle East, exemplified by military interventions in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, reveals a broader agenda of securing borders, neutralizing perceived threats, and shaping post-conflict governance structures. His support for political Islam, coupled with symbolic actions like the conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque, underscores his intent to forge a cohesive identity that resonates with both domestic and pan-Islamic audiences.
Economically, Erdoğan’s policies showcase a blend of growth-oriented initiatives and authoritarian control. Large-scale infrastructure projects, unorthodox monetary policies, and state-driven economic interventions are utilized not only to bolster Turkey’s development but also to reinforce political loyalty. The prioritization of short-term stability over economic fundamentals reflects a strategy aimed at minimizing opposition and maintaining social cohesion in the face of mounting economic challenges. This approach intertwines domestic economic pressures with Turkey’s regional ambitions, as seen in its efforts to stabilize northern Syria for refugee repatriation.
The Kurdish issue emerges as a central theme, highlighting Erdoğan’s oscillation between reconciliation and securitization. Early efforts at dialogue have given way to intensified military campaigns and political marginalization, reflecting a dual strategy aimed at both suppressing separatist movements and exploiting divisions within Kurdish factions. Regionally, this involves dismantling Kurdish autonomy in Syria and Iraq, aligning with Ankara’s broader goal of maintaining territorial integrity while countering narratives of separatism.
Internationally, Erdoğan’s policies demonstrate a push for “strategic autonomy,” as evidenced by Turkey’s diversified alliances with Russia, China, and other non-Western powers. This approach seeks to reduce dependence on traditional partners like NATO and the United States while enhancing Turkey’s leverage in global affairs. Actions such as acquiring Russian missile systems and participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative illustrate this strategic pivot. Simultaneously, Erdoğan positions Turkey as a voice for marginalized nations, advocating for reforms in global institutions and critiquing Western dominance.
The analysis concludes that Erdoğan’s real purpose is to secure Turkey’s status as a dominant regional power and a key player in global politics, all while ensuring his political survival. His adaptable and pragmatic approach allows him to navigate an increasingly polarized international environment, balancing the aspirations of a resurgent Turkey with the realities of economic and political challenges. This vision intertwines Turkey’s domestic transformations with its external ambitions, crafting a narrative of resurgence that positions the country at the crossroads of tradition and modernity, regional leadership, and global relevance. Through this lens, Erdoğan’s policies are not merely reactive but part of a grand strategy aimed at shaping Turkey’s future in an interconnected and competitive world.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Purpose of Erdoğan’s Policies | The overarching goal of Erdoğan’s policies is to position Turkey as a dominant regional power while ensuring political survival. This includes consolidating domestic control, addressing internal vulnerabilities, and redefining Turkey’s geopolitical role in a multipolar world. His strategy intertwines domestic, regional, and international ambitions, leveraging Turkey’s geography, cultural heritage, and economic potential to achieve long-term dominance and influence. His policies aim to secure both Turkey’s sovereignty and his political authority. |
| Reassertion of Turkey’s Influence | Erdoğan emphasizes a neo-Ottomanist vision to reassert Turkey’s historical and cultural significance. This includes redefining the nation’s identity by merging Islamic values with nationalist pride, distancing Turkey from the secular, Western-aligned policies of Atatürk. Through symbolic acts such as converting Hagia Sophia into a mosque, Erdoğan seeks to galvanize nationalistic and religious sentiments, reinforcing Turkey’s leadership role in the Islamic world while appealing to domestic constituencies. |
| Domestic Control and Stability | Domestically, Erdoğan has pursued policies aimed at consolidating his authority through centralization of power and suppression of dissent. This includes expanding the presidency’s powers, restricting media freedoms, and using large-scale infrastructure projects to reinforce political loyalty among elites and the electorate. His unorthodox economic measures, such as low-interest rates despite high inflation, prioritize short-term stability over economic fundamentals, maintaining social cohesion and ensuring continued political control. |
| Geopolitical Strategy | Erdoğan has adopted a proactive foreign policy approach characterized by “strategic autonomy.” This includes diversifying alliances beyond NATO to strengthen ties with Russia and China. For example, the acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems and participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative demonstrate Turkey’s intent to reduce reliance on Western powers. This strategy allows Turkey to expand its leverage on global platforms, challenge traditional alliances, and assert independence in its foreign policy. |
| Military Interventions | Turkey’s military engagements in Syria, Iraq, and Libya reflect a dual objective: securing borders against perceived threats like the PKK and its affiliates and expanding Turkey’s sphere of influence. These interventions aim to neutralize Kurdish militancy, shape governance structures in post-conflict regions, and secure access to strategic resources. Erdoğan’s support for political Islam and alliances with groups like the Muslim Brotherhood underscore his intent to extend ideological influence across the Middle East while countering regional adversaries. |
| Economic Policies | Erdoğan has pursued ambitious infrastructure projects, including bridges, airports, and energy pipelines, to portray Turkey as a modern, economically powerful state. These projects serve both developmental and political purposes, reinforcing patronage networks and loyalty among business elites. Despite criticism of his monetary policies, such as low-interest rates amid inflation, Erdoğan uses these measures to maintain short-term economic stability, ensuring that economic dissatisfaction does not erode his political base. |
| Kurdish Issue Management | Erdoğan’s approach to the Kurdish question combines suppression and co-optation. Domestically, he marginalizes pro-Kurdish political movements and intensifies military operations in Kurdish-majority regions. Regionally, he aims to dismantle Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria and Iraq, aligning with Ankara’s goal of maintaining territorial integrity. This dual strategy reflects a balance between addressing separatist narratives and exploiting divisions within Kurdish factions, ensuring Turkey’s dominance over the issue while minimizing external interference. |
| Symbolic Actions for Identity | Erdoğan leverages symbolic acts to reshape Turkey’s national identity. The conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque exemplifies his effort to merge Islamic values with nationalism, signaling a departure from Turkey’s secular traditions. These actions aim to consolidate domestic support by appealing to religious and nationalist sentiments, reinforcing Erdoğan’s vision of a culturally unified and geopolitically assertive Turkey. |
| Relations with Global Powers | Erdoğan’s relationship with global powers is marked by pragmatism and a willingness to challenge established norms. While maintaining NATO membership, Turkey has pursued closer ties with Russia and China to assert independence from Western influence. Simultaneously, Erdoğan critiques Western dominance in global institutions, advocating for reforms to create a more equitable global order. His active participation in multilateral platforms, such as the G20, underscores Turkey’s aspiration to be a key player in shaping international politics. |
| Regional Alliances and Rivalries | In the Middle East, Erdoğan seeks to expand Turkey’s influence by aligning with political Islam while countering regional adversaries. Support for groups like the Muslim Brotherhood reflects his ambition to influence ideological currents, while interventions in Libya and Syria demonstrate a strategic intent to secure Turkey’s position as a regional powerbroker. However, these actions often bring Turkey into direct conflict with competing regional powers like Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, complicating its pursuit of dominance. |
| Economic and Refugee Linkage | The prolonged conflict in Syria has placed significant economic strain on Turkey, particularly in regions hosting large refugee populations. Erdoğan’s policies link the stabilization and development of northern Syria with the voluntary repatriation of refugees, aiming to alleviate domestic pressures while enhancing Turkey’s role in regional reconstruction. These efforts highlight the interplay between economic considerations and geopolitical ambitions, underscoring Turkey’s intent to use development as a tool for influence. |
| Ultimate Vision | Erdoğan’s overarching vision is to position Turkey as a dominant regional leader and a key global power. This involves balancing domestic transformation with external ambitions, redefining Turkey’s role in an increasingly multipolar world. His policies reflect a grand strategy that integrates historical, cultural, economic, and military dimensions to craft a narrative of resurgence, aiming to secure Turkey’s place at the forefront of regional and international politics. |
Snow has fallen on the mountains you dreamed of. This evocative Turkish saying captures the paradox of achieving long-sought goals only to confront unforeseen challenges. Such is Turkey’s current predicament in the aftermath of the dramatic overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria. While Ankara may rejoice at the potential to reshape regional dynamics—reducing Russian and Iranian influence, curbing the Kurdish presence along its borders, and paving the way for the repatriation of millions of Syrian refugees—these developments introduce significant complexities. The intricate web of domestic, regional, and international factors, particularly regarding the Kurdish issue, places Turkey at a crossroads of profound uncertainty.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Overall Context | Turkey stands at a pivotal moment following the overthrow of the Assad regime. While this development aligns with Ankara’s long-term strategic goals of reducing Russian and Iranian influence, dismantling Kurdish autonomy, and facilitating the return of over four million Syrian refugees, it also exacerbates existing challenges. The Kurdish question has intensified, intertwining Turkey’s domestic political stability, security concerns, and regional ambitions, demanding a comprehensive strategy to address these interconnected complexities. |
| Current Kurdish Dynamics | The Kurdish question is deeply embedded in Turkey’s identity, security policy, and international positioning. Historically oscillating between reconciliation and securitization, the issue has entered a critical phase with Syria’s transitional government under Mohammed al Sharraa. While Ankara seeks alignment on curbing Kurdish militancy, the divergence in objectives creates uncertainties. The lack of clear coordination between Turkish and Syrian goals heightens the risk of renewed instability and conflict in border regions. |
| Devlet Bahçeli’s Initiative | In a surprising move, Devlet Bahçeli, the ultranationalist leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), called for normalization with Kurdish leadership, including the PKK, which is classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S., and other countries. President Erdoğan cautiously supported this shift, distinguishing between Kurdish communities and militant factions. The move reflects political pragmatism amid Turkey’s economic struggles, a weakened ruling coalition, and declining electoral support, aiming to expand political influence while navigating nationalist sentiments. |
| Historical Attempts | Turkey’s attempts at resolving the Kurdish issue date back decades. The 2009 “Kurdish Opening” initiative aimed to foster reconciliation through dialogue and cultural recognition. However, the peace process collapsed in 2015, leading to intensified violence and “trench wars” in southeastern Turkey. The Syrian civil war further complicated matters, as Kurdish militias gained influence near Turkey’s borders. Current reconciliation efforts mirror past initiatives but occur in a drastically altered geopolitical landscape following Assad’s fall and heightened international involvement. |
| Complex Kurdish Electorate | The Kurdish electorate is fragmented, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Erdoğan’s strategy. Key groups include: – Progressive Kurds: Aligned with Öcalan and the HDP, this segment advocates for minority rights and leftist ideologies. – Conservative Kurds: Historically supportive of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), many are now disillusioned due to increased securitization policies.\n Erdoğan seeks to exploit these divisions by courting moderates and conservatives while maintaining support from his nationalist voter base, leveraging the political fragmentation to his advantage. |
| October 2024 PKK Attack | A PKK-linked terrorist attack targeted TUSAŞ, a leading Turkish defense contractor, in Ankara, escalating tensions. The government responded with: – Political measures: Dismissal of pro-Kurdish mayors and appointment of trustees in Kurdish-majority municipalities. – Military action: Intensified operations in southeastern Turkey to suppress militancy. While these measures reinforced nationalist support, they risk further alienating Kurdish communities, diminishing trust, and undermining long-term reconciliation efforts. Ankara’s prioritization of immediate security highlights the difficulty of balancing political and military responses. |
| Regional Implications | The overthrow of Assad’s regime presents both opportunities and challenges for Turkey. Ankara’s objectives include: – Neutralizing Kurdish militancy in northern Syria and dismantling the so-called “Kurdish terrorist corridor.” – Stabilizing border regions to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. – Rebuilding regional influence in Syria through collaboration with the transitional government.\n However, Kurdish factions’ strengthened ties with international actors, such as the U.S., and fragmented militancy complicate these efforts, forcing Ankara to carefully navigate its regional strategy. |
| U.S.-Turkey Relations | Strained relations with the U.S. persist due to Washington’s support for Kurdish groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey associates with the PKK. The return of Donald Trump introduces mixed implications: – Opportunities: Trump’s previous withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria allowed Turkey greater operational freedom. – Challenges: Appointments of Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, both vocal critics of Turkey, could complicate diplomatic efforts. Ankara seeks to leverage Trump’s presidency to expand its influence while managing tensions over Kurdish support and broader U.S.-Turkey relations. |
| Iraqi Dynamics | Turkey’s engagement with Iraq is critical for addressing the PKK threat. Efforts include: – Diplomatic pressure: Urging Baghdad to classify the PKK as a terrorist organization. – Proposed collaboration: Advocating for a regional security conference involving Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. – Key ally: Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), plays a pivotal role in aligning efforts. However, internal divisions within Iraqi Kurdistan, coupled with competing interests among regional actors, hinder progress toward a unified stance against PKK-affiliated groups operating in Iraq. |
| Internal PKK Fragmentation | Divisions within the PKK reflect ideological and tactical disagreements: – Non-violence faction: Advocates for a political solution, aligning with Öcalan’s call for dialogue. – Militant factions: Favor continued armed resistance, complicating unified approaches to negotiations. – Regional autonomy: PKK affiliates in Syria and Iraq operate semi-independently, creating further fragmentation. This disunity undermines comprehensive negotiation efforts and complicates Ankara’s ability to address the Kurdish question effectively on both domestic and regional fronts. |
| Broader Geopolitical Impacts | The Kurdish issue remains central to Turkey’s domestic policies and its broader Middle Eastern strategy. Key impacts include: – Fragmented Kurdish groups: The lack of unity among Kurdish political and military entities complicates resolution efforts. – International leverage: External powers like the U.S., Russia, and Iran use Kurdish factions to advance their strategic goals, often at Turkey’s expense. – Turkey’s aspirations: Successfully addressing the Kurdish question is crucial for Ankara’s regional leadership ambitions, societal cohesion, and its positioning in global geopolitics. |
The fall of Bashar al-Assad has amplified the longstanding Kurdish question, a matter deeply embedded in Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy. For decades, the Kurdish issue has oscillated between periods of uneasy reconciliation and intense securitization. With the Syrian transition now unfolding under Mohammed al Sharraa, Turkey faces the dual challenge of fostering regional stability while addressing its internal Kurdish dynamics. The Turkish Foreign Ministry’s recent statement, suggesting non-intervention if Syria’s transitional government adequately addresses Kurdish militancy, underscores Ankara’s cautious optimism. Yet, the overlap between Turkish and Syrian objectives regarding pro-Kurdish groups remains tenuous, fueling fears of renewed instability.
In October 2024, a surprising gesture emerged from an unlikely source. Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party, called for normalization with Kurdish leadership, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). This conciliatory tone was echoed, albeit cautiously, by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who differentiated between “Kurdish brothers” and “terrorists.” These overtures raised eyebrows, especially given Bahçeli’s staunchly anti-Kurdish stance and the PKK’s designation as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and several other nations. Yet, the context—marked by a deteriorating economic situation and a weakened ruling coalition—suggests political pragmatism may be driving this apparent pivot.
This is not the first time Turkey has attempted to address the Kurdish question. The “Kurdish Opening” initiative launched in 2009 sought to build bridges through dialogue and cultural recognition. However, the collapse of the peace process in 2015 marked a return to entrenched hostilities. The ensuing years saw a surge in “trench wars” in southeastern Turkey and heightened tensions fueled by the spillover effects of the Syrian civil war. Today, nearly a decade later, Erdoğan’s administration appears to be revisiting these efforts, albeit under vastly different circumstances.
The Kurdish electorate, far from homogenous, presents a multifaceted challenge for Erdoğan’s strategy. The People’s Equality and Democracy Party (HDP), with its progressive platform and ties to Öcalan’s leadership, represents one segment. Another consists of conservative Kurdish groups, some of which have historically supported Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). Bridging these divides while maintaining the support of nationalist constituencies is a formidable task. Reports suggest Erdoğan aims to exploit these internal divisions, courting more moderate Kurdish factions without alienating his core base.
In October 2024, a PKK-linked attack in Ankara targeting TUSAŞ, a key player in Turkey’s defense industry, prompted a swift and severe response. This included the dismissal of pro-Kurdish mayors, the imposition of government-appointed trustees, and increased military operations in southeastern Turkey. While these measures resonate with nationalist sentiments, they risk further alienating Kurdish communities and undermining prospects for reconciliation.
Turkey’s approach to the Kurdish issue also reflects its regional ambitions. The toppling of Assad and the rise of a transitional government in Syria offer opportunities to reshape the regional balance. However, they also exacerbate challenges related to Kurdish militancy. Ankara’s longstanding goal of dismantling the “Kurdish terrorist corridor” necessitates careful navigation of its relationships with Syrian factions, Iraqi authorities, and broader international actors.
At the international level, Ankara’s calculus is influenced by shifting dynamics among major powers. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, coupled with his previous administration’s withdrawal from Syria, creates both opportunities and uncertainties for Turkey. While Trump’s presidency could grant Ankara greater leeway for military operations, the appointments of figures like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz—known for their critical views on Turkey—complicate this equation. Additionally, Washington’s support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and People’s Protection Units (YPG) remains a sticking point in U.S.-Turkey relations.
Erdoğan’s strategy also extends to Iraq, where efforts to label the PKK as a terrorist organization have yet to yield concrete results. Recent initiatives to convene a regional security conference involving Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria signal potential avenues for collaboration. The role of Iraqi Kurdistan’s leadership, particularly President Nechirvan Barzani, could be pivotal in facilitating dialogue and addressing shared concerns.
Despite these efforts, the Kurdish issue’s intractability stems from deeply rooted historical, social, and political factors. Internally, divisions within the PKK—between those adhering to Öcalan’s call for non-violence and factions favoring continued militancy—complicate efforts for a unified approach. Regionally, the fragmented nature of Kurdish political and military entities further challenges Ankara’s attempts to navigate this complex landscape.
Ultimately, the Kurdish question remains a central axis shaping Turkey’s domestic policies, regional strategies, and international relations. The interplay of these dimensions underscores the difficulty of crafting a coherent and sustainable solution. As Ankara grapples with this multifaceted challenge, the stakes extend beyond its borders, influencing the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.
Geopolitical Transformations and Turkey’s Strategic Dilemmas: The Kurdish Conundrum in Post-Assad Syria
In the evolving geopolitical landscape shaped by the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, Turkey finds itself navigating a labyrinth of unprecedented challenges and opportunities. The vacuum created in Syria has altered the power dynamics of the region, compelling Ankara to recalibrate its strategy across multiple dimensions. These shifts underscore the intricate and multifaceted dilemmas confronting Turkey, particularly in its efforts to address the enduring complexities of the Kurdish question within an increasingly fragmented and volatile Middle East.
The post-Assad power transition has introduced a delicate balancing act for Turkey, requiring precision in diplomacy and pragmatism in action. Syria’s transitional administration, led by Mohammed al Sharraa, represents a fragile coalition of disparate factions with conflicting agendas. While Ankara seeks to assert its influence in shaping this new government, its objectives remain constrained by the diverse interests of regional and international stakeholders. These dynamics further exacerbate Turkey’s long-standing concerns regarding Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, particularly the consolidation of power by groups such as the Syrian Democratic Forces, whose affiliations with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party continue to be a focal point of Ankara’s security strategy.
The complexity of Turkey’s position is magnified by the broader regional interplay involving neighboring states such as Iraq and Iran. Iraq’s central government and its semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government exhibit divergent stances on the PKK and its regional affiliates. These disparities hinder the formation of a cohesive regional policy to counter Kurdish militancy, leaving Ankara to pursue bilateral agreements and unilateral actions to safeguard its interests. Similarly, Iran’s strategic alliances with various Kurdish factions complicate Turkey’s efforts to isolate militant groups, creating an intricate web of competing influences that challenge Ankara’s diplomatic efficacy.
Turkey’s engagement with the evolving Syrian landscape extends beyond security concerns to encompass broader socio-political and economic dimensions. The reconstruction of northern Syria, a region devastated by years of conflict, has emerged as a critical priority for Ankara. By investing in infrastructure development and humanitarian aid, Turkey aims to solidify its role as a stabilizing force while facilitating the voluntary return of Syrian refugees. However, this strategy is fraught with risks, including potential clashes with local governance structures and international opposition to Turkish influence in the region. These factors underscore the precariousness of Ankara’s approach, which must reconcile its aspirations for regional leadership with the realities of a fragmented and contested political environment.
On the international stage, Turkey’s position is further complicated by the strategic maneuvers of global powers such as the United States and Russia. The U.S., under the returning Trump administration, continues to prioritize its alliances with Kurdish groups in Syria as part of its broader counterterrorism framework. This policy remains a source of contention in U.S.-Turkey relations, as Ankara perceives these alliances as an existential threat to its sovereignty and security. Russia, meanwhile, leverages its role as a key player in Syrian reconstruction efforts to assert influence over regional dynamics, often at odds with Turkish interests. These competing agendas highlight the intricate calculus required for Turkey to navigate its relationships with these superpowers while advancing its own objectives.
The economic dimensions of Turkey’s regional strategy cannot be understated. The prolonged conflict in Syria and its spillover effects have placed significant strains on Turkey’s economy, particularly in regions hosting large populations of Syrian refugees. Efforts to repatriate these individuals are intrinsically tied to Ankara’s broader objectives in Syria, as the stability and development of northern regions are prerequisites for successful reintegration. This linkage underscores the interdependence of Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy considerations, with economic pressures shaping its approach to regional engagement and conflict resolution.
Simultaneously, Turkey faces mounting domestic challenges stemming from its Kurdish population, whose grievances have been exacerbated by years of securitization and political marginalization. Efforts to address these issues through dialogue and reconciliation remain hampered by entrenched nationalist sentiments and the legacy of past conflicts. The interplay between domestic and regional Kurdish dynamics further complicates Ankara’s ability to devise a comprehensive strategy, as any concessions on the home front risk undermining its position in broader regional negotiations.
The intersection of these factors underscores the centrality of the Kurdish question in shaping Turkey’s regional strategy and international relations. As Ankara seeks to navigate this intricate web of challenges, its ability to achieve a sustainable resolution will hinge on its capacity to balance competing interests, manage domestic pressures, and assert its influence in an increasingly polarized geopolitical environment. The stakes are high, as the outcomes of these efforts will not only define Turkey’s role in the post-Assad Middle East but also shape its broader trajectory as a regional power in the years to come.
The Strategic Intent Behind Erdoğan’s Policies: Decoding Turkey’s Geopolitical Vision
The policies of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reveal a strategic ambition that transcends immediate political gains and navigates a complex interplay of domestic, regional, and global dynamics. Erdoğan’s political and geopolitical maneuvers have consistently aimed at solidifying Turkey’s position as a pivotal regional power while simultaneously addressing internal vulnerabilities. The overarching purpose behind his policies can be deciphered through a meticulous analysis of his administration’s actions, which collectively point to a multifaceted agenda aimed at reshaping Turkey’s identity, enhancing its global influence, and consolidating his own political dominance.
Erdoğan’s real purpose lies in reasserting Turkey’s historical and cultural significance as a dominant power in the Middle East and surrounding regions. This ambition is reflected in his emphasis on reviving a neo-Ottomanist vision that seeks to leverage Turkey’s strategic geography, cultural heritage, and economic potential to project influence across former Ottoman territories. The dismantling of the secular, Western-aligned foreign policy paradigm established under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk has been a cornerstone of Erdoğan’s strategy. His rhetoric and actions often appeal to a pan-Islamic audience, positioning Turkey as a defender of Muslim interests while fostering nationalist pride domestically. This dual approach enables Erdoğan to craft a unique narrative that resonates both at home and abroad.
Domestically, Erdoğan’s policies are aimed at consolidating his grip on power through a combination of economic populism, political centralization, and cultural reshaping. By leveraging large-scale infrastructure projects, including bridges, airports, and energy pipelines, Erdoğan has sought to portray himself as a transformative leader who has elevated Turkey’s economic and strategic standing. However, these projects also serve as instruments of patronage, reinforcing loyalty among business elites and political allies. Simultaneously, Erdoğan’s increasing reliance on authoritarian measures, such as curbing press freedoms, suppressing dissent, and expanding the powers of the presidency, underscores his intent to centralize authority and minimize opposition.
Regionally, Erdoğan’s foreign policy reflects a calculated effort to position Turkey as an indispensable player in key geopolitical arenas. His administration has pursued a proactive approach, often described as “strategic autonomy,” to assert Turkey’s independence from traditional alliances such as NATO while cultivating ties with non-Western powers like Russia and China. This approach is evident in Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which challenged its NATO commitments, and its participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. These actions signal Erdoğan’s intent to diversify Turkey’s alliances, reducing its dependence on Western powers while enhancing its leverage in global affairs.
In the Middle East, Erdoğan’s policies reveal a dual objective: countering perceived threats and expanding Turkey’s sphere of influence. His administration’s military interventions in Syria, Libya, and northern Iraq underscore a commitment to securing Turkey’s borders and neutralizing groups it views as threats, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates. However, these interventions also serve a broader purpose by enabling Turkey to establish a foothold in strategically vital regions, allowing it to shape post-conflict governance structures and resource distribution. Erdoğan’s support for political Islam, exemplified by his backing of groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, further highlights his ambition to influence ideological currents across the Arab world.
On the global stage, Erdoğan’s purpose is to elevate Turkey’s status as a global powerbroker capable of mediating conflicts and influencing international institutions. His administration’s active engagement in the United Nations, G20, and other multilateral forums reflects this ambition. Erdoğan’s rhetoric often emphasizes the need for a more equitable global order, critiquing Western dominance and advocating for reforms in institutions like the United Nations Security Council. This narrative aligns with his broader strategy of positioning Turkey as a voice for emerging economies and marginalized nations, enhancing its soft power while challenging the status quo.
Economic policies under Erdoğan also reveal a dual strategy aimed at both growth and control. While promoting rapid urbanization and industrialization, his administration has increasingly relied on unorthodox monetary policies, such as low-interest rates despite high inflation, to maintain short-term economic stability. These policies, though criticized for undermining economic fundamentals, reflect Erdoğan’s prioritization of political loyalty over technocratic governance. By maintaining control over key economic levers, Erdoğan ensures that economic discontent does not translate into political instability, reinforcing his long-term hold on power.
Erdoğan’s handling of the Kurdish issue provides further insight into his strategic objectives. While his early years in power were marked by efforts at reconciliation, the breakdown of the peace process in 2015 marked a turning point toward a more securitized approach. This shift reflects Erdoğan’s recognition of the Kurdish question as both a domestic and regional challenge, requiring a dual strategy of suppression and co-optation. Domestically, this has involved marginalizing pro-Kurdish political movements and intensifying military operations in Kurdish-majority areas. Regionally, Erdoğan’s focus has been on dismantling Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria and Iraq, aligning with his broader goal of maintaining Turkey’s territorial integrity and countering separatist narratives.
Erdoğan’s ultimate purpose can also be discerned in his vision for a redefined Turkish identity that merges Islamic values with nationalist pride. This vision is encapsulated in symbolic actions such as the conversion of Hagia Sophia from a museum back into a mosque, signaling a departure from Turkey’s secularist traditions and a return to its Islamic heritage. By intertwining religion and nationalism, Erdoğan seeks to consolidate a cohesive national identity that supports his broader geopolitical ambitions.
In essence, Erdoğan’s policies reflect a grand strategy aimed at positioning Turkey as a leading power in a multipolar world while ensuring his political survival. His approach is characterized by adaptability, pragmatism, and a willingness to challenge established norms, both domestically and internationally. As Turkey navigates the complexities of the post-Assad Middle East and an increasingly polarized global order, Erdoğan’s vision for the country will continue to shape its trajectory, balancing the aspirations of a resurgent regional power with the realities of a deeply interconnected world.
