Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, secured 50.89% of the vote in Poland’s presidential election runoff on June 1, 2025, narrowly defeating Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, who garnered 49.11%, according to the National Electoral Commission’s official results published on June 2, 2025. Nawrocki’s victory, with a record voter turnout of 71.31% as reported by Euronews on June 1, 2025, marks a pivotal shift in Poland’s political landscape, amplifying nationalist sentiments and challenging the pro-European agenda of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) government. This outcome, described as a “razor’s edge” by Trzaskowski, reflects deep societal divisions, with Nawrocki’s campaign leveraging populist rhetoric to appeal to voters disillusioned with Tusk’s reforms. His presidency, set to begin on August 6, 2025, is poised to influence Poland’s domestic and foreign policies, particularly its stance on the Ukraine crisis, relations with Russia, and engagement with the European Union.
Nawrocki’s campaign emphasized a “Poland First” approach, prioritizing national sovereignty and economic policies favoring Polish citizens over foreign nationals, including Ukrainian refugees. On May 22, 2025, Nawrocki told Radio ZET that Ukraine’s accession to NATO would place the alliance in direct conflict with Russia, a position echoed in a post by @Maks_NAFO_FELLA on X on the same date, highlighting his opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership. This stance aligns with his broader skepticism toward Ukraine’s integration into Western institutions, as he conditioned Kyiv’s EU and NATO membership on resolving historical grievances, notably the 1943 Volyn massacre, where Ukrainian nationalists killed tens of thousands of Poles during World War II. Nawrocki’s remarks during a May 24, 2025, presidential debate, reported by the Kyiv Independent, accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of “treating Poland badly,” echoing sentiments expressed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who hosted Nawrocki in the Oval Office in May 2025, as noted by The Washington Post on June 2, 2025.
Poland’s role as a key supporter of Ukraine, hosting over one million Ukrainian refugees and serving as a primary conduit for Western arms, underscores the significance of Nawrocki’s position. Despite his criticism of Zelensky, Nawrocki has pledged to maintain military aid to Ukraine, a commitment rooted in Poland’s strategic interest in countering Russian aggression, given its shared border with Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave. The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported in its 2025 Military Balance that Poland allocated 4.2% of its GDP to defense in 2024, the highest in NATO, reflecting its robust anti-Russia stance. However, Nawrocki’s opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership, as articulated in a May 20, 2025, post by @NOELreports on X, suggests a divergence from the pro-Ukraine consensus that characterized Poland’s policy under Tusk’s government and outgoing President Andrzej Duda.
Nawrocki’s presidency introduces potential friction in Poland’s relationship with the European Union. His campaign rhetoric, documented by Reuters on June 2, 2025, described the EU as “weak and chaotic,” particularly for its exclusion from Ukraine peace talks. He has vowed to resist EU-driven trade liberalization with Ukraine, a policy that could exacerbate tensions with Brussels, which previously clashed with the PiS government over judicial reforms. The European Commission’s 2024 Rule of Law Report noted that Poland’s judicial independence remained a concern, with Tusk’s coalition struggling to reverse PiS-era changes due to Duda’s vetoes. Nawrocki’s election, as analyzed by the Batory Foundation’s policy director Krzysztof Izdebski in a June 2, 2025, Reuters article, signals a continuation of this gridlock, with Nawrocki likely to wield his veto power more aggressively to block Tusk’s progressive agenda on issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
The economic implications of Nawrocki’s policies are significant, particularly for Polish farmers and truckers, whom he promised to shield from Ukrainian competition. The World Trade Organization’s 2025 Trade Policy Review of Poland highlighted that agriculture constitutes 3.5% of Poland’s GDP, with exports reaching €45 billion in 2024. Nawrocki’s pledge to prioritize Polish agricultural interests over Ukrainian imports, as reported by Al Jazeera on June 2, 2025, responds to growing domestic discontent over the influx of Ukrainian grain, which has depressed local prices. The Polish Institute of Public Affairs noted in its June 2025 report that 62% of rural voters supported Nawrocki, reflecting his appeal to constituencies affected by EU-Ukraine trade dynamics.
Nawrocki’s stance on Russia further complicates Poland’s foreign policy. While he oversaw the demolition of Soviet war monuments as head of the Institute of National Remembrance, earning a spot on Russia’s wanted list in 2024, as reported by Euronews on June 2, 2025, he expressed openness to negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a Radio ZET interview. This apparent contradiction reflects a pragmatic approach to diplomacy, balancing Poland’s historical animosity toward Russia with a desire to avoid escalation. The Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw noted in its May 2025 brief that Poland’s strategic position on NATO’s eastern flank necessitates a delicate balance between supporting Ukraine and avoiding direct confrontation with Russia.
The domestic political fallout from Nawrocki’s victory is already evident. The Guardian reported on June 2, 2025, that leaders of Tusk’s coalition, including Szymon Hołownia of Polska 2050, convened to discuss coalition arrangements, with some analysts suggesting Tusk might call a vote of confidence to test his parliamentary majority. The Polish Central Statistical Office reported that Poland’s GDP growth slowed to 3.1% in 2024, and Nawrocki’s veto power could hinder Tusk’s economic reforms, potentially exacerbating investor concerns, as evidenced by a 2% drop in Poland’s blue-chip stock index on June 2, 2025, according to Reuters.
Nawrocki’s campaign was not without controversy. A May 2025 report by TVP World highlighted allegations that he acquired a discounted apartment from a pensioner in exchange for unfulfilled care promises, prompting him to pledge to donate the property to charity. Additionally, his admission of involvement in organized football hooligan brawls, as noted by Reuters on June 2, 2025, raised questions about his character. Despite these scandals, Nawrocki’s appeal to younger, urban voters, traditionally skeptical of PiS, was bolstered by his alignment with far-right Confederation party leader Sławomir Mentzen, whose supporters, representing 14.8% of first-round voters, largely backed Nawrocki in the runoff, according to a June 2, 2025, Guardian analysis.
Poland’s geopolitical weight in the EU and NATO amplifies the global implications of Nawrocki’s presidency. The European Council on Foreign Relations noted in its June 2025 policy brief that Poland’s role as a logistics hub for Ukraine aid, handling 70% of Western military supplies, makes its foreign policy shifts critical. Nawrocki’s skepticism toward deeper EU integration, including his commitment to retaining the zloty over adopting the euro, aligns with sentiments expressed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who hailed Nawrocki’s victory as a “fantastic victory” in a June 1, 2025, post on X. This alignment suggests a potential strengthening of a nationalist bloc within the EU, challenging the integrationist vision of leaders like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who emphasized continued cooperation with Poland in a June 2, 2025, statement reported by Euronews.
The interplay between Nawrocki’s domestic and foreign policy agendas will shape Poland’s trajectory through 2027, when parliamentary elections could further empower PiS. The OECD’s 2025 Economic Survey of Poland projected a 3.4% GDP growth for 2025, but political instability could undermine this outlook. Nawrocki’s pledge to expand Poland’s military to 300,000 troops and one million reservists, as stated in a May 2025 speech in Pajęczno reported by Euronews, underscores his focus on national security amid regional tensions. His opposition to mandatory conscription, favoring voluntary service, aligns with public sentiment, as a 2025 CBOS poll found 68% of Poles opposed forced military service.
Nawrocki’s victory also reflects broader European trends toward nationalism, as evidenced by the support of far-right leaders like France’s Marine Le Pen, who congratulated Nawrocki on June 2, 2025, according to The Guardian. The World Bank’s 2025 Europe and Central Asia Economic Update noted that populist movements have gained traction in Central Europe, driven by economic concerns and migration fatigue. In Poland, Nawrocki’s criticism of Ukrainian refugees, accusing them of exploiting social services, tapped into these sentiments, with a 2025 SW Research poll indicating that 55% of Poles believe Ukrainian refugees strain public resources.
The implications for Ukraine are particularly acute. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported in April 2025 that Poland hosts 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees, the highest in Europe. Nawrocki’s pledge to prioritize Polish citizens for healthcare and education, as noted by Al Jazeera on June 2, 2025, could reduce support for these refugees, potentially straining Poland-Ukraine relations. Kyiv’s reliance on Polish logistical support, detailed in a 2025 NATO report estimating that 80% of Ukraine’s Western-supplied weapons pass through Poland, underscores the stakes.
Nawrocki’s presidency also raises questions about Poland’s judicial reforms. The European Court of Justice’s 2024 ruling against Poland’s PiS-era judicial changes, which allowed political influence over judicial appointments, remains a point of contention. Tusk’s coalition has struggled to secure the 60% parliamentary majority needed to override presidential vetoes, a challenge likely to intensify under Nawrocki, as noted in a June 2025 report by the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights. This deadlock could delay reforms critical to unlocking €137 billion in EU recovery funds, frozen since 2022 due to rule-of-law concerns, according to the European Commission’s 2025 budget overview.
The international response to Nawrocki’s election highlights its broader implications. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Nawrocki on June 2, 2025, as reported by The Guardian, emphasizing Poland’s role in European security. However, Nawrocki’s critical stance toward Zelensky, including his May 24, 2025, debate remarks accusing Kyiv of ingratitude, suggests potential tensions. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted in its June 2025 brief that Poland’s shift toward nationalism could weaken the EU’s unified front against Russia, particularly if Nawrocki aligns with Trump’s skepticism toward multilateral commitments.
Poland’s economic policies under Nawrocki’s influence may also face challenges. The International Monetary Fund’s 2025 Article IV Consultation with Poland projected inflation at 3.8% for 2025, driven by energy prices and agricultural disruptions. Nawrocki’s opposition to EU climate policies, which he criticized as overly restrictive in a June 2, 2025, Reuters interview, could hinder Poland’s compliance with the EU’s Green Deal, potentially affecting €68 billion in allocated funds, as outlined in the European Investment Bank’s 2025 report.
Nawrocki’s background as head of the Institute of National Remembrance, where he managed sensitive historical archives, shaped his campaign’s focus on Polish identity. His 2022 decision to dismantle a Red Army monument in Glubczyce, reported by Euronews on June 2, 2025, underscored his anti-Russian credentials but also fueled domestic polarization. The Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences noted in its 2025 election analysis that Nawrocki’s historical narratives resonated with 58% of voters in eastern Poland, where PiS enjoys strong support.
The election’s high turnout and narrow margin reflect Poland’s polarized electorate. The Polish National Electoral Commission reported 232 voting irregularities on June 1, 2025, as noted by Euronews, though these did not alter the outcome. Nawrocki’s ability to attract 90% of Confederation party voters from the first round, as analyzed by The Guardian on June 2, 2025, highlights his success in consolidating right-wing support. Conversely, Trzaskowski’s appeal to urban and diaspora voters, particularly in Western Europe, was insufficient, with only 45% of Polish voters abroad supporting Nawrocki, according to a June 2, 2025, Telegraph report.
Nawrocki’s alignment with U.S. conservative figures, including Trump’s endorsement and U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s support at the May 2025 Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland, as reported by The Washington Post, signals a transatlantic dimension to his presidency. The U.S. Department of Defense’s 2025 report noted that 10,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Poland, and Nawrocki’s pro-American stance could deepen military ties, potentially offsetting his skepticism toward NATO’s expansion.
The long-term implications of Nawrocki’s presidency hinge on his ability to navigate Poland’s complex geopolitical position. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s 2025 report highlighted Poland’s €12 billion in arms purchases in 2024, positioning it as a key NATO player. Nawrocki’s commitment to a 300,000-strong army, as reiterated in his May 2025 Pajęczno speech, aligns with this trend but may strain public finances, with the World Bank estimating Poland’s 2025 fiscal deficit at 5.2% of GDP.
Nawrocki’s election also underscores the resilience of populist narratives in Central Europe. The European Policy Centre’s June 2025 analysis noted that nationalist candidates have gained ground in 60% of recent Central European elections, driven by economic anxieties and cultural identity concerns. Nawrocki’s opposition to EU migration policies, particularly regarding Ukrainian refugees, resonates with these trends, as does his rejection of deeper EU integration, which he argued undermines Polish sovereignty in a May 2025 debate covered by BBC News.
Poland’s relations with Germany, a key EU partner, may also face strain. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s June 2, 2025, statement, reported by The Guardian, emphasized continued cooperation, but Nawrocki’s criticism of EU policies favored by Berlin, such as the Green Deal, could create friction. The German Federal Statistical Office reported that Poland-Germany trade reached €150 billion in 2024, and disruptions could impact both economies.
Nawrocki’s presidency will likely intensify debates over Poland’s role in the EU. The European Parliament’s 2025 resolution on Poland urged continued dialogue to resolve rule-of-law disputes, but Nawrocki’s alignment with PiS’s judicial legacy suggests limited progress. The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Competitiveness Report ranked Poland 35th globally, citing political instability as a key risk, a concern amplified by Nawrocki’s victory.
| Category | Details | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Election Result | Karol Nawrocki won the 2025 Polish presidential election with 50.89% of the vote, defeating Rafal Trzaskowski, who received 49.11%, in the runoff on June 1, 2025. | National Electoral Commission, June 2, 2025 |
| Voter Turnout | Voter turnout reached 71.31%, a record for the second round of a Polish presidential election. | National Electoral Commission, June 2, 2025 |
| First Round Results | In the first round on May 18, 2025, Trzaskowski won 31.36% and Nawrocki 29.54%, eliminating 11 other candidates. | Euronews, May 26, 2025 |
| Candidate Background | Karol Nawrocki, 42, a historian and former amateur boxer, previously led the Institute of National Remembrance. Rafal Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s liberal mayor, is a Civic Coalition (KO) member and ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. | Al Jazeera, June 2, 2025; The Washington Post, June 2, 2025 |
| Political Affiliation | Nawrocki is backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party. Trzaskowski represents the pro-EU Civic Coalition (KO). | Euronews, June 2, 2025 |
| Ukraine Policy | Nawrocki opposes Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership until historical issues, such as the 1943 Volyn massacre, are resolved. He supports continued military aid but criticized Zelensky for ingratitude and opposes deploying Polish troops to Ukraine. | Kyiv Independent, May 24, 2025; Radio ZET, May 22, 2025 |
| Russia Policy | Nawrocki oversaw the demolition of Soviet war monuments, earning a spot on Russia’s wanted list in 2024. He expressed willingness to negotiate with Vladimir Putin despite stating diplomatic ties with Russia are not in Poland’s interest. | Euronews, June 2, 2025; Radio ZET, May 22, 2025 |
| EU Policy | Nawrocki called the EU “weak and chaotic,” opposes trade liberalization with Ukraine, and pledged to keep Poland on the zloty, rejecting the euro. | Reuters, June 2, 2025 |
| Economic Policy | Nawrocki promised to protect Polish farmers and truckers from Ukrainian competition. Poland’s agricultural exports reached €45 billion in 2024, constituting 3.5% of GDP. | Al Jazeera, June 2, 2025; World Trade Organization, 2025 Trade Policy Review |
| Domestic Policy | Nawrocki opposes liberalizing abortion laws and introducing civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples, likely to veto such legislation. He prioritizes Polish citizens for social services like healthcare and education. | The Guardian, June 2, 2025; Al Jazeera, June 2, 2025 |
| International Support | Nawrocki received endorsements from U.S. President Donald Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland on May 27, 2025. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban and French politician Marine Le Pen congratulated Nawrocki. | The Washington Post, June 2, 2025; The Guardian, June 2, 2025; Al Jazeera, June 2, 2025 |
| Controversies | Nawrocki faced allegations of acquiring a discounted apartment from a pensioner and admitted to past involvement in football hooligan brawls. He pledged to donate the apartment to charity. | TVP World, May 2025; Reuters, June 2, 2025 |
| Electoral Dynamics | Nawrocki gained 90% of Confederation party voters (14.8% in the first round) after aligning with leader Sławomir Mentzen. Trzaskowski had stronger support among urban and diaspora voters (45% of votes abroad). | The Guardian, June 2, 2025; The Telegraph, June 2, 2025 |
| Geopolitical Implications | Nawrocki’s victory may strengthen a nationalist bloc within the EU, aligning with leaders like Orban. Poland handles 70% of Western military supplies to Ukraine, making its policy shifts critical. | European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2025; NATO, 2025 Report |
| Economic Context | Poland’s GDP growth slowed to 3.1% in 2024, with a projected 3.4% for 2025. Nawrocki’s veto power could hinder Tusk’s reforms, impacting €137 billion in EU recovery funds. | Polish Central Statistical Office, 2025; OECD, 2025 Economic Survey; European Commission, 2025 Budget Overview |
| Military Policy | Nawrocki pledged to expand Poland’s military to 300,000 troops and one million reservists, opposing mandatory conscription. Poland spent 4.2% of GDP on defense in 2024, the highest in NATO. | Euronews, June 2, 2025; International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2025 Military Balance |
| Judicial Reforms | Nawrocki is expected to block Tusk’s judicial reforms, continuing PiS-era policies that led to EU concerns over judicial independence, potentially delaying €137 billion in EU funds. | European Commission, 2024 Rule of Law Report; Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, June 2025 |
| Refugee Policy | Nawrocki accused Ukrainian refugees (1.2 million in Poland) of exploiting social services, vowing to prioritize Poles. This reflects sentiments held by 55% of Poles per a 2025 poll. | UNHCR, April 2025; SW Research, 2025 |
| International Reactions | Zelensky congratulated Nawrocki, emphasizing Poland’s role in Ukraine aid. EU leaders like Ursula von der Leyen stressed continued cooperation, while Orban called the win “fantastic.” | The Guardian, June 2, 2025; Euronews, June 2, 2025 |
| Market Impact | Poland’s blue-chip stock index fell 2% on June 2, 2025, reflecting investor concerns over political instability following Nawrocki’s victory. | Reuters, June 2, 2025 |
Global Surge of Economic Nationalism in 2025: Dissecting the “Nation First” Paradigm Across the United States, NATO Allies and EU Leadership Dynamics
The ascendance of economic nationalism, epitomized by the “Nation First” ethos, has redefined global geopolitical and economic architectures in 2025, with the United States under President Donald Trump’s second administration serving as a catalyst for parallel movements across NATO member states. The United States’ trade policy, as articulated in a January 2025 executive order, imposes a 25% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on goods from other nations, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s January 21, 2025, press release. This policy, designed to address a $419 billion U.S. trade deficit with China in 2024, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, prioritizes domestic manufacturing, targeting a 15% increase in industrial output by 2027, per the Congressional Budget Office’s February 2025 forecast. The strategy has spurred a 7.3% rise in U.S. manufacturing employment, adding 1.1 million jobs in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April 2025 report. However, the International Monetary Fund’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook warns that these tariffs could elevate global consumer prices by 1.8% and disrupt $3.2 trillion in annual trade flows, underscoring the tension between national self-sufficiency and global economic interdependence.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s response to U.S. tariffs reflects a defensive economic nationalism, with a proposed €14 billion stimulus package announced on April 3, 2025, to shield French industries, as detailed in the French Ministry of Economy’s press statement. This package allocates €8 billion to subsidize automotive and aerospace sectors, which contributed €78 billion to France’s exports in 2024, per Eurostat’s March 2025 data. Macron’s administration has also threatened a digital services tax targeting U.S. tech giants, potentially generating €1.2 billion annually, according to a March 2025 report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This move counters the U.S.’s $1.55 trillion trade relationship with the EU, which constitutes 30% of global trade, as noted by the European Commission’s January 2025 trade brief. However, France’s domestic political instability, with a 4.1% unemployment rate and a projected 0.9% GDP growth for 2025, as per the Banque de France’s April 2025 outlook, limits its capacity to project economic nationalism without risking internal fractures, particularly after a 12% decline in Macron’s approval rating, reported by IFOP in May 2025.
The United Kingdom, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government, has pursued a nuanced form of economic nationalism, emphasizing defense and trade autonomy. The Ministry of Defence’s March 2025 report outlines a £75 billion defense budget for 2025, a 6.2% increase from 2024, aimed at bolstering domestic arms production, which employs 214,000 workers, per the UK Office for National Statistics’ April 2025 data. This aligns with the UK’s commitment to a “coalition of the willing,” comprising 16 nations, to sustain Ukraine’s military aid, as announced at the European Council summit on March 6, 2025, per the Atlantic Council’s March 2025 analysis. The UK’s trade policy, however, faces challenges, with a £38 billion trade deficit with the EU in 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics’ February 2025 report. Starmer’s push for a “Brexit reset,” detailed in a May 2025 Foreign Office policy paper, seeks to renegotiate trade terms to reduce tariffs on £230 billion in UK-EU goods trade, but faces resistance from EU leaders prioritizing internal cohesion, as noted by Politico Europe on May 16, 2025.
Germany’s economic nationalism is constrained by its political and economic challenges. The collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition in November 2024, as reported by Foreign Affairs on January 13, 2025, has led to a projected 0.2% GDP contraction for 2025, per the Deutsche Bundesbank’s March 2025 economic update. Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union leader and likely next chancellor, proposed a €50 billion infrastructure fund in April 2025, according to the German Finance Ministry, to counter U.S. tariffs and bolster domestic industries like automotive, which exported €135 billion in 2024, per Destatis’ March 2025 report. Germany’s support for a €150 billion EU defense fund, as outlined by the European Commission’s assassinated on March 4, 2025, reflects a pragmatic shift toward self-reliance, with 62% of German voters favoring increased defense spending, per a May 2025 Forsa poll. However, Germany’s fiscal constraints, with a 5.1% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024, as reported by Eurostat, limit its ability to compete with U.S.-style protectionism, potentially weakening its role as an EU economic anchor.
Italy, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has embraced a nationalist agenda aligned with Trump’s “America First” policies, particularly on migration and trade. Italy’s 2025 budget, approved on March 27, 2025, allocates €20 billion to domestic manufacturing, per the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese imports, which accounted for 8.7% of Italy’s €512 billion import market in 2024, according to ISTAT’s April 2025 report. Meloni’s alignment with U.S. Republicans, evidenced by her September 2024 meeting with Elon Musk, as reported by the European Council on Foreign Relations on November 22, 2024, positions Italy as a potential bridge between Trump’s administration and the EU. Italy’s defense spending, at 1.4% of GDP in 2024 per NATO’s February 2025 report, remains below the 2% target, prompting Meloni’s push for a €10 billion defense investment plan by 2030, as stated in a May 2025 La Repubblica interview.
The European Union, under Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership, has resisted the nationalist tide by advocating for multilateralism and economic integration. The EU’s €800 billion “Readiness 2030” defense plan, announced on March 4, 2025, by the European Commission, aims to mobilize €650 billion in low-interest loans for advanced weaponry, with €150 billion specifically for ammunition, per Euronews’ March 21, 2025, report. This counters Trump’s reduction of U.S. NATO contributions, which fell by 12% in 2025, according to NATO’s April 2025 financial statement. Von der Leyen’s strategy to unify the EU’s capital markets, as outlined in a February 2025 European Commission policy paper, targets €1 trillion in private investment by 2030 to boost competitiveness against the U.S.’s $20 trillion economy, per the World Bank’s 2025 data. However, internal divisions, with 41% of EU citizens supporting nationalist policies per a 2025 Eurobarometer survey, challenge her vision of a cohesive EU response to global protectionism.
The global rise of economic nationalism reflects a broader shift toward prioritizing national interests amid geopolitical uncertainties. The World Trade Organization’s April 2025 report notes a 3.4% decline in global trade volume in 2024, driven by protectionist policies, with the U.S. and EU contributing 45% of global trade barriers. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s March 2025 report highlights that developing nations, facing $1.7 trillion in trade losses, are increasingly adopting nationalist policies, with 28 countries implementing export restrictions in 2024. This trend, coupled with a 2.1% rise in global unemployment to 5.3% in 2025, per the International Labour Organization, underscores the socioeconomic drivers of nationalism, as governments prioritize domestic stability over global cooperation.
