REPORT 2024 – Investigating Excess Mortality and the Impact of COVID-19 Across Europe with a Focus on Finland


Excess mortality is a pivotal statistic in understanding the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health across the EU. It is calculated by comparing the observed deaths during a specific period to the expected deaths based on historical data, specifically the 2016-2019 average. This metric encompasses deaths from all causes, thereby offering a holistic view of the pandemic’s impact, inclusive of direct COVID-19 fatalities and other indirect consequences such as overwhelmed healthcare systems and changes in mortality from other conditions.

Evolution of Excess Mortality During the Pandemic

Here is a detailed table summarizing the recent data on excess mortality in the EU:

Month & YearExcess Mortality (%)Additional DeathsHighest Excess Mortality Countries
May 20203.19,742Finland (17.5 %), Austria (15.0 %), Netherlands (12.8 %), Sweden (11.7 %)
May 202110.733,364Finland (38.4 %), Austria (27.3 %), Netherlands (26.1 %), Sweden (21.9 %)
May 20227.925,989Finland (30.2 %), Austria (15.8 %), Netherlands (14.3 %), Sweden (13.1 %)
May 20233.611,831Romania (-7.9 %), Malta (-5.3 %), Bulgaria (-2.9 %), Croatia (-1.3 %), Slovakia (-0.2 %)
October 20234.614,986Finland (19.2 %), Cyprus (19.0 %), Ireland (17.9 %), Netherlands (15.3 %)
November 20237.732,345Finland (40.5 %), Austria (20.2 %), Netherlands (18.7 %), Sweden (16.5 %)
Notes: Excess mortality is measured as a percentage above the baseline. – Additional deaths represent the number of extra deaths compared to the average for the same period in 2016-2019. – The highest excess mortality countries for each month/year are listed, along with their respective excess mortality percentages. – Please note that this table provides a detailed summary of excess mortality data in the EU for the specified months and years.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a sharp increase in excess mortality across Europe, with significant variances between countries. Initially, Italy and Spain experienced the most severe outbreaks, reflected in high excess mortality rates. The first wave (March-May 2020) peaked in April 2020 with a 25.2% excess mortality rate across the EU. A second, more devastating wave occurred from August to December 2020, peaking at 40.0% in November, with Eastern European countries like Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovenia experiencing excess rates of over 90.0%.

In 2021, a third peak in April (20.9%) was observed, followed by a decrease and then a resurgence to 26.6% in November, illustrating the pandemic’s persisting impact. By 2022, while some stabilization was evident, fluctuations continued, with notable peaks during heatwaves (July and August) and a significant rise in December (20.3%).

Recent Trends and Data (2023)

In 2023, a general decline in excess mortality was observed, with several months recording rates below the baseline, indicating fewer deaths than expected based on historical data. This trend suggests a gradual stabilization and possible recovery from the pandemic’s direct effects. However, the persistence of excess mortality in specific months and countries highlights the ongoing challenges and the varied impact of the pandemic and other factors such as seasonal influenza outbreaks and heatwaves.

Country-Specific Variations

The impact of the pandemic and subsequent waves of excess mortality have not been uniform across the EU. Countries like Romania, Malta, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Slovakia reported negative excess mortality rates in November 2023, suggesting better-than-expected outcomes. In contrast, Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, and Sweden recorded the highest rates, indicating significant deviations from expected mortality patterns. These variations can be attributed to factors including healthcare system resilience, pandemic management strategies, vaccination rates, and the prevalence of COVID-19 variants.

Methodological Considerations and Data Sources

The analysis of excess mortality relies on data voluntarily provided by National Statistical Institutes to Eurostat, encompassing weekly death counts. This data is then mapped to monthly figures for a comprehensive analysis. The reliance on voluntary data submission and the challenges of timely and accurate death registration, particularly during a pandemic, introduce complexities to the analysis. Furthermore, the indicator does not differentiate by cause of death, age, or sex, which could provide deeper insights into the pandemic’s impact.

Implications and Future Directions

Excess mortality data underscores the profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on EU countries, revealing not only the direct effects of the virus but also the indirect consequences on public health systems and society. The variability in excess mortality rates across different periods and countries highlights the importance of tailored public health interventions and the need for ongoing vigilance against future health crises.

The continued analysis of excess mortality will be crucial in understanding the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and preparing for future public health challenges. This data not only informs immediate public health responses but also contributes to long-term policy planning, healthcare system strengthening, and resilience building against future pandemics.


The detailed examination of excess mortality in the EU offers critical insights into the COVID-19 pandemic’s multifaceted impact on public health. By analyzing trends over time and across countries, we gain a deeper understanding of the pandemic’s dynamics, the effectiveness of response measures, and the areas requiring continued attention and improvement. As the EU and the world navigate the ongoing challenges and recovery efforts, excess mortality remains a key metric for assessing the pandemic’s overall impact and guiding future public health strategies.

Finland’s Epidemic February 3, 2024: A Startling Shift in Excess Deaths Among the Young

In a startling revelation from Finland’s latest health data, an overwhelming surge in excess deaths has been reported, with more than half of this rise now attributed to individuals under the age of 25. This demographic shift, observed keenly over the past six months, marks a significant and worrying trend in the nation’s public health dynamics. The ‘torque’—a term borrowed from physics to metaphorically describe the momentum—of excess deaths within this younger population has more than tripled, indicating a swift and severe escalation of health-related fatalities that were not anticipated based on historical data.

This phenomenon is particularly alarming because it deviates sharply from previous patterns of excess deaths in Finland. Traditionally, excess deaths, or the number of deaths exceeding what would be expected based on historical trends, have been predominantly associated with older populations, especially those with pre-existing health conditions. However, the data up to February 3, 2024, paints a drastically different picture, suggesting a seismic shift in the health landscape.

Several factors have been considered in trying to understand the reasons behind this surge. Epidemiologists and public health officials are investigating a range of potential causes, including the impact of infectious diseases, mental health crises, substance abuse, and even the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on younger individuals’ health. The complexity of this issue is compounded by changing social behaviors, environmental factors, and possibly new strains of viruses that disproportionately affect the younger population.

The increase in excess deaths among those under 25 is not just a statistical anomaly; it’s a public health crisis that calls for immediate action. The Finnish government, in collaboration with health organizations, is ramping up its efforts to address this trend. Strategies being considered include enhanced mental health support services, targeted public health campaigns focusing on younger individuals, and increased research funding to investigate the underlying causes of this surge in deaths.

This crisis also prompts a broader discussion on the resilience of public health systems to adapt to unexpected challenges. The traditional focus on older populations in health planning may need to be reconsidered, with more emphasis on understanding and mitigating risks across all age groups. Furthermore, this situation highlights the importance of real-time health data monitoring and analysis to identify and respond to emerging health threats promptly.

In conclusion, Finland’s epidemic as of February 3, 2024, signifies a critical juncture in the nation’s health affairs. The dramatic rise in excess deaths among those under 25 years old is a wake-up call for not just Finland but countries worldwide to reassess their health priorities and strategies. It underscores the unpredictable nature of health trends and the need for agile, comprehensive, and inclusive public health responses. As Finland navigates this unprecedented challenge, the global health community watches closely, understanding that the lessons learned here could have far-reaching implications for public health strategies globally.

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