America is expected to have its worst SARS-CoV-2 Summer

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In the last 24 hours, a total of 144,258 new COVID-19 infections and 420 new COVID-19 deaths were reported for the United States. https://charts.medriva.com/us

In the last 10 days , figures have been hovering above the 100,000 benchmark for daily new SARS-CoV-2 infections and many health experts are warning that the real figures could be must higher almost 7 to 8 fold as many states are not reporting figures and testing is not available in many places coupled with rapid antigen test kits are not being included in certain states and in some places, individuals do not even bother to report their home test results.
 
The current surge in America is still in its infant stages and is being driven by the new BA.2.12.1 variant that is now responsible for almost 55.2% of all daily genomic sequencings. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard
 
Hospitalizations rates are increasing and many states are expected to run of hospital beds and ICU beds in about 10-14 days’ time. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/HospitalCapacity-USA/HospitalCapacity
 
This summer is expected to witness a more vicious SARS-CoV-2 surge compared to the summers in 2020 and 2021 as the new BA.2.12.1 variant is far more transmissible and evasive to both natural immunity and also vaccine induced immunity coupled with the fact that it is already developing resistance to existing antivirals.
 
To make matters worse this summer, the surge is expected to be long as already in queue are the BA.4 and BA.5 variants and their concerning emerging subvariants ie BE.1 and BF.1 that will cause reinfection even in those infected with the BA.2.12.1 variant.

Expect reinfections occurring with shorter intervals and expect clinical manifestations in every reinfection to be far worse than the previous.

The BA.4 has been detected in at least 30 countries, and BA.5 has been sampled in 32 countries, according to the website Outbreak.info, which is maintained by the Scripps Research Institute. https://outbreak.info/

The map above shows the risk of infection in each state based on new daily cases per capita. The consortium of researchers and public health experts who developed these risk levels advises states in the red and orange categories to issue stay-home orders and/or implement rigorous testing and contact tracing. Yellow states should keep up testing and contact tracing as well as social distancing and mask usage.


 

1 COMMENT

  1. COVID hospitalizations have more than doubled in the past 2 weeks in Oregon. I had to do some digging into the biweekly state reports to find that out–you would never know it from mainstream media silence.

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